St. John’s Red Storm

Hoya Home Opener

January 2, 2011 by Pico Dulce Leave a Comment

“I still think we’re the better team. We should have won this game. We didn’t make the important shots when we needed them.”

Justin Burrell, after the 66-59 loss to Georgetown on Dec. 31st, 2009

The Red Storm have started 2-0 in the Big East, with both wins on the road, where the Johnnies hadn’t tasted much success in the past few years. Granted, the team hasn’t tasted much success at home in the Big East either. Obviously, winning at home in the Big East schedule is key to a good conference record – and possible NCAA berth. And that adds importance to Monday’s contest against longtime rival Georgetown Hoyas, predicted to finish in the top 4 of the league.

The Hoyas come to New York with 12 wins and a top-20 ranking, but they are still finding their way with a 1-1 record in the Big East. They lost at Notre Dame – no shame in that – and defeated DePaul in Washington by 11. They will be looking for a decisive win over a St. John’s team that has likely raised eyebrows around the league. Meanwhile, the Red Storm look to go 3-0 in the Big East and continue their hot start.

Georgetown Hoyas (12-2, 1-1 Big East)

One thing St. John’s fans have to appreciate about Georgetown is that – for a team that should have aspirations of deep NCAA runs – John Thompson III’s recent teams never seem to put St. John’s away. I don’t get it. Last year’s New Year’s Eve game was close for much of the game, with St. John’s taking a 1 point lead in the second half. The Johnnies couldn’t score inside in that half, and fell to the Hoyas in Washington, a disappointing loss in a game that could have been stolen.

The Friars and the Mountaineers are tough teams that sometimes struggle to score, even before Big East play. That’s not Georgetown; the Hoyas put up points. While the Hoyas have had some turnover problems this year – both in forcing turnovers and holding on to the ball – when they can get shots up they are as dangerous as any team in the country.

The offense – a familiar cast for Big East fans – is led by senior Austin Freeman, a big-bodied guard who can post up, pass, drive, and scorch the nets from the perimeter. He is one of the Big East’s premier scorers, and is blessed with a jump shot and knowledge of the game that will keep him employed in the game of basketball for years to come.

Also on the perimeter are point guard Chris Wright, who is handing out assists at a high-level rate and scoring well from all over the court. He likes to drive into the middle of the paint off the dribble and in transition, with mixed results – some great shots, and some wince-worthy turnovers. Joining him is Jason Clark, who takes about half his shots from outside the arc. Despite not passing often, he also turns the ball over a bit. Against Notre Dame, he struggled to defend around screens and to keep his man in front of him. Backing them up in limited minutes are freshman Markel Starks and sophomore Vee Sanford, who has been extremely effective in scoring the ball in his limited time.

Up front, the Hoyas replace Greg Monroe’s production with a combination of senior Julian Vaughn, sophomore Hollis Thompson, junior Henry Sims, and freshman Nate Lubick. Vaughn is a brawny body who is effective on the glass on both ends; he’s the team’s best rebounder and shot blocker, but gets into some foul trouble. Thompson starts and has range to outside the three-point arc. His rebounding has been solid.

Off the bench, Henry Sims has come into his own. He is the team’s tallest regular at 6’10”, rebounds the defensive end well, and even makes passes. Nate Lubick is a physical presence who is judicious with his shot-taking, but can stroke it out to the perimeter given space.

Keys to the Game:

Active/ Pressure Defense. No matter what lineup the Red Storm play, they need to have active hands and feet, making sure Georgetown gets few easy looks. This is a must; the Hoyas can put a game out of reach if they get comfortable on the perimeter.

Force Miscues. The Red Storm can force some turnovers via steals and traps, especially if they speed the guards up. Those turnovers will help the Johnnies’ scoring, as well.

Outside In, Inside Out Scoring. The previous opponents allowed St. John’s to get a lot of good shots inside. The scoring may be harder against the tougher Hoyas. Against an outside shooting team, St. John’s has to be able to hit some perimeter shots as well as score inside – or get to the free throw line a lot.

Austin Freeman. Know where Austin Freeman is. He’s the most consistently dangerous scorer. He’ll get his shots, but they need to be difficult attempts.

Defend the Interior. The Hoyas will look to run some backcourt cuts for their guards and get shots at the rim. St. John’s forwards need to be prepared to slide over and defend cutting players. The Hoya forwards can get layups and dunks when the guards get deep penetration.

Prediction:

No Hangover

December 31, 2010 by Pico Dulce Leave a Comment

We ran everything we wanted to. We knew plays they were going to run. We made them do things they didn’t want to do. We controlled the paint . . . and we really controlled the tone.

Justin Burrell, after the West Virginia win

After an impressive conference-opening win at West Virginia, St. John’s continues Big East play with another road game at Providence on New Year’s Day. I guess that means no champagne for the fellas at midnight (or maybe one glass) – if they want to stay sharp.

And this team should want to remain sharp. Last year, a weaker Providence team came to Carnesecca Arena and the Red Storm had their defense opened up like a banana. The Red Storm gave up 42 points in the second half and found it hard to score against a team that spent a whole season not playing defense. The Johnnies turned the ball over without Malik Boothe in the lineup and had little offensive flow.

Not only can St. John’s not afford to lose to this Friar team if they want to contend for a spot in the top half of the league, they need to avenge what was a disturbing loss for the squad.

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Providence (11-3, 0-1 Big East)

Providence is 11-3 with wins over Alabama and local rival Rhode Island. Their schedule hasn’t been the most daunting, but the Friars have shown a willingness to play defense. They have been solid at defending the perimeter with their length at the point guard and the wings, and haven’t sent opponents to the line often (unlike West Virginia).

On offense, the Friars look to run on made and missed baskets, crash the glass and score well inside the paint. Keno Davis’ team doesn’t dig deep into the bench, but has some interesting talent in the wings. They are willing to a 4-guard lineup at times.

The Friars are led by the scorer Marshon Brooks and the point guard Vincent Council. Brooks is a senior who is not shy about taking shots. From anywhere and at anytime, he will pull up and stroke it, though he is adept at driving to the rim. He does more of his scoring inside the arc, and gets to the line fairly frequently. He can block a shot as well, and grabs rebounds on both ends. In fact, he’s not a terrible passer (by the numbers) and has some steals; he does it all.

Vincent Council plays point guard and has some nice defensive stretches. He has turned the ball over on occasion, but is also putting up excellent assist numbers, while getting to the line even more than Brooks does.

Also at guard is the freshman Gerard Coleman, who has been capable outside but less of a threat from the perimeter. He was a highly rated recruit, so one never knows when he might have a coming-out party. Duke Mondy is strictly a perimeter shooter, though his percentages haven’t been great in his sophomore year. He grabs steals as well. Freshman Bryce Cotton is pesky on defense.

Up front, the Friars have improved with a pair of big bodies doing the dirty work. Bilal Dixon and Kadeem Batts both rebound very well, don’t hunt their shots down, and provide some defense inside. Batts is more efficient on offense and focuses on offensive rebounding. Dixon is a far better defensive rebounder, blocks shots at a strong rate, but has struggled to score efficiently or from the free throw line. Ron Giplaye backs them up with more rebounding and blocked shots.

Keys to the Game

Take Care of the Ball. St. John’s can’t afford to turn the ball over to a team that isn’t good at forcing turnovers; the Red Storm can’t defeat themselves.

Anticipate Fast Attacks. St. John’s has to get back in transition and anticipate the streaking Friars’ players; many of their points come from their transition game. If St. John’s can either slow them down or prevent them from getting easy perimeter shots in transition, the Friars will struggle.

Control the Game. Much like the above Key, St. John’s simply cannot allow them to go on long unanswered runs. The Fordham game is a good lesson for this matchup – a team that can give up a lot of points but can also score a bunch in a hurry if the Red Storm isn’t careful. St. John’s has to take smart, efficient shots… preferably the types that get Friar post players into foul trouble.

Master the Glass. Once again, if St. John’s can keep their opponent from offensive rebounds – and get some second-chance points themselves – the Red Storm can win this matchup.

Cover the Perimeter. Providence has some shooters, even if they haven’t tasted a lot of success this season. The Red Storm can’t slack on their perimeter defense.

Prediction: St. John’s wins this one, 79-75.

City Boys on the Country Roads

December 27, 2010 by Pico Dulce 2 Comments

All the New York guys are leaving – they need to find some tough New York players, to be honest with you.

– Daryll “Truck” Bryant, after defeating the Red Storm in Madison Square Garden, 79-60 in February 2010

As New York digs out of the blizzard, the Red Storm get ready to face the West Virginia Mountaineers in both teams’ Big East openers. And what a test it will be for the Red Storm. If you don’t remember last year’s game, you’re probably repressing memories of terrible things you have seen on a basketball court. Make no mistake about it, giving up 57 points in a second half, scoring 27 in that same half, and turning an 11 point halftime lead into a 19 point blowout is a truly disastrous basketball result, with a roster loaded with New York area players,

The seniors should be looking for some measure of revenge against a weaker Mountaineer squad. Weaker than last year’s, at least. The Red Storm bring in the same squad that was crushed in the second half, hoping to find a new result with a new coach.

On top of that, Wednesday’s game starts a grueling stretch of conference games – they start at West Virginia, go to an improved Providence, play at home against Georgetown, who look ready to compete at the top of the conference, at sharpshooting Notre Dame, and home to Syracuse before welcoming the Fighting Irish to New York. That is one rough stretch of conference play. The Red Storm can show the league that they aren’t the previous coaching staff’s Red Storm.

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West Virginia (8-2)

West Virginia is 8-2, with wins over Vanderbilt, Duquesne, and Cleveland State, and losses to Miami (FL) and the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Mountaineers, like last year, are playing a physical brand of basketball, getting to the free throw line and rebounding the offensive glass. It works for them; the shooting isn’t spectacular, especially from outside. And the defense is great on the perimeter, but warning signs abound inside. Opponents are enjoying many trips to the free throw line and many offensive rebounds (13.8 per game).

Leading the Mountaineers in scoring is Casey Mitchell. The shooter – who got to know the bench and the coaching staff very well last year – is thriving as the go-to shooter, stroking it inside the arc and out. Of course, he and Huggins sometimes do not see eye-to-eye; he played 16 and 13 minutes, respectively, against Robert Morris and Duquesne. He is backed up by Dalton Pepper, who is similarly sized and can shoot.

Leading the Mountaineers in minutes and strong offensive rebounds at forward is Mount Vernon’s Kevin Jones. Without his lanky teammates of last year, Jones has been good, but not the great leader one might have guessed him to be. In his starring role, how grabs offensive boards and is efficient inside. His perimeter shooting has been iffy. But he is still a mobile big man who will give the Johnnies trouble inside. Helping out in the paint is John Flowers, who has become a very good undersized rebounder. He is also the team’s leading shot blocker and gets to the free throw line with some frequency. They are frequently backed up by Cam Thoroughman, a Huggins-esque beast who grabs offensive rebounds and avoids shooting; he has a lot of assists for a big man.

Also in the paint is the “Istan-Bull,” Deniz Kilicli, whose penchant for hackery keeps him on the bench – along with some sloppiness in knowing what to do with the basketball. He takes a lot of shots while on the court, mixed with turnovers; and his shots don’t go in as often as they should for someone of his size. Staten Island’s Danny Jennings also gets some time.

Handling the ball will be Brooklyn’s Daryll “Truck” Bryant and Joe Mazzulla. Both guards are very good passers whose turnover numbers speak to occasional over-aggression. That aggression gets both to the free throw line, so it’s not all bad for them. Truck likes to shoot, even when sometimes he shouldn’t; Mazulla is far more judicious with his shot taking.

Keys to the Game

Keep them From Second Shots. Coach Bob Huggins’ teams attack the offensive glass with strength and abandon. They are incredibly physical. If St. John’s can clear their misses by grabbing defensive rebounds, they will cut down on the Mountaineers’ scoring.

Maintain Turnover Ratio. The Red Storm have done a very good job at holding on to the ball and forcing turnovers. Can the team continue to win the turnover battle? If so, the Johnnies stand a chance for some surprise wins. Against West Virginia – like against other opponents – St. John’s can’t afford to give up possible shots.

Attack and Draw Fouls. The Mountaineers’ defense can be hard to figure out – fundamentally sound, protective of the interior, and disruptive. The Red Storm offense will find it difficult to run crisp sets; they will need to outfight West Virginia and play a physical style of basketball. The Mountaineers also commit a good number of fouls. St. John’s needs to get to the free throw line… and hit their shots.

Cover Casey Mitchell. Mitchell is the team’s most dangerous offensive player, drawing fouls, driving, and hitting outside jumpers. St. John’s has struggled to cover perimeter shooters in the past. The team has to make a point to keep a hand in Mitchell’s face at all times and keep him from getting the ball.

Find a Way to Run/ Impose Pace. West Virginia plays a more controlled pace than St. John’s; they set up their defense and outwork their opponents, wear them down with physical defense. But if St. John’s can get some points on the run, they can gain control of the game – and score efficiently.

Prediction: St. John’s loses a competitive game, 71-66.

Ram Slam

December 10, 2010 by Pico Dulce Leave a Comment

After the last game – a loss to St. Bonaventure where the Johnnies’ lack of accuracy at the free throw line killed them (among other issues) – the team needs a refocusing game. A reboot. The fans need to keep hope alive. The players need to remember that there is a lot of good going on within the team, despite the flaws and occasional struggles. Everyone involved around St. John’s basketball needs to shake it off and focus on the next game

On Saturday, St. John’s faces another repeat opponent from last year – the in-city Fordham Rams. The Rams, coached by former Hofstra coach Tom Pecora, welcome the Johnnies to Bronx’ Rose Hill gym; it’s a road game, but not a real road game. It’s sold out, partly because of the St. John’s fans who will help fill up the 3000-seat arena.

In last year’s game at Carnesecca Arena, St. John’s beat Fordham soundly (73-56). How much better have they gotten with a new coach and new players? We will find out on Saturday night. The Rams consider this one of their biggest weeks; St. John’s needs to stamp out their hopes of a resurgence.

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Team Reviews – Fordham (4-4)

Fordham has doubled their win total from last year, with the most impressive win being a defeat of Lehigh on the road. The Rams have lost to Brown, Hampton, Long Island U, and Harvard, being fairly competitive in all but the Harvard game. That statement used to be embarrassing; but Harvard is very good this year.

The Rams give the ball away a fair amount while having one of the nation’s lowest rates of turnovers forced. That’s actually a Pecora staple; playing back, making the other team take tough contested shots, and clogging the lane. It’s helped the Rams; their defense has had some stingy moments. But unless they get stingier, they may want to end some teams’ possession with a turnover rather than a shot.

Fordham hasn’t been a great scoring team, but their individual scoring numbers should worry opponents. Their problem is that most of the player cough up the ball a lot. And the Rams only go 6 or 7 deep; fatigue could be a factor.

The man who takes the most shots is still Chris Gaston. He’s a mobile forward with a little range and fair strength. He has shot just under 50% from the field, rebounds the defensive end like a DeJuan Blair or Greedy Peterson (so far), and has gotten to the free throw line frequently. Then things go south – he’s shot 46% on his 50 free throw attempts.

The supporting cast has some strengths. Point guard Brenton Butler has had some strong games and doesn’t often turn over the ball. Freshman combo guard Branden Frazier and small forward Alberto Estwick both have shot decently from beyond the arc. Frazier does a number of things to fill the statsheet. Estwick has been steady outside the arc and strong inside the arc as well – he could be dangerous, but gets far fewer shots than his accuracy should indicate.

Forward Marvin Dominique rebounds well on both ends. Center Kervin Bristol blocks shots… that seems to be the extent of his contribution, though he did have 16 rebounds against Manhattan. Rayner Moquete gets some time, but hasn’t done any one thing well as yet.

Keys to the Game

Force Turnovers. Fordham turns the ball over. St. John’s would love to help them out by taking the ball and reducing the number of shots the Rams take.

Defend the Outside Shot. The Rams have some dangerous perimeter shooters; and defending the perimeter shot has been a weakness of the Red Storm.

Make the Shots. It doesn’t help to steal the ball if the Johnnies can’t convert on the other end.

Negate the Rebounders. The Rams have some size and skill on the boards; St. John’s needs an edge to extend possessions with offensive rebounds.

Get Into the Depth. Since the Rams only go 6 deep, their staff obviously doesn’t think their other players are ready. St. John’s should see how unready those players are.

Prediction: A bounce back win. 68-59, St. John’s

Seahawk Landing

December 1, 2010 by Pico Dulce Leave a Comment

The St. John’s squad is back from the land of roving moose and 20-hour dark, back home in their beds, in front of their fans and friends, and back in class. December is a good month on the schedule; Wednesday night is the beginning of almost a full month where the farthest the team has to travel is to Madison Square Garden and the Bronx.

Wagner – the little liberal arts school on Staten Island – is the first local opponent for the Red Storm. They compete in the Northeast Conference, and haven’t had much success with the whole basketball thing… so they hired high school coach Dan Hurley to coach them. The joke, of course, was that his high school could probably beat the Wagner Seahawks.

Dan comes with a family pedigree, and a pedigree from his playing days at Seton Hall. His more famous basketball playing brother, Bobby, was a storied point guard for the Duke Blue Devils. It’s strange for me to see two guys who were college stars when I was a teenager as head coaches, especially when they look so much less… collegiate.

St. John’s is expecting to take care of business, But the Hurley boys would certainly love a win over a Big East team to move their program’s progress along. It’s not just idle thought. The Seahwaks have played 4 of their five games on the road, and won 2 road matchups. What the Hurleys have done with talent that went 5-27 – and a trio of new players – is impressive. The Seahawks are road warriors; St. John’s needs to play seriously and not let the game slip out of their hands.

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Team Review

Wagner Seahawks (3-2)

So far, Wagner’s success comes from their ability to create points without scoring inside the arc, and very good field goal defense. The Seahawks are drilling shots at 45.6% from three-point line (top 10 in percentage in the country) and have harassed opponents into poor shooting nights. To top it off, they shoot 93% from the free throw line and get to the stripe at a solid clip.

Dominating in those aspects of the game should win every night. But the Seahawks turn the ball over on 22% of their possessions – not the worst, but that leaves points out on the floor. They shoot much more poorly inside the arc. Wagner also doesn’t rebound well at either end – missing out on second chance opportunities and giving up more shots to the opponent. And the fouling doesn’t help, though their number is skewed extremely by their fouls in the late minutes of their losses.

But remember: Wagner shoots from outside very well and have played in some close games. They are no pushovers. The starters are freshman guard Latif Rivers, Tyler Murray, Chris Martin, Naofall Falohan, and Orlando Parker.

[table id=148 /]

Murray and Martin were very good shooters last year from beyond the arc, and have stepped their games up. Tyler Murray is taking the ball inside more than Martin and freshman Rivers; at 6’5″, he’s been better at converting opportunities inside. Murray and Rivers take over 26% of the team’s shots apiece when they’re on the floor; they are the main offensive threats. All three are shooting above 47% on their three-point shots, and all shoot over 75% on their free throws, with 20 or more attempts apiece. They also distribute the assists evenly.

Danny Mundweiler is the first shooter off the bench and he can stroke it, nailing 43.8% of his three pointers. He can make some passes, but has a sub 1.0 assist to turnover ratio. The other backup who gets major minutes is athletic sophomore forward Josh Thompson, who crashes the offensive glass and will shoot the ball. His coach probably would like him to have made better than 5 of 28 shots (but he’s 9 of 10 from the free throw line). In the team’s two losses, he took 9 and 8 shots; in the wins, no more than 5.

Up front, Wagner starts two freshman forwards. Orlando Parker is from… Orlando, and comes with a reputation as a tall small forward – he can hit jump shots, but hasn’t taken a three… or gotten to the free throw line. He’s rebounded the defensive glass solidly, as has fellow freshman starter Naofall Folahan. Folahan’s been a shot blocker who also rebounds on both ends; he does not shoot often.

To protect the team’s starting bigs who manage to pick up around 3.5 fouls each per game in 15 minutes per, the Seahawks dig into their bench and play a smaller lineup with Ryan Schrotenboer, and Danny Mundeiler. Schroetenboer doesn’t seem to do much well except be tall and hit the occasional jumper; he may be a good position defender. There’s not much in the stat sheets that indicate why he plays. CJ Spiller is a senior holdover with height; Clayfell Harris is a widebodied British junior who provides depth up front.

St. John’s (4-1)

Paris dunk Great Alaska ADN — Paris Horne dunks on Sun Devils. From Anchorage Daily News

St. John’s has spent much of the month winning, but has a lot of room for improvement. It’s hard to say the team has been killing it on offense (besides in the Drake game), especially in the halfcourt.

The Red Storm are dependent on turnovers to fluster the opposing team. If they’re not forcing turnovers, they struggle to defend, especially from beyond the arc (and along the baseline). Opponents aren’t going inside, at least; though the Red Storm could also cut down on the fouling, though that is going to happen with aggressive defensive play.

The lack of turnovers for St. Johns offense – considering how much the players coughed the ball up over the past 3 years – is impressive, with the Red Storm averaging 9.8 turnovers per game. The difference may be that only Malik Boothe is putting possessions in danger – and he’s a point guard, his turnover numbers will be higher. The other players are hanging on to the ball and attacking.

[table id=147 /]

The rotation seems set, with the Maliks (Boothe and Malik Stith) playing the point guard and at times together for defensive pressure; DJ Kennedy, Dwight Hardy, and Paris Horne attacking from the perimeter; and Justin Brownlee in the post, sharing time with Dwayne Polee and Justin Burrell. The players have been efficient scorers except for Dwight Hardy; he has struggled to find the range on his jumper, but has worked admirably to draw fouls and contribute with a little more passing.

Keys to the Game

Close the Holes on the Outside of the Zone. Wagner might just have leads on St. John’s if the Red Storm can’t keep their shooters out of the edges of the zone.

Maintain Aggressiveness. The Seahawks will attack with some passion. St. John’s has to match that, and one-up their energy, forcing steals and keeping them out of their offense.

Spread the Scoring. This is less of a key and more of a goal the team should have. The team has to get some players back on scoring track – especially Dwight Hardy DJ Kennedy, and Dwayne Polee.

Crush Them On The Boards. They aren’t small, but St. John’s should still dominate on the glass.

Drive Time. The Seahawks are young, want to defend, and like to harass. St. John’s needs to be aggressive on offense, driving to the hole and drawing contact. Wagner is thin, and getting to their backup forwards will mean that the game will likely be a beating.

Prediction: St. John’s 76, Wagner 61