Outside of top 4 seeds I'm never overly surprised by any upset. Look at bracketology today. BE seeds: #1-Cuse, #3 Marquette and G Town, #4 Ville, #6 UND, #10 Cincy, #11 Hall, UConn, #12-WVU.
Again, they're deep but not necessarily top heavy and really that was the case last year as well but the pollsters and the bracket formers didn't know it, I am an uber-positive STJ fan but . So no, I wouldn't be shocked if even Louisville and certainly any team below them loses but nor would I be surprised if Cincy and any team below them that actually makes it in the end wins a game or two. And they're not supposed to given their seeding. I will say that Ville is the team I'd be most surprised to see lose of the 4 seeds in today's bracketology, others being FSU, Indiana and Wisconsin, in fact I'll go so far as to predict that the Big 10 will be the conference with the highest seeds leaving the earliest this year.
Last year 9 of the 10 teams in from the BE were top 6 seeds or better, though as I said before that was a bit of smoke and mirrors by the conference PR department. So yes last year was surprising. This year it won't be so much.