Nobody knows with the NET. It seems to punish teams for losing to quality opponents and reward teams for destroying bad teams.
Remember when you laughed at me for saying I'd rather be 3-2 with Marquette's schedule than 5-0 with ours, and you pointed to the NET as proof that you were right about the schedule not being weak? Who is ahead of who in the NET these days? Spoiler, it's the team with 2 losses, not the undefeated team.
Ironically, it looks like we will be hurt by playing an overall schedule that is perhaps too strong.
My guess for 22-11 would be a ten seed.
So our schedule is too strong, but we'll only get a 10 seed with 22 wins. Sure, that makes sense.
22 wins in a good conference with a not-weak OOC schedule is usually slightly better than a 10 seed, but one of those things doesn't apply to us this year so I agree with your assessment of where we'd end up with 22 wins.
Another question - is this roster better or worse than a typical 10 seed in your opinion?