Ambiance: Fall Out Boy, Sugar We’re Going Down (video link, pops up in a new window)

Coach Norm Roberts – Pregame Quotes:

“We’re capable of it. We have to play 40 minutes. Syracuse is a great basketball team and doesn’t make many mistakes. We need to make shots and defend their players inside. Everything they do stems from their big guys keeping balls alive. We have to neutralize their big guys. They want to get the ball inside. Dele Coker and Justin Burrell should start for us tomorrow in a big lineup.”

Closing down the regular season are two road matchups – one in snowy Syracuse, and one in chilly Chicago. First is a matchup against the now consensus number 1 ranked Syracuse Orange in the Carrier Dome, where thousands of orange fans will be cheering their team to crush the red-clad opposition. Can the Red Storm catch Syracuse in the glow of their big win against Villanova and surprise the Orange?

The end of the season is near, and the efforts by the Red Storm to translate their better play into wins and move up in the standings have not been successful. The team has had better offense recently, and has improved from their turnover-prone past. But the small improvements haven’t been able to close the large gap between being in the bottom 4 and being in the middle 8. In fact, the results from this team (and perhaps the effort) have been inconsistent.

A slew of middling performances on offense against the top teams in the league suddenly gave way to veritable offensive explosions against Louisville, Notre Dame, and South Florida.

Meanwhile, the defensive performances have averaged out to decent for the Big East, but far from dominating; and blips like the performance against Pittsburgh (allowing 71 points on 47 shots) and Rutgers (84 points on 55 shots) keep the team far from defensively  competitive.  And those blips are indicative of a team whose concentration, and/ or planning, and/ or execution is not where it needs to be.  That should have fans questioning the team’s ability to pull a gritty win out.

Moreover, the upper level offensive teams had their way with the Red Storm, except for Louisville in the second matchup. Teams that score more of their points inside the arc like Connecticut and Pittsburgh have certainly enjoyed their success inside.

Meanwhile, Syracuse is fourth from the bottom of the Big East in three-pointers taken. Not a good matchup, there.

The Red Storm will need to defend the paint better than they did against the Panthers on Saturday. That said, St. John’s has gotten in some hot starts against teams that didn’t take them seriously – Villanova this year, #1 Pittsburgh last season… St. John’s might just come out ready to win the implausible.

Game Information

Tip Off: 7:00 PM, Tuesday, March 2
Location: Carrier Dome
TV: SNY
Radio: Bloomberg 1130

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Team Reviews

Syracuse (27-2, 14-2)

25 PG Brandon Triche SO 6’4 198: 8.6 ppg* 3.1 apg* 51.5% FG

1 G Andy Rautins JR 6’4 195: 11.8 ppg* 4.8 apg* 2.7 rpg* 2.1 spg* 40.3% 3PT

4 G Wesley Johnson JR 6’7 205: 15.7 ppg* 8.7 rpg* 2.4 apg* 1.7 spg* 1.7 bpg* 39% 3PT

00 F Rick Jackson SR 6’10 250: 10.3 ppg* 7 rpg* 1.1 spg* 2.1 bpg* 61% FG

21 C Arinze Onuaku JR 6’9 261: 10.3 ppg* 5.0 rpg* 1.1 bpg

Bench

11 G Antonio “Scoop” Jardine SO 6’2 190: 8 ppg* 4.5 apg* 1.2 spg

32 F Kris Joseph JR 6’7 207: 11.3 ppg* 5.4 rpg* 1.4 spg

The team that lost to local Division II LeMoyne College in exhibition play has topped 90 points 7 times, and have been dutifully blowing out everyone. But the thing that is elite about the team is their defense – they won’t foul opponents, and the sticky 2-3 zone forces teams to shoot 3-pointers… at a 32% clip. And they hold teams to 46.5% shooting from inside the arc. It’s the magic of a team defensive concept as opposed to individual defenders; a team that communicates well on defense and doesn’t allow any quick guards to leak through.

Forcing teams the shoot 3-pointers takes them out of a balanced offense; and Syracuse takes advantage by running with long rebounds and forcing turnovers with their length. The ballhandling is done by solid freshman Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine, who has become, apparently, an excellent passer and a capable shooter. Andy Rautins can catch-and-shoot for the three, but he can dribble a little bit – a very smart player. He has taken 79% of his shots from 3-point range in conference, and needs to be defended closely when the ball’s not in his hands as well.

On the wing, Wesley Johnson has been a spectacular playmaker who doesn’t need to take many shots. Note that he is shooting 16-55 (29%) from beyond the arc in conference play, however; and he has been struggling with a hand injury in recent games. Kris Joseph plays alongside Johnson, but functions as a wing. He is willing to take a jump shot and is a good, though not dominating, rebounder against Big east competition. That said, his might might be enough to dominate the St. John’s bigs.

Arinze Onuaku is an excellent center, rebounding and blocking shots. But he has been eclipsed a bit by Rick Jackson, who has been very good as a burly forward in the lane who also gets offensive rebounds. Neither of the two are good at shooting free throws.

St. John’s (15-13, 5-11)

3 PG Malik Boothe JR 5’9 188: 4.6 ppg* 2.3 apg

23 G Paris Horne JR 6’3 191: 8.3 ppg* 2.8 rpg* 36.3% 3PT

1 G-F DJ Kennedy JR 6’5 215: 14.6 ppg* 6.2 rpg* 2.9 apg* 33.3% 3PT* 1.2 spg

15 F-C Dele Coker JR 6’10 252: 8.9 mpg* 1.9 ppg* 1.7 rpg* 1.0 bpg* 64.7% FG

24 F Justin Burrell JR 6’8 235: 6.8 ppg* 4.3 rpg* 48.3% FG

Bench:

12 G Dwight Hardy JR 6′2 187: 22.9 mpg* 10.8 ppg* 38.6% 3PT

32 F Justin Brownlee JR 6′7 232: 18.4 mpg* 6.5 ppg* 4.8 rpg

2 G-F Anthony Mason Jr. SR 6’7 210: 6.6 ppg* 5.0 rpg* 1.8 apg

5 F Sean Evans JR 6’8 255: 21 mpg* 6.6 ppg* 5.9 rpg

31 PG Malik Stith FR 5’11 185: 11.8 mpg* 1.7 ppg* 1.3 apg

Dele Coker, who has logged under 9 minutes per game on the season and 6.3 minutes per game in conference (13 of 16 games), will get the start along with Justin Burrell, according to Norm Roberts’ pregame quotes.

In truth, there is nothing for St. John’s to get stressed about. The idea in this game is to find the little cracks in the zone, play with confidence – forgetting the two teams’ records – and making plays. To do this, they’re going to have to get the ball to Justin Burrell and Dele Coker, two players who can hit that midrange jump shot. Justin Brownlee could be a strong factor as well; he has athleticism and length to get his shot off. And the coach is right, Syracuse’s bigs really dominate the glass on defense. The could be second chance points, though, according to what Syracuse has given up.

Running when possible and squaring up to shoot 3-pointers will give the Red Storm chances to score; it will be hard to get the ball inside unless the team is very crisp.

Keys to the Game

No Easy Runs. In the loss against Louisville, the Cardinals restricted the pace. And St. John’s has to take a cue from that, making the game slow and ugly. No one gets out. NO ONE. No run outs. The goal on defense has to be first and foremost to slow them down and keep them from crushing, crowd-pleasing runs.

Clog the Interior. St. John’s has to use what height they have to get poor shots out of Rick Jackson and Onuaku. Those two are the most efficient scorers on a team that prefers to go inside rather than jack shots from the outside. The team has balanced scoring, so they CAN score without those two; but good interior defense will slow down the Orange attack.

Shoot The Lights Out. St. John’s is going to need, at the very least, a good offensive performance to compete with the Orange. A great performance could make the fans in the dome get a little tight.

Catch Them Sloppy. If the Syracuse team comes out with a lackadaisical attitude, or loses concentration, the Red Storm have to attack them hard. If they can force turnovers from the Orange and score off of those, throw off their offensive attack, the team can give themselves a chance to win.

Own the Glass. Restricting second chance points will go far towards keeping the Syracuse scoring total within a reachable point for St. John’s.

Prediction: St. John’s loses control in the second half. 78-59, Syracuse.

Transplanted New Yorker and now Midwesterner Peter a/k/a Pico writes for the East Coast Bias and the Church of Bracketology and for Johnny Jungle, doing the Calm Before the Storm posts. Pico is also on Twitter, @ECoastBias.