Before February, a few things seemed certain. There was a lot of snow blanketing the country. St. John’s would struggle to get into the NCAA Tournament. And the DePaul game would be a cakewalk win.

Funny how things have changed in just 3 weeks. The snow’s still out there. But St. John’s has nestled into a foreign land of “playing for NCAA seeding”, with a number of marquee wins and a whole arena-full of confidence.

But while Dwight Hardy‘s been making his case for Big East Player of the Year, and while the team around him has been forcing turnovers, defending, and making a name for themselves on a national level, there’s been a quiet resurgence in the Chicago-based outpost of the Big East. DePaul is back! To not being the Big East’s skidmark. DePaul beat Providence, lost in overtime to Villanova (in a game they really could have won), and played West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Louisville competitively.

It’s not much, but a slight resurgence in the Blue Demons – involving their shooting prowess and their ballhawking style – is the stuff that upsets are made of. The Blue Demons have a pair of the Big East’s best freshmen. The veterans are stepping up.

Smell that? Smells like a trap game. DePaul appears to be the weak opponent after another season-defining win, and before a game against the talented-yet-foundering Villanova Wildcats. St. John’s could really be tested tomorrow at Carnesecca.

A loss to the Blue Demons would give rise to questions about the Johnnies’ record and those bad losses so distant in the rearview mirror. The Red Storm need to apply the same level of concentration and tenacity to the Blue Demons as they did to Pitt and the other MSG victims. The Red Storm needs to give the home fans a dominating show against DePaul.

A ranked team should do no less.

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DePaul (7-19, 1-13 Big East)

Make no mistake about it – the Blue Demons have really struggled. Part of the problem is the adjustment to Oliver Purnell‘s trapping system. And part of it is an exodus of talent over the last few years. Thankfully, some of Jerry Wainwright’s newest guys can play – who knows why they decided to come to DePaul, but Brandon Young and Moses Morgan are keepers.

Purnell’s reputation is for fast, up-and-down play. But this year’s DePaul team is much more likely to slow the ball down and run when they can to help cover up the talent disparity – as Norm Roberts’ early teams often did. The slowdown has helped keep the scoring and transition points for the opposition down. A recent tightening of the rotation has helped the offense field a rotation of players who can do what Purnell wants. Despite the slow pace, the team will still run out on opponents, will still press and trap… and will still give up points.

The lack of Big East talent is evident on the Blue Demons, but they are playing hard. The team is led by a pair of scoring point guards, Brandon Young and Jeremiah Kelly. At first, Young seemed to be the undisputed leader of the Blue Demons’ attack, despite being a first-year player. But the guard from Baltimore has received help from Kelly, who has found a nice shooting stroke, hitting almost 42% of his shots in conference. In the past 2 games, he’s taken 20 of his 31 shots from outside the arc, hitting 11 (55%). The kid is hot.

Brandon Young is a smooth baller who is learning how not to dribble himself into trouble. He can dish and is a solid Big East-level athlete, and has a bit of a turnover problem that he’ll improve in the coming years. Young can convert well at the rim as well. The pair log a lot of minutes, and are backed up by Michael Bizoukas, who works really really hard. His high scoring total is 4 points. But he works really, really hard.

Former walk-on (and transfer from Southeast Missouri State) Jimmy Drew is also a very hard worker. But he has an actual basketball skill – he can hit open shots. While not the most athletic, Drew is a solid 6’5″ and 220 pounds, and can compete on defense, make some passes, and grab some rebounds.

Also getting time is freshman Moses Morgan. Morgan had a real issue early in the year – he couldn’t hit jump shots, he couldn’t hit free throws, and his defense was terrible. But what looked like an early bust was a precursor to a player who has really turned a corner in conference play, nailing over 42% of his shots against Big East opponents and gaining confidence. If Mario Stula touches the court, something has gone horribly wrong for the Blue Demons. He supposedly can shoot, but seems to miss when he plays.

Up front, the Blue Demons are led by Cleveland Melvin – the favorite for Big East freshman of the year, I would say – and burly Krys Faber. A one-time recruiting target for the Red Storm, Faber is large, turnover-prone, and seems to attract fouls. But he is the team’s best rebounder, and is willing to use his body.

Melvin is a lithe forward who originally committed to Connecticut. He can run like a deer and is very athletic. He loves to crash the offensive boards. More importantly, he doesn’t turn the ball over much, because once it gets into his hands, he is trying to put up that shot. He has about 10-12 foot range and is quick.

Joining Melvin and Faber is 6’6 sophomore forward Tony Freeland. He’s short, but can battle in the post. His shooting from the field is inconsistent at best, and his free throw line shooting is sub-50%. Senior forward Mike Stovall has disappeared into the bench.

Keys to the Game

Get running. The Blue Demons are not the best ballhandlers. St. John’s has to force turnovers and get transition opportunities… and convert them. Against an opponent like the Blue Demons, the Red Storm have a chance to use all of their offensive weapons.

Play crisply. The Red Storm cannot play another lackluster game at Carnesecca. It’s a bad habit, and the Blue Demons have been plucky of late, forcing turnovers and scoring off of mistakes. St. John’s has to protect the ball, play hard, and make plays happen. No loose, “having fun” showboating.

Hit the free throws. The Red Storm’s free throw shooting has been woeful at Carnesecca. Perhaps it’s the players who have been getting to the line, but still, shooting under 60% from the free throw line anywhere is a cause for concern. The Blue Demons tend to foul a lot, as well.

Rebound. There is no reason that St. John’s shouldn’t punish the smaller, weaker, less athletic Blue Demons on the glass.

Defend the outside. The Blue Demons will stroke it from outside. St. John’s has to mark Jeremiah Kelly and Jimmy Drew; as the outside threats, making Melvin try to beat the Red Storm on his own.

Prediction: Pain for the Chicago team. St. John’s runs with it, 81-69