Let's say we finish .500 this year

I posted this on BEB already.  Not trying to ruffle feathers, just want to honest input during a relatively slow period.

Anyway, even if we finish .500 this year how are we not going to take a step back next year losing Mase? 

I like the sophomore class a lot, but there really isn't a primary scoring threat, save for pehaps Burrell.  If they had a couple of top 25-50 caliber seniors leading them, I'd be feel real good.  I think Omari will be terrific for us, but you can't expect a freshman to replace the production of a senior like Mason.

Additionally, I worry that JB will be facing double and triple teams as we won't really have a killer perimter game and the opposing point guard will be able to play far off Malik, as he is no threat to shoot even from midrange. 

What worries me is that JB will be our best player by a mile, but the four spot is the most talented position in the league!  Looking at the bottom of the league alone you see guys up front like #18 Mac Koshwal at Depaul, #22 Yancy Gates at Cincy, #50 Echinique at Rutgers, and, possibly, Pope at Seton Hall. 

Then you add to that the monsters like Harangody and Dejaun Blair already in the league and the depth and talent at schools like Uconn, 'Ville, and Gtown! 

After JB there is NOTHING up front.  No center to help him out and no depth to back him up. 

I think we have enough concerns for this year and you're already worrying about next year.  I'll worry about next year...next year.

I think we have enough concerns for this year and you're already worrying about next year.  I'll worry about next year...next year.

LOL

Just trying to keep things in perspective.  I think best case we win 15 games this year and finish just below .500.  It would be an absolute miracle to finish .500 or beter.  That would normally signify growth, but, like after we lost Hamilton, the team will naturally regress for at least a year without Mason or any real primary scorer. 

Realisitically, our best chance to win will be in two years when Omari (and hopefully another highly ranked scoring option) will be able to shoulder the scoring load with our then solid senior class. 

maybe .500 in the BE will change my mind in keeping norm..

I've been keeping my eyes open for a less dismal season - all the youth + inexperience of last year really showed on defense.  And I think JB shows too much talent and quickness to NOT be better this year - he was double teamed for a reason.  And all of the players can't look as lost as they did last year, and Boothe can't possibly shoot that badly (or if he does, he will look to draw fouls/ drive inside).

That said, if I were a decision-maker for this team, I'd want to see the team over .500 with an emerging star or two, or well under .500.  A 9-9 record would look like significant progress, but would be on the shoulders of a greenlighted senior.  Omari can't just step in and take those shots.  A well-under .500 record might mean that the administration looks for a new coach, since the current one has had a year and an offseason with his recruiting class, the year that players tend to show how they'll really do on the D1 level.
 
Then again, if the league is as tough as the punditry thinks it will be, a .500 record would have to mean that some of the players are bonafide Big East ballers.

Note: with Wait being classified as a sophomore, that means that of the 12 scholarship players, St. John's has 8 sophomores.  A base of talent is one thing, but having to recruit 8 impact players in another year is not a way to make steady progress.  So any step back taken next year is nothing like the step back that may be taken in 3.

Note: with Wait being classified as a sophomore, that means that of the 12 scholarship players, St. John's has 8 sophomores.  A base of talent is one thing, but having to recruit 8 impact players in another year is not a way to make steady progress.  So any step back taken next year is nothing like the step back that may be taken in 3.

Are you sure that no one of the eight sophomores is going to transfer?

I've been keeping my eyes open for a less dismal season - all the youth + inexperience of last year really showed on defense.  And I think JB shows too much talent and quickness to NOT be better this year - he was double teamed for a reason.  And all of the players can't look as lost as they did last year, and Boothe can't possibly shoot that badly (or if he does, he will look to draw fouls/ drive inside).

That said, if I were a decision-maker for this team, I'd want to see the team over .500 with an emerging star or two, or well under .500.  A 9-9 record would look like significant progress, but would be on the shoulders of a greenlighted senior.  Omari can't just step in and take those shots.  A well-under .500 record might mean that the administration looks for a new coach, since the current one has had a year and an offseason with his recruiting class, the year that players tend to show how they'll really do on the D1 level.
 
Then again, if the league is as tough as the punditry thinks it will be, a .500 record would have to mean that some of the players are bonafide Big East ballers.

Note: with Wait being classified as a sophomore, that means that of the 12 scholarship players, St. John's has 8 sophomores.  A base of talent is one thing, but having to recruit 8 impact players in another year is not a way to make steady progress.  So any step back taken next year is nothing like the step back that may be taken in 3.

Very good post, Peter.  You are right about the step back after we lose all of those soph's--yikes!  I can't believe we have that many sophomores.  

It seems like we will have a window of one year, when JB, Kennedy, Malik, Paris, and Coker/Wait are seniors and Omari is experienced enough to be the leading scorer to make a run at the postseason.  After that we will fall back once again.  

Quote from: peter on November 12, 2008, 12:17:09 PM

Note: with Wait being classified as a sophomore, that means that of the 12 scholarship players, St. John's has 8 sophomores.  A base of talent is one thing, but having to recruit 8 impact players in another year is not a way to make steady progress.  So any step back taken next year is nothing like the step back that may be taken in 3.

Are you sure that no one of the eight sophomores is going to transfer?

Sure?  Hey, man, I don't coach 'em!!!

The thing I think is preemptive is in talking about who's gonna transfer.  One thing I am confident of is that
we can't make long term determinations about the players on the roster based on last year.  I won't even think about who'll be here next year before seeing a few games.  At many schools guys aren't getting the PT they think they deserve, and that might happen here as well. 

Quote from: gonzalo on November 12, 2008, 12:30:45 PM

Quote from: peter on November 12, 2008, 12:17:09 PM

Note: with Wait being classified as a sophomore, that means that of the 12 scholarship players, St. John's has 8 sophomores.  A base of talent is one thing, but having to recruit 8 impact players in another year is not a way to make steady progress.  So any step back taken next year is nothing like the step back that may be taken in 3.

Are you sure that no one of the eight sophomores is going to transfer?

Sure?  Hey, man, I don't coach 'em!!!

The thing I think is preemptive is in talking about who's gonna transfer.  One thing I am confident of is that
we can't make long term determinations about the players on the roster based on last year.  I won't even think about who'll be here next year before seeing a few games.  At many schools guys aren't getting the PT they think they deserve, and that might happen here as well. 

Of course, you don´t coach 'em.

But I consider two things:

1) St. John´s has had many transfers since Lou left.
2) More players (from good, regular and bad teams) transfer now than 10-15 years ago.