Ambiance: Snoop Dogg, “Gin and Juice” (opens in a new window. Naughty language inside)

Tonight is the last big test before Big East play – fighting for the championship against the impressive Northwestern Wildcats. St. John’s comes off of a hard fought and physical win over the Davidson Wildcats; Northwestern comes off what ended up being a pretty easy and decisive victory over the St. Francis Terriers. How will St. John’s contend with the sharpshooting, 8-0 Northwestern team, led by “John and Juice” [John Shurna + Michael “Juice” Thompson]?

By rolling down the lane, smoking defense, dunking on John and Juice. Mind on the shooters and the shooters on the mind.

[gigpress_related_shows]

Northwestern (8-0)

The Wildcats come off of another dominating win over another overmatched opponent. Tonight’s game against St. John’s is extremely important to them; it could be their one really valid win. Unless Georgia Tech is something other than the bottom of the Atlantic Coast Conference. For the Wildcats, their schedule seemed to avoid the fact that they might want a good RPI win to help them get into the NCAA Tournament for the first time EVER.

Alas, this is the schedule they have chosen. The Wildcats have experimented with man defense, but expect to see a lot of 1-3-1 defense with their point guard, Michael “Juice” Thompson in the back so the front four of the zone are long and difficult to see/ shoot over. They will play some other zones as well; but the 1-3-1 is their main look that they sometimes trap out of, or extend, to disrupt opponents. Northwestern blog Sippin’ on Purple has a primer on how it works.

The team’s Princeton offense is led by John Shurna. Despite his skinniness and pale complexion, don’t believe the announcers when they say he’s like Gordon Hayward of Butler fame. I think he’s more Tim Abromaitis-like – Hayward could handle a bit and actually didn’t shoot that well last year. Shurna has a goofy shot (shoots from a low release point and in front of his face) and can take it from almost anywhere. And he can drive, has a little nasty to him in his defense and his dunking. But his weapon is his shot and quick release. It would take a lot of hounding to get him out of his game; he only needs a few free moments. His defense is sneaky, and he uses his length well.

Shurna is backed by Michael “Juice” Thompson at the point and Drew Crawford, who despite being 6’5″ will take the opening tip. He seems to lose that tip a lot. Both are excellent scorers and can hit from outside as well as in. Crawford, coming off of a 9 rebound, 8 assist, 3 block, 25 point performance, can do a little bit of everything. Thompson is a steady ballhandler, good passer, and will make you pay for leaving the lane open. The three of those players will be on the court the majority of the game. Obviously, they are all solid passers and look for the open cutting man.

JerShon Cobb is an athletic freshman who is finding his way in the offense. Luka Mirkovic provides size and rebounding down low at 6’11. The bench is little-used, with Alex Marcotullio providing shooting, Davide Curletti providing size, and Jeff Ryan could be an x-factor – a player who can rebound and play the point guard position, as well.

More on the Wildcats from my Q & A with Chicago College Basketball.

Keys to the Game

Slow Them Down. St. John’s has to make the Wildcats not only work for their points, but struggle overall. To win this game, Northwestern has to have an off shooting night, Thompson and Shurna need to be bottled up, and the Wildcats need to have that confused and trapped look. I don’t think the Johnnies will force many turnovers, but some would help disrupt the team from Evanston.

Squeeze The Opportunity. This is not a game where St. John’s can go on a long scoring drought. The Wildcats are talented at getting the ball to rip the bottom of the nets. St. John’s has to put up a scoring performance from all sides to compete in this game. The zone will be hard to get around, but the Johnnies have to get good looks wherever they choose to shoot. And they cannot have those turnovers that occurred last night.

Defend the Three Better. Whether it’s man or zone defense, something has to change. This is similar to “Slow Them Down” but it has to be stressed. The Wildcats are dependent on their three-pointers to score. St. John’s gives up a high percentage of three-point attempts – and a high percentage of those are made. That’s a bad combination, and the defense has to find a way to flip the script tonight. When they hit their threes, the Wildcats can go on long runs.

Physical, Physical. The one advantage St. John’s may have is years of being physical. The Wildcats face and will face physical play; but St. John’s has to make a lot of contact. Preferably not on defense after Shurna has shot a deep jumper; rather, the Johnnies need to attack them on offense and make them defend with their hands, pick up fouls.

Rebound. No second shots for the Wildcats, and St. John’s has to dominate their own offensive glass and get more shots.

Prediction: It’s a great chance for St. John’s to start surprising people, and the oddsmakers favor St. John’s by 3.5. I think they’re wrong, but this is a fan site, so I’ll go bold. Red Storm wins, 71-69