The 2011-2012 team went 13-19 in the old Big East (and Nuri lost another at the foul line). They played @Kentucky (national champs), @Duke, Arizona, UCLA, @Detroitt, St. Mary's, and Texas A&M. That team only had seven guys on the roster after Nuri took off and was replaced by Garrett upon graduating high school in December. Those guys had no depth--they couldn't even have ten scholarship guys on the court at once in practice--literally almost no experience outside of Stith, no size, no true PG, and woeful shooting. I think that team gives us a good measuring stick for the bottom of what to expect. Give those guys a 6'9 240 soph like AA, a pair of good shooting 5th-year grad transfers like Johnson and M'Vouika and two seniors for depth like Balamou and Jones, and I think they would have won 16-18 games and made the NIT.
This team is clearly better. The Big East is weaker, they have four seniors, they have more size (albeit still clearly lacking another capable center), the depth is exponentially better, and, outside of one of Lovett or Mussini, they don't HAVE to live and die by a freshman.
As the roster stands now, I think 16 wins with an understanding that we have an amazing staff that is building for the future is a fair and reasonable expectation. If everyone is eligible and they sign Rowan and a capable center (or AA dramatically improves), that expectation goes up to bubble team. Ideally I'd like to see Sima play no more than 10-15 mpg and Jones no more than 5-7, but we may not have the luxury.