Ambiance: Spoon, the Underdog (live) (video link, pops up in a new window)

Junior Guard Malik Boothe – On shooting woes in the second half:

“We didn’t sense it coming, I think it just happened. They started hitting their shots and we started missing shots. They started beating us to loose balls, the ’50-50′ balls. For us to win games, we can’t let that happen.”

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St. John’s is struggling to remain relevant in the Big East race. With a record of 2-5 and an RPI of 65 and falling (where #1 would be rising, of course), the Red Storm are going to need some big wins to make moves in the conference. The fans are frustrated, the team is frustrated, and going on the road to meet the #17 ranked Pittsburgh Panthers is not exactly the recipe for a turnaround.

St. John’s was hoping to surprise the league this year. Instead, Pittsburgh has been the surprise, dealing Syracuse (the other surprise) their first loss and defeating 3 other good Big east squads – and DePaul on their way to 5 wins. But the Panthers have lost to Georgetown at home and to Seton Hall in Newark.

They’re looking for a win – and they defend their home very well, winning 92% of their games in the Peterson Events Center. That record is built on great defense, not just home court mystique; and the Panthers are once again an excellent defensive team.  They also have scorers on the perimeter, talent in the paint. The Panthers may be ahead of some people’s predictions, but they can play.

Junior star and Pittsburgh native DJ Kennedy gets to go home and ball in front of friends and family; can he and the Red Storm battle the Pitt crew for a win? Or will St. John’s fall farther from contention?

Game Information

Tip Off: 7:00 PM, Thursday, January 28
Location: Petersen Events Center
TV: ESPNU
Radio: Bloomberg 1130

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Team Reviews

Pittsburgh (17-1, 6-0)

12 G Ashton Gibbs SR 6’2 190: 17.3 ppg* 2.2 apg* 2.8 rpg* 40.2% 3PT

22 G Brad Wanamaker JR 6’4 210: 12.6 ppg* 6.7 rpg* 4.2 apg* 1.2 spg

24 G Jermaine Dixon JR 6’3 200: 9.6 ppg* 2.5 rpg* 3.9 apg

35 F Nasir Robinson SR 6’10 250: 7.4 ppg* 6 rpg* 1.6 apg

52 C Gary McGhee JR 6’8 235: 6.8 ppg* 6.4 rpg* 1.6 bpg* 70.3% FG

Bench

1 G Travon Woodall SO 5’11 190: 21.7 mpg* 5.3 ppg* 2.5 rpg* 3.9 apg

5 G Gilbert Brown JR 6’6 210: 23 mpg* 9.8 ppg* 3 rpg

11 F-C Dante Taylor FR 6’9 240: 16 mpg* 5.1 ppg* 4.9 rpg* .8 bpg

3 PG Chase Adams SR 5’10 190: 14 mpg* 2.3 ppg* 1.3 apg* 38.1% 3PT

This year’s squad is a little shorter on name-talent but strong on fundamental defense, allowing few offensive rebounds, defending the three extremely well (allowing 29% shooting in Big East play), and not sending opponents to the line. On offense, they are decent. While not particularly proficient, they are hitting their free throws and getting to the line.

For more on Pitt, let’s turn to two Pitt bloggers, Eye of a Panther and Pitt Blather. I asked them a) whether Pittsburgh was actually as good as their record, and b) what the difference was between expectations and results:

Eye of a Panther:

This year, they lost four players who are either in the NBA or playing overseas, but the same style of play is there. The difference in between the expectations that most had set and the actual results of being a top 20 team is that the players really buy into what Coach Dixon sells.  I posted earlier on a Louisville message board that Pitt is the type of team that will walk into your house, punch you in the mouth, eat your food and leave without apologizing for it.  At their best, they’re a physical, tough team that wins with good defense and rebounding and scores enough points to win.  When they stray from that formula as they’ve done in the past couple of games, they struggle.

Pitt Blather:

Are they as good as they started in the Big East? No. They had things come together well. Pardon the standard boiler-plate, but they are a young team and things fell into place unbelievably well. And like a young team, they stumbled and took a couple steps back in the last couple of games looking completely different — as teams change their strategy to Pitt.

This is the difference between knowing what they are supposed to do to adjust and being able to actually do it. Pitt fans saw this early in the season when they struggled whenever a team went zone defense on them. They looked lost and unable to deal. The adjustment to it took longer than expected, but they finally figured it out.

Now the team is seeing opposing teams switch to blanketing Gibbs and really extending on the perimeter to slow the guards when Pitt is on offense. This has stagnated Pitt’s offense as the team struggles with working the ball inside and executing what they know. On Pitt’s defense, you are seeing teams attack off the wings and drive more.

The players show their youth in being slower to adjust to this.

And for a look at the players, I’ll let Eye of a Panther talk about the roster:

Big Men.

Gary McGhee and Dante Taylor are the men in the middle for Pitt.  Both are capable of playing well, but both (as evidenced in the last game) can also struggle.  Neither is particularly strong offensively, though both CAN rebound well when they want to.

After them, Pitt really has five guys they rely heavily on for productive minutes:

Guards.

The guards are Ashton Gibbs and Jermaine Dixon – Gibbs is the best player for the Panthers – and if left open, has the capability to score at will. Automatic from the line (set a school record with 40+ straight free throws) and a decent defender.  Not strictly a jump shooter and can go to the basket if need be (though not at will).  If not defended, capable of going off on teams at any given moment.  Dixon is probably Pitt’s best defender, but his shot has seen a steady decline from last year.  He was injured early on this year, but now 11 games in, he’s still shooting under 35% from the field and under 22% from three-point range.  Decent scorer, but needs to master the difficult art of scoring more while taking fewer shots.  As the only senior starter on the team, maybe as close to a leader as Pitt has.

Wings/ Forwards.

The forwards are Brad Wanamaker, Gilbert Brown, and Nasir Robinson.  Wanamaker is a very good all around player for Pitt – another great rebounder for a SG/SF (averaging nearly 7 per game at only 6’4″) and this year has become a reliable scorer.  At his best when Gibbs draws defenders to him and has shown the ability to drive to the basket and hit clutch shots (see Louisville game).  Brown is Pitt’s most athletic player and maybe the most versatile.  Good defender, freakishly athletic, and reliable player.  I used to call anyone who thought he could play in the NBA delusional.  I’m still not sure he can, but it doesn’t seem so far fetched to me anymore if he has a strong year next year.  Along with Wanamaker, I’d say he’s in the conversation for Pitt’s 2nd best player behind Gibbs.

Robinson is an average player statistics-wise, but someone Pitt needs to play well.  He rebounds very well for his size and while he showed he can score (had 26 against Louisville), generally doesn’t get above double figures.  Nice player who Pitt relies on for toughness and defends fairly well.

Weak Links.

I’d consider the weak links to be Pitt’s backup point guards.  If Ashton Gibbs is ever injured or forced into foul trouble and Pitt has to rely on either Travon Woodall or Chase Adams to come off the bench to play significant minutes, they could be in trouble.  Woodall, a redshirt freshman is not a strong player and prone to turnovers and playing out of control.  And even though Adams is a senior transfer who was expected to contribute, has not shown the type of game expected and as such, has only been rewarded with ten total minutes in Big East play.  These reasons combined with Gibbs’ strong play is the reason he has played no fewer than 35 minutes in each Big East game.

How did they lose to a team like Seton Hall? Where are they vulnerable? Pitt Blather speaks to that:

Disruptive guards. When Pitt lost to Indiana, one of the big factors was that Tom Crean runs a guard-heavy team. He doesn’t press, but he has the guards get right in there and poke and play tight defense. If your guards are big, or just as fast it isn’t a big deal. Pitt’s guards aren’t particularly big, and they definitely were not as fast.

Seton Hall does have good guards that can slap and play tight defense when so motivated. Harvey and Theodore did a great job of it.  So, in most of the first half, Pitt was not prepared to get harassed and pushed. The guards struggled to move the ball and it led to players not moving as well without the ball as no passes were coming on the play.

If you want to have a good chance at beating Pitt, keep the guards from scoring. Play tight perimeter defense, so the 3s aren’t falling and Pitt can’t spread the floor as much to move the ball and get it inside.

(For more answers from both bloggers, check out the extended versions of the interview with Eye of a Panther and with Pitt Blather)

St. John’s (12-7, 2-5)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 4.3 ppg* 2.1 apg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 8.4 ppg* 3.1 rpg* 37.5% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 15.3 ppg* 6.3 rpg* 3.4 apg* 36.2% 3PT

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10 252: 10.7 mpg* 2.3 ppg* 2.1 rpg* 1.3 bpg* 65.5% FG

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 7.1 ppg* 6.6 rpg

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6′2 187: 22.9 mpg* 11.8 ppg* 41% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6′7 232: 22 mpg* 7.8 ppg* 5.9 rpg* 1 spg

2 G-F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7 210: 18.4 mpg* 6 ppg* 3.8 rpg

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 17.8 mpg* 5 ppg* 2.9 rpg* 50% FG

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11 185: 12.8 mpg* 2.1 ppg* 1.5 apg

11 G Omari Lawrence FR 6’4 215: 10.5 mpg* 2.8 ppg* 1.9 rpg

I expect to see a bigger starting lineup to deal with Dante Taylor and Gary McGee; but we don’t know if Anthony Mason Jr. will start. The team will continue to play a large rotation of players in an effort to keep players fresh. Dwight Hardy is the surest scorer the team has; if the Red Storm is going to score points, he will have to play a great deal. He scored 19 against Villanova and connected on 5 3-pointers.

The game against Villanova saw Malik Boothe have some ballhandling and passing problems; he logged a rebound and a steal, 2 fouls, and no points. He’ll have to do better for St. John’s to play well against the Panthers. Against the shorter Wildcat lineup, Sean Evans scored 12; DJ Kennedy and Anthony Mason chipped in with 10 apiece, while Omari Lawrence had a very good floor game with 8 points, 2 rebounds, an assist, and a steal.

Keys to the Game

Keep the Intensity High. In earlier games, the Red Storm has managed to hang with the opponents higher in the standing for a half and then… lose their cool during a scoring drought. Or they lose their defensive assignments. Whichever way, the team has to play smart basketball for the whole game. Pittsburgh will adjust and run sharp sets for most of the game; the team is well-coached.

Stop Ashton (And Guard the Perimeter). Gibbs is the main scoring threat; he takes the largest share of the shots but he can be guarded. But it will be difficult. Jermaine Dixon can score a bit as well but has struggled since returning from injury. Guarding the perimeter will be key in bringing the Panthers to a level of scoring efficiency that would allow St. John’s to steal this game on the road.

Nullify Their Size on the Glass. Dante Taylor is a good athlete, and Gary McGhee works hard on the glass. St. John’s would do well to fight on the offensive glass. Winning those fights mean points from offensive rebounds and free throw attempts.

Scoring Performances. The Red Storm need players to step up and score outside and inside. Kennedy and Hardy will lead the way, but the team needs at least one more solid scoring performance to pull out a win from Burrell or Brownlee or Horne… someone else needs to step up.

Into the Muck. Pittsburgh has to be brought into the kind of sloppy game that St. John’s tends to play. It would be nice to say that St. John’s can win a shootout, but there’s no evidence for that. So St. John’s has to use their defense to confuse and cause turnovers. With some good scoring performances, St. John’s has a chance to win on the road.

Prediction: St. John’s puts up a good effort and loses late; free throws will be a factor. 67-60, Pittsburgh.

Transplanted New Yorker and now Midwesterner Peter a/k/a Pico writes for the East Coast Bias and the Church of Bracketology and for Johnny Jungle, doing the Calm Before the Storm posts. Pico is also on Twitter, @ECoastBias.