While I see your point - and agree, I wouldn't have thought the team would be doing much better than this - the Providence loss really was a indicator that this team doesn't have it together. The post game quotes, as well, are concerning.
I think the team could be doing better than they are. But the two road games are tough games. If the team finishes January with just one loss (requiring an upset at either Pitt or U Conn and a win at home against 'Nova), the team is on a decent track, 4-4 in the league. With the exception of @Syracuse and maybe @Notre Dame, they have a chance in the rest of the games if they keep their heads about them and play smart ball.
My gut says there are too many exploitable flaws for them to make that kind of run. But logically, if everyone remains healthy and knows their roles, they could still surprise.