Around Big East

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Foad

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3640 on: November 23, 2018, 09:44:36 AM »
You're only looking at the game that have been played to this point. If you look at the overall schedule, it's not even close that Marquette has the far better schedule. Of their 13 OOC games, they have 7 gimme wins, 3 toss ups that would be considered good wins, 1 should win that would be solid, and 2 likely losses where they are essentially freerolling. That's pretty perfect. Them beating Buffalo would be a better win than any of our first 12 games. And that's their 5th or 6th toughest game.

On KenPom, which everybody including the committee looks at now, we dropped 5 spots since beating Cal + VCU. Marquette moved up 1 in their loss to Kansas.

Again, these coaches and ADs have their jobs on the line depending on their program's success, almost all of that revolves around making the NCAA Tournament for major conference teams. If the easiest way to ensure success was to load up on easy wins then everybody would do it. These guys wouldn't be risking their jobs by scheduling good teams if that wasn't the optimal strategy.

Yes I'm only looking at the games that have been played thus far because I can't see into the future and yes MU has a better schedule, I'm not denying that and maybe SJ schedule stinks, I'm not denying that either but I can't help but notice that with all that typing you did you avoided answering a simple question.

Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3641 on: November 23, 2018, 11:50:25 AM »
The year is 2058, Johnny Jungle is still talking about the scheduling of the 2018-19 season.

goredmen

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3642 on: November 23, 2018, 01:36:17 PM »
Yes I'm only looking at the games that have been played thus far because I can't see into the future and yes MU has a better schedule, I'm not denying that and maybe SJ schedule stinks, I'm not denying that either but I can't help but notice that with all that typing you did you avoided answering a simple question.

I'd rather be 3-2 with Marquette's schedule than 5-0 with ours. We will likely need to have 3-4 more wins than them to be in a better position on selection sunday

Foad

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3643 on: November 23, 2018, 02:05:19 PM »
I'd rather be 3-2 with Marquette's schedule than 5-0 with ours. We will likely need to have 3-4 more wins than them to be in a better position on selection sunday

Okay then, 3D chess it is. I'd rather win games than lose them.

goredmen

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3644 on: November 23, 2018, 02:37:23 PM »
Okay then, 3D chess it is. I'd rather win games than lose them.

I wonder if there’s still time to back out of the Duke game and play St Francis that day instead

Marillac

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3645 on: November 23, 2018, 02:41:46 PM »
The year is 2058, Johnny Jungle is still talking about the scheduling of the 2018-19 season.

And you are 20 years post-op from your sex change, prefer to be refered to as gender queer, and continue to bless the board with sunshine and snowflakes.

Marillac

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3646 on: November 23, 2018, 02:43:41 PM »
I'd rather be 3-2 with Marquette's schedule than 5-0 with ours. We will likely need to have 3-4 more wins than them to be in a better position on selection sunday

Wow.

Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3647 on: November 23, 2018, 02:52:46 PM »
And you are 20 years post-op from your sex change, prefer to be refered to as gender queer, and continue to bless the board with sunshine and snowflakes.


Foad

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3648 on: November 23, 2018, 04:41:30 PM »
I wonder if there’s still time to back out of the Duke game and play St Francis that day instead

Honest question, not my usual snarky BS.

Assuming that you could have made the schedule in an ideal world: how many losses do you think it would benefit SJ to have going into conference play?

Marquette's remaining "perfect" OOC schedule comprises four quite loseable good home losses against Louisville, K St, Wisconsin and Buffalo (the latter three ranked) and four pretty much garbage wins against Charleston, UTEP, North Dakota, and Southern. All eight games are at home and they should be favored in each. If they split the four good loss games (obviously they could win all four) and sweep the garbage that makes them carry the one 9-4 going into conference play, having played one road game, a loss, and having lost three at home, and having two quality wins and three good losses. They'd have 18 conference games left, meaning they need to go 11-7 to win 20. Is that about where you'd like SJ to be? Having lost half as many games as they've won and having to win twice as many as they lose to win 20? That is, IOW, with 2/3's of their wins comprising garbage, and a couple of quality wins and a couple of quality losses and one road game out of 13?

I'd rather be 13-0 or 12-1, where .500 ish in conference (and if they go .500 in conference what difference does it make if they make the tournament, they'll get bounced in the first round) and a BE tournament win gives them 23 or 24 wins in one of the top three conferences in the country.

PS Marquette is currently 35th at KenPom and SJU is currently 44th, shirley that must be a mistake.

goredmen

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3649 on: November 23, 2018, 05:32:32 PM »

Assuming that you could have made the schedule in an ideal world: how many losses do you think it would benefit SJ to have going into conference play?

The point is not having a certain amount of losses, it's about having opportunities to pick up good wins. When scheduling games where you can pick up good wins, that usually means those are against teams that can beat you. Losses to Kansas, @Indiana and Wisconsin won't hurt you, but beating them would definitely help beyond just adding a 1 to the W column. Losses to Cal, VCU, Georgia Tech would hurt, and those wins are pretty much only adding a number before the dash.

Marquette's remaining "perfect" OOC schedule comprises four quite loseable good home losses against Louisville, K St, Wisconsin and Buffalo (the latter three ranked) and four pretty much garbage wins against Charleston, UTEP, North Dakota, and Southern. All eight games are at home and they should be favored in each. If they split the four good loss games (obviously they could win all four) and sweep the garbage that makes them carry the one 9-4 going into conference play, having played one road game, a loss, and having lost three at home, and having two quality wins and three good losses. They'd have 18 conference games left, meaning they need to go 11-7 to win 20. Is that about where you'd like SJ to be? Having lost half as many games as they've won and having to win twice as many as they lose to win 20? That is, IOW, with 2/3's of their wins comprising garbage, and a couple of quality wins and a couple of quality losses and one road game out of 13?

Yes, Marquette pretty much has 7 slam-dunk wins on their schedule. That's probably a good number. The other 6 games range from 2 likely losses which are essentially freerolls (Kansas, @Indiana), 2 true toss ups (Wisconsin + Kansas State at home) and 2 small favorites (Louisville neutral, Buffalo home).

If you go 3-3 in those 6 games, that's not great, but still pretty good. Even 2-4 isn't a backbreaker by any stretch of the imagination. Any worse and you're probably not good enough to achieve anything anyway.

Compare that to our schedule. We have 1 likely loss (@Duke), 0 true toss ups, 1 small favorite (@Rutgers), 2 moderate favorite (VCU + Georgia Tech) and 9 slam-dunk wins.

Marquette pretty much has 6 chances to pick up wins better than any of ours. So even if they go 2-4, those 2 wins are better than any of ours.

I'd rather be 13-0 or 12-1, where .500 ish in conference (and if they go .500 in conference what difference does it make if they make the tournament, they'll get bounced in the first round) and a BE tournament win gives them 23 or 24 wins in one of the top three conferences in the country.

Let's assume we go 12-1 and Marquette goes 10-3 in OOC. If both teams then go 10-10 in the BE regular season + tournament, they would be in a better spot than we are in terms of the NCAA Tournament, probably by a solid amount.

Marquette also has margin for error where we don't. Anything worse than 12-1 for us hurts because those would then be bad losses. If we go 10-3 in OOC we'd need to win 12-13 BE games at least to re-enter the NCAA Tournament conversation. Marquette just has to go .500 in the BE with a 10-3 OOC record.

Also, while the BE was certainly a top 3 conference the past few years, that just isn't the case this year. The ACC, B10 and SEC are solidly ahead of the BE this year. The league is down this year. That's another reason why the weak OOC schedule especially hurts this year.

PS Marquette is currently 35th at KenPom and SJU is currently 44th, shirley that must be a mistake.

Doesn't this kind of prove my point? We are 5-0, they are 3-2 and yet they are ranked higher.

My entire point is that this is by far the best SJU roster since Ron Artest was named Ron Artest. If the goal and expectation for this team is to be an 9 seed and either lose in the first round or win and then get throttled by the 1 seed, then this schedule is fine. We also may as well move to the NEC as we'll never achieve anything worthwhile again if that's all we're shooting for this year. The goal for this team should be a 4-5 seed and a Sweet 16. It will be much more difficult to achieve that if you don't have any good non-conference wins.
« Last Edit: November 23, 2018, 05:34:49 PM by goredmen »

Foad

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3650 on: November 23, 2018, 07:42:34 PM »
The point is not having a certain amount of losses, it's about having opportunities to pick up good wins. When scheduling games where you can pick up good wins, that usually means those are against teams that can beat you. Losses to Kansas, @Indiana and Wisconsin won't hurt you, but beating them would definitely help beyond just adding a 1 to the W column. Losses to Cal, VCU, Georgia Tech would hurt, and those wins are pretty much only adding a number before the dash.

Okay, but SJ didn't lose any of those games and Marquette hasn't won any of those games. Let's reconvene in a month. Because if SJ is 13-0 at the end of December and Marquette is 6-7, I don't care who they nearly beat.

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Yes, Marquette pretty much has 7 slam-dunk wins on their schedule. That's probably a good number. The other 6 games range from 2 likely losses which are essentially freerolls (Kansas, @Indiana), 2 true toss ups (Wisconsin + Kansas State at home) and 2 small favorites (Louisville neutral, Buffalo home).

If you go 3-3 in those 6 games, that's not great, but still pretty good. Even 2-4 isn't a backbreaker by any stretch of the imagination. Any worse and you're probably not good enough to achieve anything anyway.

Compare that to our schedule. We have 1 likely loss (@Duke), 0 true toss ups, 1 small favorite (@Rutgers), 2 moderate favorite (VCU + Georgia Tech) and 9 slam-dunk wins.

Probably not good enough to achieve anything is exactly right, no matter who you're talking about. You have to beat the teams you play to achieve anything. If SJ is not good enough to beat the OOC teams they play and is not good enough work their way to the top of the conference, I don't care what their seed is. They're one and out.

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Marquette pretty much has 6 chances to pick up wins better than any of ours. So even if they go 2-4, those 2 wins are better than any of ours.

I don't understand a universe where 2-4 is better than 6-0. I just don't.

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Let's assume we go 12-1 and Marquette goes 10-3 in OOC. If both teams then go 10-10 in the BE regular season + tournament, they would be in a better spot than we are in terms of the NCAA Tournament, probably by a solid amount.

Marquette also has margin for error where we don't. Anything worse than 12-1 for us hurts because those would then be bad losses. If we go 10-3 in OOC we'd need to win 12-13 BE games at least to re-enter the NCAA Tournament conversation. Marquette just has to go .500 in the BE with a 10-3 OOC record.

Also, while the BE was certainly a top 3 conference the past few years, that just isn't the case this year. The ACC, B10 and SEC are solidly ahead of the BE this year. The league is down this year. That's another reason why the weak OOC schedule especially hurts this year.

This paragraph essentially can be distilled to: assume MU is a better BB team than SJ and assume that MU has a better season than SJ, then wouldn't MU get a more favorable seed in the NCAA tournament than SJ. Well, yes, and they'd deserve it. Whereas if SJ runs the table OOC and is 14-6 in the BE, they're a 4 seed and if MU is 7-10 in the BE they're in the NIT. Again, reconvene.


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PS Marquette is currently 35th at KenPom and SJU is currently 44th, shirley that must be a mistake.

Doesn't this kind of prove my point? We are 5-0, they are 3-2 and yet they are ranked higher.

No, I kind of think it proves my point, to the extent that I have one. Marquette has a "perfect" schedule, and they're 8 ranks, which I think translates to ~ 5 percent higher than SJU, which allegedly has the worst schedule in the history of college BB. If what you say is true SJ should be layers below Marquette.


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My entire point is that this is by far the best SJU roster since Ron Artest was named Ron Artest. If the goal and expectation for this team is to be an 9 seed and either lose in the first round or win and then get throttled by the 1 seed, then this schedule is fine. We also may as well move to the NEC as we'll never achieve anything worthwhile again if that's all we're shooting for this year. The goal for this team should be a 4-5 seed and a Sweet 16. It will be much more difficult to achieve that if you don't have any good non-conference wins.

And my entire point is that winning is better than losing. I'd rather win a bunch of games vs the top 10 than the bottom 200, but that's not what the gods have foretold. There are games scheduled, I'd ike to win them. You, evidently, wish there were games that were not scheduled that they would have lost. To the extent that I can understand that - which I cannot understand, except to the extent that you wish things were different - the only answer is they aren't. So I hope that SJ wins all the games they play and hope they don't lose any of them,

goredmen

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3651 on: November 23, 2018, 08:48:47 PM »
In my hypothetical situation I had SJU as having a better record than Marquette, yet the assumption you took from it is that Marquette is the better team.

I don’t know if Marquette is a better team than us. Maybe they are, maybe they aren’t, but if it was possible that both teams are identical with the exact same goals/expectations then Marquette is the team that set themselves up for success through scheduling over us by leaps and bounds.

It’s easy to say “well if we played that schedue and lost some games obviously that’s not as good as going undefeated” but what about the flip side of that? If we go 12-1 in OOC and 11-9 in BE maybe we are a 6 or 7 seed. But if we had Marquette’s schedule whose to say we wouldn’t go 4-2 in those 6 tough games? If we did that with a 11-9 BE we’d be a 3 or 4 seed.

Yes, a lot of assumptions and hypotheticals and I’m pretty sure I even confused myself so my apologies if none of this made sense

Marillac

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3652 on: November 23, 2018, 10:13:46 PM »
We will not miss the tournament due to SOS or any other advanced metric. We're not St. Mary's or Hofstra. It might affect our seeding.  We can miss he tournament due to a lack of wins. We weren't good last year. Marquette was close to good. It's far more likely they make the jump than us.

Marquette came a very odd blown call goon going in its favor  away from losing its third game to an unimpressive Louisville team tonight.

The mistake you make is assuming we'll be very good. We haven't even been okay yet under Mullin.

goredmen

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3653 on: November 23, 2018, 10:35:32 PM »
We will not miss the tournament due to SOS or any other advanced metric. We're not St. Mary's or Hofstra. It might affect our seeding.  We can miss he tournament due to a lack of wins. We weren't good last year. Marquette was close to good. It's far more likely they make the jump than us.

Marquette came a very odd blown call goon going in its favor  away from losing its third game to an unimpressive Louisville team tonight.

The mistake you make is assuming we'll be very good. We haven't even been okay yet under Mullin.

Perhaps this is where the main disagreement lies. I believe this team has sweet 16 level talent, and therefore I think that is the goal. I'm not assuming they'll be that good but I'm hoping they will be because they certainly can be. Making the tournament as a 8-9-10 seed and being a one and done will be an underachievement for this roster IMO.

Yes, Marquette was an odd blown call away from losing to Louisville today. We were a missed call away from losing to VCU.


Foad

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3654 on: November 24, 2018, 04:38:25 PM »
In my hypothetical situation I had SJU as having a better record than Marquette, yet the assumption you took from it is that Marquette is the better team.

The assumption I took was yours: that Marquette's schedule gives them an advantage if they don't lose games they are projected to win, which is every game they have going into the BE. Which is probably correct: if they win their three games against ranked opponents and swallow their cupcakes they have an advantage over SJ, who has only cupcakes to devour. But again, I'd rather be 12-1 than 8-5 regardless of schedule.

That said, I think that floor slapping dope Wojo is more of a mediocrity as a coach than he was as a player. He's done less with more than any BE coach except JT3, who stunk, and Willard, who stinks and no longer has the luxury of recruiting against dopey Steve Lavin, who didn't think Desi Rodriguez and Khadeen Carrington were BE players. Shades of Mike Jarhead, who thought Quincy Douby stunk.

The bottom line is (in my not a all humble opinion) that if SJ doesn't shit the bed OOC and is in the top three or four in the conference they'll get a reasonable seed in March and have the potential to make a run. If they muck up their BE schedule it doesn't matter what they did in November or against whom and if they dominate in the BE it doesn't matter either. Metrics aside, they have to beat the teams they play and get better as they do so. Everything else is masturbation. Which I'm not opposed to, I have a PhD in that.


 

Foad

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3655 on: November 24, 2018, 04:43:24 PM »
We were a missed call away from losing to VCU.

Not really a missed call: more of an uncalled call. That shot was short when it left the shooter's hand. If I'd been on the other side of it - and I've been on the other side of a bunch of bad calls going back to Reggie Carter - I'd have whined, but I'd rather the players  decide it than the referees.

Marillac

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3656 on: November 24, 2018, 05:56:07 PM »
Not really a missed call: more of an uncalled call. That shot was short when it left the shooter's hand. If I'd been on the other side of it - and I've been on the other side of a bunch of bad calls going back to Reggie Carter - I'd have whined, but I'd rather the players  decide it than the referees.

I agree and add that we could have easily lost that game several times. That only bolsters my claim that we should have avoided a more difficult schedule knowing what waits for us in the Big East. The home and home format makes it unlikely for good teams to do much better than 9-9. Even in a down year there are no gimmees.

I'm very happy the Duke game is later in the season. Marquette is a skilled and steady team. They will obviously get better like most teams but I don't see the same growth potential that we have. Nobody knows what to make of us--and for good reason.


Marillac

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3657 on: November 24, 2018, 06:01:05 PM »
Perhaps this is where the main disagreement lies. I believe this team has sweet 16 level talent, and therefore I think that is the goal. I'm not assuming they'll be that good but I'm hoping they will be because they certainly can be. Making the tournament as a 8-9-10 seed and being a one and done will be an underachievement for this roster IMO.

Yes, Marquette was an odd blown call away from losing to Louisville today. We were a missed call away from losing to VCU.



Where we disagree is on when this team will be good. You assume we will progress as the same pace as other more steady programs. I think we will get there in February--if at all.

To me, the season hinges on how willingly and soon Simon accepts his manifest destiny of playing PF.

Next, we need to adopt an unrelenting rebounding style on offense.

The cherry on top is getting 15 mpg from Keita playing close to the basket.

SJUFAN

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Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3658 on: November 24, 2018, 09:02:23 PM »
Where we disagree is on when this team will be good. You assume we will progress as the same pace as other more steady programs. I think we will get there in February--if at all.

To me, the season hinges on how willingly and soon Simon accepts his manifest destiny of playing PF.

Next, we need to adopt an unrelenting rebounding style on offense.

The cherry on top is getting 15 mpg from Keita playing close to the basket.


These areas of improvement you speak of is up to the staff to get them there by demanding they do it. What is your level of confidence the staff will be able to?

Re: Around Big East
« Reply #3659 on: November 25, 2018, 09:21:46 AM »
Everything else is masturbation. Which I'm not opposed to, I have a PhD in that.


 

I thought your degree was in mass-debating
*wipes ketchup from his eyes* - I guess Heinz sight isn’t 20/20.