Program expectations + reality

I think a lot of discussion will be had over the next month or more about:

-Where the program is.
-Where the program should be.
-Where the program is going.

In the next 4 years what are your expectations for this program?

What is threshold you consider this team should reach annually?

X Wins
X Place
NCAA Appearance?
NIT Appearance?
1 win, 2 wins, 3 wins in tourney?

3 ncaa appearences win first rd game in 2/3 sweet 16 the other.

I think the run Mike Brey has had in ND during his 15 yrs there is what id like.

This is what I asked of Lavin when we brought him on 5 years ago:

1. Make the tournament half the time
2. Be in contention for a bid every year
3. Make a sweet 16 or beyond one out of every 3 years with a bid

Consistent, moderate success with the occasional deep run.

Next four years, realistically, will include at least 1 year where we have basically no chance at a bid. That's what kills momentum with more casual fans.

I think a lot of discussion will be had over the next month or more about:

-Where the program is.
-Where the program should be.
-Where the program is going.

In the next 4 years what are your expectations for this program?

What is threshold you consider this team should reach annually?

X Wins
X Place
NCAA Appearance?
NIT Appearance?
1 win, 2 wins, 3 wins in tourney?

Good thread. I would say:
~85 wins
should finish in the top 5 three of those years, and be in the top 1-2 at least one of those years.
3 ncaa appearances (or 2and a bubble)
Nit- don't care
Wins, those can be kind of a crap shoot, but I would say I would expect us not to have 10 seeds, I think we should be able to snag at least one 5+ seed and one 8+ seed.  That would put us in a position to win some tourney games.

These are higher expectations than I had when lavin arrived (he didn't really meet those, but he was pretty close). With the current recruiting class, I don't think he's positioned to meet my current expectations, but he still has some time I guess.

Again I would caution against the notion of needing a deep run in the NCAAs.

Again Nova last 4 years they missed the NCAAS in 2012, made it as a 9 seed in 2013 and have been a 2 and 1 seed the last 2 years with back to back regular season titles.

But they have a been a big disappointment in the NCAAs.

Are you telling me if SJU had a 4 year run like that Lavs would be in trouble because of a lack of a run in the NCAAs?

Again I would caution against the notion of needing a deep run in the NCAAs.

Again Nova last 4 years they missed the NCAAS in 2012, made it as a 9 seed in 2013 and have been a 2 and 1 seed the last 2 years with back to back regular season titles.

But they have a been a big disappointment in the NCAAs.

Are you telling me if SJU had a 4 year run like that Lavs would be in trouble because of a lack of a run in the NCAAs?

Nova and SJU are at two different places right now. If that was Lavin that would be amazing and he would defiantly receive an extension and everyone would be happy with that. I am curious to see what Nova thinks...Not saying the coach is in trouble but  Nova can't be happy either.  At least UCONN won the championship last year...

Quote from: fordham96 on March 22, 2015, 09:14:06 AM

Again I would caution against the notion of needing a deep run in the NCAAs.

Again Nova last 4 years they missed the NCAAS in 2012, made it as a 9 seed in 2013 and have been a 2 and 1 seed the last 2 years with back to back regular season titles.

But they have a been a big disappointment in the NCAAs.

Are you telling me if SJU had a 4 year run like that Lavs would be in trouble because of a lack of a run in the NCAAs?

Nova and SJU are at two different places right now. If that was Lavin that would be amazing and he would defiantly receive an extension and everyone would be happy with that. I am curious to see what Nova thinks...Not saying the coach is in trouble but  Nova can't be happy either.  At least UCONN won the championship last year...

Fordham's point is a fair & interesting one.

I believe in realistic baby steps at this point, so this is what I expect:
1)Have some semblance of a bench, I am tired of the ineligibles, suspended players, transfer rumor garbage. It seems that more often then not we are lacking in depth due to stupid reasons.
2)Minimum two tourney appearances, and be in contention for a bid all 4 years. Once you get in its kind of a crap-shoot as to whether you catch lightning in a bottle and advance far.

I think a lot of discussion will be had over the next month or more about:

-Where the program is.
-Where the program should be.
-Where the program is going.

In the next 4 years what are your expectations for this program?

What is threshold you consider this team should reach annually?

X Wins
X Place
NCAA Appearance?
NIT Appearance?
1 win, 2 wins, 3 wins in tourney?

Thresholds:
18 Wins in two NIT years, finish .500 and top half of Beast;
21 Wins in two NCAA years, finish top 4 of Beast;
1-2 two wins in NIT both years;
1 win in NCAA tourney both years, with one sweet 16 in the balance at the end of one of those years;


Firm, established recruiting pipeline set up moving forward from that point.


Reasonable?  I believe there are at least 2 coaches who currently could do that over a 5 year period. 

I wouldn't put this in a mission statement or anything like that, but:

I'd like the team to be more inconsistent!

Our fans are fond of saying that on the right day we can beat almost anyone, but that hasn't been true.   I could live with early exits from the conference and ncaa tournaments if we occasionally experienced the big win.

Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Duke, Nova etc.  20 wins is a very solid base, and I give credit to Lavin for that.  Its unrealistic to think we'll be a 25 win team every year.
But I'd like to experience the real highs once in awhile in order to offset the inevitable lows.    The closest we've come to that is beating a ranked Creighton team last year.  And this year it was besting Cuse, which let's be honest, meant more for us because theyve tourtured us for so long.  But they weren't a great team this season.   Beating them last year at MSG though, when they were #2 or whatever, that would've put us all on cloud nine for weeks!

The overall W-L record needs only to improve slightly, but I'd like to see us win a big game once a season, or make some kind of mini run in the BE tourny if we've had a "disappointing" season.

I wouldn't put this in a mission statement or anything like that, but:

I'd like the team to be more inconsistent!

Our fans are fond of saying that on the right day we can beat almost anyone, but that hasn't been true.   I could live with early exits from the conference and ncaa tournaments if we occasionally experienced the big win.

Wisconsin, Gonzaga, Duke, Nova etc.  20 wins is a very solid base, and I give credit to Lavin for that.  Its unrealistic to think we'll be a 25 win team every year.
But I'd like to experience the real highs once in awhile in order to offset the inevitable lows.    The closest we've come to that is beating a creighton team last year.  And this year it was besting Cuse, which let's be honest, meant more for us because theyvery tourtured us for so long.  But they weren't a good team this season.   

The overall w-l record need only improve slightly, but I'd like to see us win a big game once a season, or make some kind of mini run in the BE tourny.

Good expectations - I would take that reality too

Answers as follows:

-Where the program is? The program is better than where it was 5 years ago. However that's not good enough. 5 years ago SJU was on the level of a Hofstra or Manhattan. A mid major D1. Lavin has gotten them back to solid footing. 

-Where the program should be? I would say that SJU is the type of program with its high profile history, location and homecourt at MSG, that it should always be a top 25 type team. Lavin has not established this in his time here. He's had this team in the top 25 for a few weeks this season. A few weeks in the top 25 over a 5 year period is not good enough for a program of SJU's stature IMO.

-Where the program is going? This is where Lavin should get the biggest knock IMO. The progra m is in a HOLDING pattern. Lavin got the ship back on a solid course. However, he's never done anything since that. This team got marginally better with the core group of upperclassmen over the last few years. That is unacceptable. If you look at teams that stay together, they typically have a very large improvement in record and play from one year to the next. The marginal improvement that Lavin's teams have shown over the last two season tells me that these players aren't dveloping and becoming more cohesive as a team at the level that they should be. You see mid major that stay together for years and they shown much greateer improvement than any I've ever seen out of a Lavin coached team. Wichita St. and Creighton are perfect examples of this. Their recruiting classes weren't nearly as highly rated as Lavin's going back 3 or 4 years, yet those teams get better every time you see them and both have won several games in the tourney. Definitely shows what good coaching can do and how poorly this team has shown, in comparison.

-My expectations next year are low. Lavin's done a poor job recruiting ooutside of Sampson. He has no bigs. Next year SJU's team is going to get owned on the glass and in the paint similar to this year as was seen when Obekpa was out of the lineup. Noone knows if this young DeLaRosa kid will even be able to handle 20 minutes/game at his size. He looks oversized on the sideline and not sure he even has the stamina to play serious big east minutes.

-Expectations over the next 4 years will also be low because Lavin doesn't develop his players. Harrison plateaud this year, sadly. The others are ok. Pointer was the only one who improved and clearly all the credit goes to SirDom for really elevating his play and hustle.

-This team should be a 20-23 win team every year in today's new college landscape. The Big East isn't nearly as strong as it was before. They should hover around the top 25 annually.

Anything less and they're an irrelevant program on the national level. There's not a lot of downside to getting rid of Lavin now and bringing in a much better, younger coach like Hurley. Lavin's not a HC, he's a recruiter, motivational speaker and a good salesmen. He doesn't work the sidelines well at all and there are few in-game adjustments.

Not trying to stick up for Lavin. But I think some of you forget how bad it was. Under the circumstances the last 5 years were good.

Not trying to stick up for Lavin. But I think some of you forget how bad it was. Under the circumstances the last 5 years were good.

I really thought this recruiting cycle was when we'd turn the corner and get a solid base ready moving forward.  These past 5 years were better overall for sure, but I am worried the recruiting strategy is not sound for the short or long term.  It has to be "on."  Amazingly, when Paul Biancardi just talked Big East recruiting, he said outside of Georgetown and Villanova, St. John's and Providence were the only other Beast team that has made inroads recently.  Of course, he said Wojo will be getting it done now at Marquette.

Again I would caution against the notion of needing a deep run in the NCAAs.

Again Nova last 4 years they missed the NCAAS in 2012, made it as a 9 seed in 2013 and have been a 2 and 1 seed the last 2 years with back to back regular season titles.

But they have a been a big disappointment in the NCAAs.

Are you telling me if SJU had a 4 year run like that Lavs would be in trouble because of a lack of a run in the NCAAs?

No, I'd be more than content with a program that just won the BE tournament despite losing in the second round. How many people were calling for Lou to be fired after Walter Berry blocked Pearl Washington's shot in 1986? You want to make point posting facts, that's great, but you left out a really important part.

Lavin, in a rare honest moment actually said he's not a good tournament coach. He's right. Let's take him at his word.

Not trying to stick up for Lavin. But I think some of you forget how bad it was. Under the circumstances the last 5 years were good.

This program is over 100 years old. Before Harrington, we were the 4th winningest program in the country. 4th! And now, we want to be grateful for a 5th place finish in the BE. We had one terrible season under Jarvis/Harrington, and 6 terrible seasons under Norm Roberts.  I'm not going accept a little improvement just because Father Harrington wanted to teach the athletic department a lesson by hiring Norm Roberts.

A University should aspire to greater things. I'm not asking to return to the glory days. I'm asking for more than that. Lavin isn't terrible, but he's not the answer here. St.John's and New York City deserves better. If a coach from Ohio, Florida or some other shit state thinks he's bigger than NY, than F that delusional scared piece of shit. Enjoy your Olive Gardens, your wide open spaces and your gigantic fins splashing in that little pond.

Quote from: fordham96 on March 22, 2015, 09:14:06 AM

Again I would caution against the notion of needing a deep run in the NCAAs.

Again Nova last 4 years they missed the NCAAS in 2012, made it as a 9 seed in 2013 and have been a 2 and 1 seed the last 2 years with back to back regular season titles.

But they have a been a big disappointment in the NCAAs.

Are you telling me if SJU had a 4 year run like that Lavs would be in trouble because of a lack of a run in the NCAAs?

Nova and SJU are at two different places right now. If that was Lavin that would be amazing and he would defiantly receive an extension and everyone would be happy with that. I am curious to see what Nova thinks...Not saying the coach is in trouble but  Nova can't be happy either.  At least UCONN won the championship last year...

Jay Wright won the BE tournament and Nova is the regular season BE champ. Sometimes you lose, and that's part of the game. People are frustrated with Lavin because he loses every time.

Billy Donovan makes nearly $4 million in a state with no income tax, great weather and a comfortable lifestyle for his family and he should leave it to make less at SJU, pay more in taxes and suffer through long winters?  Some like cold and a city lifestyle and some don't.  None of us can decide what's right for someone else.

Billy Donovan makes nearly $4 million in a state with no income tax, great weather and a comfortable lifestyle for his family and he should leave it to make less at SJU, pay more in taxes and suffer through long winters?  Some like cold and a city lifestyle and some don't.  None of us can decide what's right for someone else.

Florida is for people who are about to die.