The St. John’s squad is back from the land of roving moose and 20-hour dark, back home in their beds, in front of their fans and friends, and back in class. December is a good month on the schedule; Wednesday night is the beginning of almost a full month where the farthest the team has to travel is to Madison Square Garden and the Bronx.
Wagner – the little liberal arts school on Staten Island – is the first local opponent for the Red Storm. They compete in the Northeast Conference, and haven’t had much success with the whole basketball thing… so they hired high school coach Dan Hurley to coach them. The joke, of course, was that his high school could probably beat the Wagner Seahawks.
Dan comes with a family pedigree, and a pedigree from his playing days at Seton Hall. His more famous basketball playing brother, Bobby, was a storied point guard for the Duke Blue Devils. It’s strange for me to see two guys who were college stars when I was a teenager as head coaches, especially when they look so much less… collegiate.
St. John’s is expecting to take care of business, But the Hurley boys would certainly love a win over a Big East team to move their program’s progress along. It’s not just idle thought. The Seahwaks have played 4 of their five games on the road, and won 2 road matchups. What the Hurleys have done with talent that went 5-27 – and a trio of new players – is impressive. The Seahawks are road warriors; St. John’s needs to play seriously and not let the game slip out of their hands.
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Team Review
Wagner Seahawks (3-2)
So far, Wagner’s success comes from their ability to create points without scoring inside the arc, and very good field goal defense. The Seahawks are drilling shots at 45.6% from three-point line (top 10 in percentage in the country) and have harassed opponents into poor shooting nights. To top it off, they shoot 93% from the free throw line and get to the stripe at a solid clip.
Dominating in those aspects of the game should win every night. But the Seahawks turn the ball over on 22% of their possessions – not the worst, but that leaves points out on the floor. They shoot much more poorly inside the arc. Wagner also doesn’t rebound well at either end – missing out on second chance opportunities and giving up more shots to the opponent. And the fouling doesn’t help, though their number is skewed extremely by their fouls in the late minutes of their losses.
But remember: Wagner shoots from outside very well and have played in some close games. They are no pushovers. The starters are freshman guard Latif Rivers, Tyler Murray, Chris Martin, Naofall Falohan, and Orlando Parker.
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Murray and Martin were very good shooters last year from beyond the arc, and have stepped their games up. Tyler Murray is taking the ball inside more than Martin and freshman Rivers; at 6’5″, he’s been better at converting opportunities inside. Murray and Rivers take over 26% of the team’s shots apiece when they’re on the floor; they are the main offensive threats. All three are shooting above 47% on their three-point shots, and all shoot over 75% on their free throws, with 20 or more attempts apiece. They also distribute the assists evenly.
Danny Mundweiler is the first shooter off the bench and he can stroke it, nailing 43.8% of his three pointers. He can make some passes, but has a sub 1.0 assist to turnover ratio. The other backup who gets major minutes is athletic sophomore forward Josh Thompson, who crashes the offensive glass and will shoot the ball. His coach probably would like him to have made better than 5 of 28 shots (but he’s 9 of 10 from the free throw line). In the team’s two losses, he took 9 and 8 shots; in the wins, no more than 5.
Up front, Wagner starts two freshman forwards. Orlando Parker is from… Orlando, and comes with a reputation as a tall small forward – he can hit jump shots, but hasn’t taken a three… or gotten to the free throw line. He’s rebounded the defensive glass solidly, as has fellow freshman starter Naofall Folahan. Folahan’s been a shot blocker who also rebounds on both ends; he does not shoot often.
To protect the team’s starting bigs who manage to pick up around 3.5 fouls each per game in 15 minutes per, the Seahawks dig into their bench and play a smaller lineup with Ryan Schrotenboer, and Danny Mundeiler. Schroetenboer doesn’t seem to do much well except be tall and hit the occasional jumper; he may be a good position defender. There’s not much in the stat sheets that indicate why he plays. CJ Spiller is a senior holdover with height; Clayfell Harris is a widebodied British junior who provides depth up front.
St. John’s (4-1)
St. John’s has spent much of the month winning, but has a lot of room for improvement. It’s hard to say the team has been killing it on offense (besides in the Drake game), especially in the halfcourt.
The Red Storm are dependent on turnovers to fluster the opposing team. If they’re not forcing turnovers, they struggle to defend, especially from beyond the arc (and along the baseline). Opponents aren’t going inside, at least; though the Red Storm could also cut down on the fouling, though that is going to happen with aggressive defensive play.
The lack of turnovers for St. Johns offense – considering how much the players coughed the ball up over the past 3 years – is impressive, with the Red Storm averaging 9.8 turnovers per game. The difference may be that only Malik Boothe is putting possessions in danger – and he’s a point guard, his turnover numbers will be higher. The other players are hanging on to the ball and attacking.
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The rotation seems set, with the Maliks (Boothe and Malik Stith) playing the point guard and at times together for defensive pressure; DJ Kennedy, Dwight Hardy, and Paris Horne attacking from the perimeter; and Justin Brownlee in the post, sharing time with Dwayne Polee and Justin Burrell. The players have been efficient scorers except for Dwight Hardy; he has struggled to find the range on his jumper, but has worked admirably to draw fouls and contribute with a little more passing.
Keys to the Game
Close the Holes on the Outside of the Zone. Wagner might just have leads on St. John’s if the Red Storm can’t keep their shooters out of the edges of the zone.
Maintain Aggressiveness. The Seahawks will attack with some passion. St. John’s has to match that, and one-up their energy, forcing steals and keeping them out of their offense.
Spread the Scoring. This is less of a key and more of a goal the team should have. The team has to get some players back on scoring track – especially Dwight Hardy DJ Kennedy, and Dwayne Polee.
Crush Them On The Boards. They aren’t small, but St. John’s should still dominate on the glass.
Drive Time. The Seahawks are young, want to defend, and like to harass. St. John’s needs to be aggressive on offense, driving to the hole and drawing contact. Wagner is thin, and getting to their backup forwards will mean that the game will likely be a beating.
Prediction: St. John’s 76, Wagner 61