11-1 a must in non conf

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Tha Kid

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11-1 a must in non conf
« on: November 29, 2009, 08:09:13 AM »
After these huge wins it would be a disappointment to go anything less than 11-1 before BE play. Duke is the game we can and will lose down in durham, and I think its great we play them down there. Will give our guys a game in an environment more hostile than anywhere in the big east. All you can hope from the game is they play tough and get something out of it.

If we go 11-1, you put yourself in a position to go 9-9 in conf play, win one BE tourney game and potentially make the ncaa with 21 wins. Personally I think 22 wins is the magic number for us this year but ya never know.

Please don't misinterpret this post - I still assume we will randomly lose to someone we shouldn't and go 10-2 or 9-3 in the non conf sched, but 11-1 is certainly attainable now, and it is what we MUST finish if we want a real shot at ncaa.
"I drink and I know things"

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #1 on: November 29, 2009, 09:27:12 AM »
I think that's certainly realistic. I'm not sure there is a magic number of games to win. By season's end we will have certainly played one of the toughest schedules in the country. Maybe 21-22 does it but NCAA field has been tougher and tougher to make every year and sometimes minimum win total is 23-24.

I do think 11-1 and 9-9 are certainly good enough however I think we'd have to have a stronger showing in the Big East tourney.
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Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #2 on: November 29, 2009, 09:31:56 AM »
Way too early to talk NCAA...way too early
When you're a kid from New York and you do it in New York, that lasts forever!

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #3 on: November 29, 2009, 10:16:04 AM »
Way too early to talk NCAA...way too early

No one's pegging St. John's in the tourney but you can certainly talk scenario.
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peter

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Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #4 on: November 29, 2009, 10:35:12 AM »
I think the Big East will tell the tale.  First, I think Hofstra and Cornell and even Davidson are very good teams.  I haven't been following Georgia, but - wait. Holy crap they're awful, they lost to Wofford...

Sorry for that diversion.  Anyway, I think even beating Cornell for the Holiday Fest title and going 11-1 doesn't mean this team can cut the mustard against the much more physical Big East, with teams that can run kind of like Siena and muscle like Temple, but score more than both.  And consider we haven't faced a team with a stable of big men.  That's gonna be a problem.

TONYD3

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Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #5 on: November 29, 2009, 10:39:19 AM »
Not to early at all! play one game at a time but set your goals high. Duke is a better team and really tough at home. But we should concede nothing. I think the last time Duke lost at home not in Conference was from a team from Queens. Next up Stony Brook.

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #6 on: November 29, 2009, 10:42:03 AM »
Some teams in the Big East are surprising me early on. I knew Cincy, Seton Hall, and USF would all be improved but Marquette? Damn they're playing awesome basketball. That game at Carnesecca is going to be huge!

Also we can't sleep on Hofstra. They are sneaky good and they are most definitely going to come at us like a hungry pack of wolves.

If we extend our defensive pressure, I don't see Cornell being a problem. They are all about the catch and shoot but force them to put the ball on the floor rut-roh!
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Poison

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Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #7 on: November 29, 2009, 11:11:42 AM »
Marquette is always good.

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #8 on: November 29, 2009, 01:01:50 PM »
Hofstra game should be interesting, as they are strong in the backcourt but not in the front court. 
"When excuses become your reason for losing then it is time to find the nearest mirror." -Mike Dunlap

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #9 on: November 29, 2009, 01:06:42 PM »
we are 2 wins from being in the top 25!!

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #10 on: November 29, 2009, 01:35:32 PM »
they're awful, they lost to Wofford...


Wofford almost beat Pitt too though.
When you're a kid from New York and you do it in New York, that lasts forever!

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #11 on: November 29, 2009, 02:10:36 PM »
Fellas, its not a bad thing to be optimistic. Some posters are standing on the fence

Marillac

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Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #12 on: November 29, 2009, 02:15:24 PM »
After these huge wins it would be a disappointment to go anything less than 11-1 before BE play. Duke is the game we can and will lose down in durham, and I think its great we play them down there. Will give our guys a game in an environment more hostile than anywhere in the big east. All you can hope from the game is they play tough and get something out of it.

If we go 11-1, you put yourself in a position to go 9-9 in conf play, win one BE tourney game and potentially make the ncaa with 21 wins. Personally I think 22 wins is the magic number for us this year but ya never know.

Please don't misinterpret this post - I still assume we will randomly lose to someone we shouldn't and go 10-2 or 9-3 in the non conf sched, but 11-1 is certainly attainable now, and it is what we MUST finish if we want a real shot at ncaa.

I completely agree.  Assuming a loss @ Duke, we have three "tough" games against Georgia, Hofstra, and Cornell.  In years past, I would say we might lose one of those, but this year's group seems to be able to create points in situations that were just not there under Norm's other teams--putbacks, transition, etc.  DJ also seems to have acquired an understanding that he has to get the rim.  And let's face it, the scoring from Hardy and Brownlee is exactly what we've missed the last few years.  Be able to pull those two off the bench--along with Stith--is so much better than Ty and Q last year.

The good news is that we play Georgia at home right after the Duke game.  So even if we lose, the motivation and the experience of playing a great team should really help us.  Georgia is 3-3, Hofstra is 3-2 and played Uconn tough, and Cornell is 4-2 with a relatively close loss to Syracuse and another Big East school.  Davidson is 1-5, so I'm assuming we play Cornell.

I think 22 is certainly the magic number when you look at the past few years, but I think our RPI will be very strong this season because of the three wins we picked up over solid teams away from home.  I think Temple, Siena, and St. Boanventure will all win 16+ this year and every time they win, we will benefit. 

Props to whoever made the schedule this year.  Just fantastic.  I'm so glad we played St. Bonaventure on the road early, instead of beating up teams like NJIT in the early games and then not knowing what to expect when we play a team like Hofstra.  The cupcakes are still there, but they are perfectly timed and spread out.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2009, 02:22:55 PM by Marillac »

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #13 on: November 29, 2009, 03:58:47 PM »


Props to whoever made the schedule this year.  Just fantastic.  I'm so glad we played St. Bonaventure on the road early, instead of beating up teams like NJIT in the early games and then not knowing what to expect when we play a team like Hofstra.  The cupcakes are still there, but they are perfectly timed and spread out.

I do agree, the schedule this year is a lot better than in years past. However, scheduling Bryant (0-5 and the same bryant that lost to NJIT last year) as our last non-conference game before conference plays starts, is a head scratcher.

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #14 on: November 29, 2009, 04:20:05 PM »
11-1 would be huge for our chances. I posted this earlier (in the prediction thread) for some of the stat gurus to check on but did not get a reply. Looking briefly at the recent history it seems like 20 wins and .500 or greater record in Big East play equals NCAA bound.

By this criteria, if we manage somehow to be 11-1 non-conference, then 9-9 (total 20-10) should put us there, especially since I believe our strength of schedule should end up strong.

If we end up at 10-2 then we would need 9-9, plus a Big East Tournament win. The extra win in non-conference could mean the difference in getting in if we were to lose a Big East tournament first game heartbreaker. This is not unreasonable since 9-9 would put us against a similar strength team in the Big East tournament opener.

Obviously, I hope we can be into the NCAA's by a more solid margin, but if it comes down to it, getting in barely would likely be the difference in Norm getting over the hump and having a shot at a great recruiting class in 2011 or never getting over the hump. In my opinion, it could be that close.

Marillac

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Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #15 on: November 29, 2009, 04:34:30 PM »
I have to believe that 21 will get us in.  Three wins away from home already, two games in the Holiday Festival on a neutral court (I believe), and all against top 150 RPI schools when all is said and done.  All five of which will be 16+ in the win column by year's end. 

Then factor in a strong SOS and a schedule that includes, #10 Syracuse, #7 Duke, # 16 Louisville 2x, # 4Nova, #8 WV, etc., wins looks pretty nice. 

I would have to assume that 21 wins (counting the five away from home and a few from the top 50 over the course of the season) with our SOS will put us in the top 40 in the RPI.  The RPI is really the deciding factor when you get to 19 wins. 

Yeah, it's WAY early, but it's been six years since we could even discuss this topic.  Maybe we lose by 30 @ Duke in a week?  I have to believe they are going to be FIRED UP going into Cameron at 6-0 and three quality wins under their belts. 

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #16 on: November 29, 2009, 04:38:06 PM »
I know some people may find this shocking but do we get some votes on Monday for top 25? Our RPI is currently #2 in the country. I don't think we'll be top 25 but we might get some votes which would be cool. 2011 class how you doing? Ring Ring Ring
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Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #17 on: November 29, 2009, 04:47:50 PM »
I broke down our schedule before the season started, and came up with the magic # of wins being 21.  If we can get to 21 wins, there are going to be some very good wins in there.  I never expected to be 5-0, and the majority of our 5 wins are going to look even better when the season is over.  Bonnies, Siena and Temple are good teams!!

In regards to getting votes for top 25....I think we have a shot to get a few.  But I think it might be a little too early for that.  A win on Wednesday and a good showing in Cameron and I think the following week, we should definitely get votes!

Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #18 on: November 29, 2009, 04:53:26 PM »
WE're going to spank both Stony Brook and Hofstra, this is a totally different team and mindset than years past. Time to put our foot on their throats. No mercy


Marillac

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Re: 11-1 a must in non conf
« Reply #19 on: November 29, 2009, 05:03:42 PM »
WE're going to spank both Stony Brook and Hofstra, this is a totally different team and mindset than years past. Time to put our foot on their throats. No mercy



I haven't even seen a game yet and I agree that there is something different about this team.  Last year if either Horne or DJ had a bad day, it was over.  There was nothing anyone could do to remedy that. 

This year Brownlee and Hardy (and later Mase) can fill in.  Our bench is not a liability either.  It's more of a matter of when Norm want so pull the instant offense card.  Last year our best sub was Q by a Mile, and now he's behind Omari as our fifth off the bench (if he gets off at all). 

I think athletic ability alone gets us by Cornell. We beat them last year and have far more depth and talent now. We match up well against Hofstra, because Horne can lockup Jenkins.  I love when a team has a two-guard that is far and away their best player, because Horne can essentially take them out of the game. 

If we hit even 20 wins, just think of the teams we would have had to beat.  Cornell will probably make the tournament and Siena, Temple, and Hofstra will challenge.  A loss on the road to Duke it nothing, but if we can somehow beat a few top 25 teams along the way, that would be HUGE.