What are the winning lottery #s for next week?
Duke plays two Q1 or Q2 OOC based on last year's finishes and one of those is Texas Tech at home who loses nearly everyone.
Syracuse only plays one road game (forced to in ACC/Big 10 challenge) and that is their only Q1 OOC game and only OOC game against a team that finished in the top 60 in the Pomeroy rankings (which the new NET is set to more closely resemble).
We play two road games and three neutral court games against major conference opponents. Those are all losable games. Then we play the defending national champs Nova 2-3 times in conference along with a bunch of other really well run programs that are all capable of beating any team in the country.
Duke plays:
Kentucky neutral (Q1)
San Diego State neutral (Q1/Q2 border)
Auburn/Xavier neutral (Q1)
Gonzaga/Arizona/Iowa State/Illinois (Almost definitely Q1)
Indiana home (Q1/Q2 border)
Texas Tech neutral (Q2)
St John's home (Q1/Q2 border)
That's 7 Q1 + Q2 games
Syracuse:
Yukon neutral (Q2)
Iowa/Oregon neutral (Q1)
Ohio State road (Q1)
Buffalo home (Q2)
That's a weak schedule, but still not worse than ours and they definitely have 2 Q1 games.
The point is this season is supposed to be special now that Heron is eligible. The only thing we should be worried about on selection Sunday is if we get a 4 or 5 seed, not if we make it or not. Unfortunately the weak OOC schedule gives us 0 margin for error.
Temple would be the 9th best team in the Big East. Rutgers is worse than DePaul. Georgia Tech is worse than DePaul. Cal is WAY worse than DePaul. If we lose to any of those teams it would be a complete embarrassment with our roster, and how could you expect to go 10-8 in the BE if you can't sweep these crappy teams?
You are basing this all off YOUR predictions. Syracuse plays one team that finished in the KenPom top 60 last year! You assume our opponents will all be worse than last year and Cuse and Duke's will all be better and in many cases much better 🙄
You need to balance wins with quality opponents. What good does a 3-9 schedule against 12 top 15 teams? We'd miss the tournament even with an 11-8 Big East Record.
You're right. And if we go 10-2 in those first 12, we will miss the tournament if we go 10-8 in BE regular season and 1-1 in BET. 21 wins with this schedule doesn't get us in the tournament. That's my entire point. 0 margin for error in what should be a season we are hoping to be a 4 or 5 seed
You're out of your goddamn mind if you think we'd misss the tournament with 21 wins. We'd be an 8 or 9 seed. We play at least three games against top five preseason teams and two of those games are on the road. The Big East is unforgiving. You really just don't understand this topic at all. I'm done going back and forth with you. Time will prove you very wrong.
It's absolutely crazy to think a team with 21 wins gets a 9 seed with their best OOC win being Temple. Especially when the Big East will be slightly down compared to past years. We'd be a bubble team with 21 wins.
That said, there should be no way this team only wins 21 games before selection sunday this season. This team is too talented to lose to anybody but Duke in OOC and to only go 10-8 during the BE regular season.
24 wins before 3/17 should be the minimum goal this year. 12-1 OOC, 11-7 BE regular season, 1 BET win. That's about right for this talent level
You're the only person on the planet that would dismiss a road win over Rutgers and neutral court wins over Temple, Cal, AND Ga Tech as nothing. Even in down years those high major games away from Home can result in a loss for any tournament team. We proved that last year beating Duke (and then Nova a few days later) after stating something like 0-7 in conference.
We play at least 24 games against high major opponents and only NINE of those games are at home.
24+ wins would be quite an accomplishment. I see the potential for sure but I'm not as optimistic as you unless the staff as tweaked some fundamental philosophies (zone defense, gang rebounding, etc.). My best guess is this team is slightly better than the the DJ Kennedy senior year squad. They can only win a few in March if they attack the offensive glass relentlessly. If they do that, there is no team that can beat them soundly.