Dave - Your objective opinion on reasonable expectations for the team

Dave, since it appears you have the most visibility to the team, what are reasonable expectations for this team?  Should we be excited?  Better than the 2011 team?  Tournament run?

that team had a lot of four year players and seniors and Dunlap.....and they were a work in progress until two thirds of the way through the season...I don't  think we'll really know until the same point this season...hope springs eternal...I can't wait for the real season to begin....one thing about that team is they got better week after week...you could really see the teaching and learning taking hold....the new wrinkles being put in.....

Loved that team, As much as barkelys and postells. The difference for this team should be class. Loved dj and Paris but they were top 150 players. Sean Evans was a favorite of mine. He was maybe a 1 star recuit if that. This Current team is loaded. Very highly re hired players. We better be good.

Lavin is going out on a limb with this class and he expects big things...Lavin did not do the same thing with the DJ, Horne class, so I think that speaks volumes.  Granted that was his first year but e really talking about this year. I wonder what Lavin will feel like a succesful year.

I wonder what Lavin will feel like a succesful year.

a contract extension.    It's about that time.  He's in year 4 of a 5 yr deal right?

The athletic dept has a lot of fox $ coming in over the next few years, and there will be a new president at some point soon.    So, while we all love coach Lavin, it's not like there won't be heat if the team has a disappointing season.   He needs to produce a little bit, and Im sure he realizes that. 

It's hard to predict what happens in the topsy-turvey NCAA tournament, so I prefer to base expectations on how a team could be seeded in March.  To me, it seems that we have enough depth at every position that the team should be able to withstand moderate injuries.  In addition, they are talented players who have solid experience at this point.   The team really should be able to rack up some substantial wins this year.  I think a low end of reasonable expectations is a 7 seed in the tournament.  Anything lower than a 7 seed should be deemed a big disappointment.  The high-end of reasonable expectations should be #3 seed. 

#3 seeds are hard to come by - but they are hard to come by for most any NCAA team.  Almost everything has to go right for any team to be a #3 seed.  To get high seed, we'll need better offensive sets, better three point shooting,  good point guard play and improved rebounding - along with things we already did well last year: Generally lower turnovers then opponents, a good transition game and best in NCAA shot-blocking).  That's a lot to ask for, but anything is possible.

It seems to me that between Branch and Jordan our point guard play problem should be solved.  With Sanchez, Gift and a smarter Obekpa our rebounding problem should be solved.   Hopefully the whole team's experience will lead to a better run offense (whatever half court offense that is chosen to be taught)   

To me our biggest problem will be the three-point ball.  I'm not sure that Max/Marco will get enough playing time to really move the needle for us.   We had the 341st worst three shooting percentage out of 347 teams playing D1 basketball.  That's really bad.  Can our offense be revamped enough to get better open looks?  Does Max/Marco get playing time? (I doubt it. Too many others are vying for playing time)    Can our shooting strokes be improved?   

If St. John's were just an average three point shooting team (34% three point shooting percentage is right around the middle of the whole NCAA pack, instead of our dismal 27%), we would have averaged more than 3.6 more points per game.  That alone would have vaulted us up from 229th best scoring team in country last year to around #138th.  That's a huge opportunity for improvement.   I hope the coaching staff is addressing this problem this off-season.   The three point ball is the greatest weapon in basketball.

No one can predict anything without knowing who's eligible and who's healthy. Two issues that have plagued us routinely for over 20 years.

It's hard to predict what happens in the topsy-turvey NCAA tournament, so I prefer to base expectations on how a team could be seeded in March.  To me, it seems that we have enough depth at every position that the team should be able to withstand moderate injuries.  In addition, they are talented players who have solid experience at this point.   The team really should be able to rack up some substantial wins this year.  I think a low end of reasonable expectations is a 7 seed in the tournament.  Anything lower than a 7 seed should be deemed a big disappointment.  The high-end of reasonable expectations should be #3 seed. 

#3 seeds are hard to come by - but they are hard to come by for most any NCAA team.  Almost everything has to go right for any team to be a #3 seed.  To get high seed, we'll need better offensive sets, better three point shooting,  good point guard play and improved rebounding - along with things we already did well last year: Generally lower turnovers then opponents, a good transition game and best in NCAA shot-blocking).  That's a lot to ask for, but anything is possible.

It seems to me that between Branch and Jordan our point guard play problem should be solved.  With Sanchez, Gift and a smarter Obekpa our rebounding problem should be solved.   Hopefully the whole team's experience will lead to a better run offense (whatever half court offense that is chosen to be taught)   

To me our biggest problem will be the three-point ball.  I'm not sure that Max/Marco will get enough playing time to really move the needle for us.   We had the 341st worst three shooting percentage out of 347 teams playing D1 basketball.  That's really bad.  Can our offense be revamped enough to get better open looks?  Does Max/Marco get playing time? (I doubt it. Too many others are vying for playing time)    Can our shooting strokes be improved?   

If St. John's were just an average three point shooting team (34% three point shooting percentage is right around the middle of the whole NCAA pack, instead of our dismal 27%), we would have averaged more than 3.6 more points per game.  That alone would have vaulted us up from 229th best scoring team in country last year to around #138th.  That's a huge opportunity for improvement.   I hope the coaching staff is addressing this problem this off-season.   The three point ball is the greatest weapon in basketball.

Excellent post

It's hard to predict what happens in the topsy-turvey NCAA tournament, so I prefer to base expectations on how a team could be seeded in March.  To me, it seems that we have enough depth at every position that the team should be able to withstand moderate injuries.  In addition, they are talented players who have solid experience at this point.   The team really should be able to rack up some substantial wins this year.  I think a low end of reasonable expectations is a 7 seed in the tournament.  Anything lower than a 7 seed should be deemed a big disappointment.  The high-end of reasonable expectations should be #3 seed. 

#3 seeds are hard to come by - but they are hard to come by for most any NCAA team.  Almost everything has to go right for any team to be a #3 seed.  To get high seed, we'll need better offensive sets, better three point shooting,  good point guard play and improved rebounding - along with things we already did well last year: Generally lower turnovers then opponents, a good transition game and best in NCAA shot-blocking).  That's a lot to ask for, but anything is possible.

It seems to me that between Branch and Jordan our point guard play problem should be solved.  With Sanchez, Gift and a smarter Obekpa our rebounding problem should be solved.   Hopefully the whole team's experience will lead to a better run offense (whatever half court offense that is chosen to be taught)   

To me our biggest problem will be the three-point ball.  I'm not sure that Max/Marco will get enough playing time to really move the needle for us.   We had the 341st worst three shooting percentage out of 347 teams playing D1 basketball.  That's really bad.  Can our offense be revamped enough to get better open looks?  Does Max/Marco get playing time? (I doubt it. Too many others are vying for playing time)    Can our shooting strokes be improved?   

If St. John's were just an average three point shooting team (34% three point shooting percentage is right around the middle of the whole NCAA pack, instead of our dismal 27%), we would have averaged more than 3.6 more points per game.  That alone would have vaulted us up from 229th best scoring team in country last year to around #138th.  That's a huge opportunity for improvement.   I hope the coaching staff is addressing this problem this off-season.   The three point ball is the greatest weapon in basketball.

7 seed ?!!

Anything lower than a 3 seed with this squad should be a dissapointment, and a 1 or 2 seed is what should be expected of one of the top 5 most talented teams in the nation. I think our weak out of conference schedule will keep us from a 1 seed however

Quote from: bk8664 on August 18, 2013, 11:15:01 PM

It's hard to predict what happens in the topsy-turvey NCAA tournament, so I prefer to base expectations on how a team could be seeded in March.  To me, it seems that we have enough depth at every position that the team should be able to withstand moderate injuries.  In addition, they are talented players who have solid experience at this point.   The team really should be able to rack up some substantial wins this year.  I think a low end of reasonable expectations is a 7 seed in the tournament.  Anything lower than a 7 seed should be deemed a big disappointment.  The high-end of reasonable expectations should be #3 seed. 

#3 seeds are hard to come by - but they are hard to come by for most any NCAA team.  Almost everything has to go right for any team to be a #3 seed.  To get high seed, we'll need better offensive sets, better three point shooting,  good point guard play and improved rebounding - along with things we already did well last year: Generally lower turnovers then opponents, a good transition game and best in NCAA shot-blocking).  That's a lot to ask for, but anything is possible.

It seems to me that between Branch and Jordan our point guard play problem should be solved.  With Sanchez, Gift and a smarter Obekpa our rebounding problem should be solved.   Hopefully the whole team's experience will lead to a better run offense (whatever half court offense that is chosen to be taught)   

To me our biggest problem will be the three-point ball.  I'm not sure that Max/Marco will get enough playing time to really move the needle for us.   We had the 341st worst three shooting percentage out of 347 teams playing D1 basketball.  That's really bad.  Can our offense be revamped enough to get better open looks?  Does Max/Marco get playing time? (I doubt it. Too many others are vying for playing time)    Can our shooting strokes be improved?   

If St. John's were just an average three point shooting team (34% three point shooting percentage is right around the middle of the whole NCAA pack, instead of our dismal 27%), we would have averaged more than 3.6 more points per game.  That alone would have vaulted us up from 229th best scoring team in country last year to around #138th.  That's a huge opportunity for improvement.   I hope the coaching staff is addressing this problem this off-season.   The three point ball is the greatest weapon in basketball.

7 seed ?!!

Anything lower than a 3 seed with this squad should be a dissapointment, and a 1 or 2 seed is what should be expected of one of the top 5 most talented teams in the nation. I think our weak out of conference schedule will keep us from a 1 seed however

SJU has some very talented players, but "top 5 most talented teams in the nation" they are not.  If everything goes right this year, then we are probably a Top 25 squad.

I didn't know their was so many Dave's on this site.

  I think this team has to win 2 or more games in the NCAA tourney for it to be a successful year..It's Lavin's responsibility to deliver some results with this team, all of his players were his recruits.

  He's a great recruiter, everyone acknowledges that but,can he put forth a team that is NCAA tourney contending?  He's been outcoahed in a lot of games in his 4 years here.

 A top level Coach has to be able to rally his team, when losing and make adjustments in his game plans throughout.. Those are questions still to be answered about Steve here at St John's.

...a 1 or 2 seed is what should be expected of one of the top 5 most talented teams in the nation.

Sure, but we're not one of the top 5 most talented teams.    And, I think you're putting the cart before the horse if you're already expecting a 1 or 2 seed.    Names on paper are one thing, results are another.    And there's a difference between what's possible and what's expected.   A 1 or 2 seed might be possible, but how many things would need to go right for that to happen?

Predicting tournament results is really difficult.  Goal should be make the tournament and spend a few weeks in the top 25 to continue to increase the program's national profile.  Making the second weekend in the NCAAs would be tremendous, and while I think this team has that upside, it's really hard to call sweet 16 or better an "expectation."  It might be more realistic to win the conference tournament than it is to be in the sweet 16.

Bottom line, I expect a tournament bid.

I expect us to struggle early as Lavin figures out rotations and playing time(Boards should be fun during this period). Unless you are a clear top 10 team(which we are not) it is tough to predict tourney success. NCAA bid is a must and I think we will get one. Anything more is gravy, anything less would be a disaster.

There is no question this team has the talent, depth, and experience to have a very good season. The team still needs to prove that they can close out and win close games ie. Murray St., Rutgers, Providence, Marquette, & Villanova were all losses under 5 points last season.

There is no team in the country that returns more minutes than St. John's and they gain 4 new players in GG, Sanchez, Jordan, and Hooper. It is very early to predict where this team will finish but in my Big East preview for USA Today's College Basketball Preview Magazine I had St. John's as a "bubble" team not "a lock" for tournament and I had them finishing 4th in Big East.

I predict a little better than bubble. I am going 7 seed in NCAA tourney which would puts us just outside top 25. That seems realistic to me.

I predict a little better than bubble. I am going 7 seed in NCAA tourney which would puts us just outside top 25. That seems realistic to me.

Conference strength will play a factor. 8-9 teams aren't getting in from the Big East anymore. It might only be 4 or 5.

Marquette, Georgetown, Villanova are locks

Providence and Creighton are on the bubble too.

If St. John's finishes below those 5 schools they probably aren't getting in

That is a sobering thought Dave!
Regardless if no tourney then Lavin gots some splaining to do!

I predict a little better than bubble. I am going 7 seed in NCAA tourney which would puts us just outside top 25. That seems realistic to me.

Were a bubble team last year, with Phil playing pg much of the time, with no Sanchez, with no offensive strategy and in a tougher conference. If Gift was not redshirted & Harrison not suspended, they make the tourney last season.

This coming season with a future NBA pg in Rysheed, an eligible Sanchez, a strategist in Whitesell and overall more experienced and developed, this team should spend the majority of the season ranked, and should be no lower than top-15 range when season ends.

Anything less than sweet-16 is underperforming for this team.