Realistisc Expectations This Season

Quote from: Marillac on September 20, 2012, 11:38:27 PM

I'm going to nearly double my prediction of 13 from last year.  I feel very confident this teams wins 23 and at least one NCAA tournament game. 

20 PPG from Harrison
Amir Garrett will be the most improved player on the roster with Greene right there with him--I expect both to be fantastic
Obekpa will give us very little as a frosh outside of a few games where he looks like the best defensive player we've ever had
I'm not at all on the Christian Jones love train, and I see him as a slightly better Sean Evans (still VERY glad to have him and some beef down low)
I think this season hinges on how good two players are:  Jamal Branch and Marco Bourgault 
I think Sanchez will lead this team in rebounds (guessing around 7-8 points 8 boards and 2.2 blocks), and I think he can enjoy more success at the D-1 than he did at the JUCO level

I think 2013-2014 is when this team really clicks, but if Branch is legit (I have my doubts), Marco is as good as I believe and our new bigs pick things up quickly, this can be a VERY dangerous team this season. 

It should be an exciting season, and the first for little Marillac who is due right around Midnight Madness.

What makes you have doubts about Branch?

Nothing concrete. I just remembered him being really good when I saw him play us, but  after watching the game again (thanks to whoever provided the link), he has some areas he can improve in for sure.  What freshman doesn't, though, right?  The biggest jump many players make in college is from the frosh to soph year. 

Quote from: redmen4life on September 15, 2012, 02:17:22 PM

Quote from: jumpinjohnny on September 15, 2012, 01:33:42 PM

Quote from: redmen4life on September 15, 2012, 01:09:48 PM

Quote from: ras on September 15, 2012, 12:58:01 PM

Quote from: redmen4life on September 15, 2012, 12:50:20 PM

I think 8 will get the bulk of the minutes.  And i think Harrison, Sanchez, and Amir carry the scoring load.  so the question is, can we win consistently with those 8 guys?

Harrison
Sanchez
Amir
Greene
Branch
Obekpa
Gift
Marco

This sounds like a 17-13 team to me.

You forgot another important piece, Sampson.

You're right:

Harrison
Sanchez
Amir
Sampson
Greene
Branch
Obekpa
Marco

still think with sampson we are a 17-13 team.

What if you add Pointer to the mix?

i think dom is a great athlete. but i honestly don't see him making much of an impact. he'll play, but not the kind of minutes the 8 above will. i think the 8 core guys give us the best balance of defense and offense. obviously depth plays a role, but that's only if all the guys on the team can contribute and not be a liability (turnovers, no offense, lack of d, etc)

the title of this thread is "Realistic Expectations".  I think mine are pretty "realistic".  Now if i put my optimistic / emotional hat on, i'd say we can squeeze out 20 wins.

Pointer was impactful last year averaging 6.5pts 4.7 rebs and 1.6 steals per game as a freshman.  If he improves those numbers even marginally, he's a 9/6 guy and that is quite impactful.  In addition,mic you watched Pointer last year, you saw a kid that while raw, changed a lot of games with defense and creating turnovers.  I think his offense and hopefully shooting will improve.  That goes for all of our players.  Pretty sure Dom and the staff know his major weaknesses.  I'd never count a warrior like Pointer out of anything.  That kid is a gamer and a big reason I think we can be so good over next few years.  When he learns to runs out his game, watch out.  He doesn't take plays off.

Totally agree re Dom. He's a sensational defender and will see a ton of crunch time minutes.  He didn't force things last year and I look for him to get more aggressive on offense and up his numbers.  He gets my vote for most improved and should team up with Greene in stepping things up when needed. 

Assuming Gift, Sanchez, Sampson, Harrison, and Branch start at the beginning of Big East play, the second team will be amazing with Obekpa, Garrett, Pointer, Marco and Greene with only Jones and Felix possibly out of regular rotation.

I do expect Garrett to start though with either Jakarr or Gift off bench. I think Gift will be given every opportunity to start from day 1 

Quote from: ras on September 21, 2012, 10:04:35 AM

Quote from: Marillac on September 20, 2012, 11:38:27 PM

I'm going to nearly double my prediction of 13 from last year.  I feel very confident this teams wins 23 and at least one NCAA tournament game. 

20 PPG from Harrison
Amir Garrett will be the most improved player on the roster with Greene right there with him--I expect both to be fantastic
Obekpa will give us very little as a frosh outside of a few games where he looks like the best defensive player we've ever had
I'm not at all on the Christian Jones love train, and I see him as a slightly better Sean Evans (still VERY glad to have him and some beef down low)
I think this season hinges on how good two players are:  Jamal Branch and Marco Bourgault 
I think Sanchez will lead this team in rebounds (guessing around 7-8 points 8 boards and 2.2 blocks), and I think he can enjoy more success at the D-1 than he did at the JUCO level

I think 2013-2014 is when this team really clicks, but if Branch is legit (I have my doubts), Marco is as good as I believe and our new bigs pick things up quickly, this can be a VERY dangerous team this season. 

It should be an exciting season, and the first for little Marillac who is due right around Midnight Madness.

What makes you have doubts about Branch?

Nothing concrete. I just remembered him being really good when I saw him play us, but  after watching the game again (thanks to whoever provided the link), he has some areas he can improve in for sure.  What freshman doesn't, though, right?  The biggest jump many players make in college is from the frosh to soph year.

Evaluating him on 1 game, the first semester of his FR. year, does not tell much. What makes you so high on Greene? I think Branch starts over Greene , was higher ranked and is a true PG. But I could be wrong.

Assuming Gift, Sanchez, Sampson, Harrison, and Branch start at the beginning of Big East play, the second team will be amazing with Obekpa, Garrett, Pointer, Marco and Greene with only Jones and Felix possibly out of regular rotation.

I do expect Garrett to start though with either Jakarr or Gift off bench. I think Gift will be given every opportunity to start from day 1

Your starting lineup has nice size. I think Gift doesnt start and Sampson does.

Assuming Gift, Sanchez, Sampson, Harrison, and Branch start at the beginning of Big East play, the second team will be amazing with Obekpa, Garrett, Pointer, Marco and Greene with only Jones and Felix possibly out of regular rotation.

I do expect Garrett to start though with either Jakarr or Gift off bench. I think Gift will be given every opportunity to start from day 1

There is NO WAY Sampson doesnt start every game, if he is healthy.

Starting 5 to begin season will be: Branch, Harrison, Garrett, Sampson, Gift.

The only big uncertainty among that five is Godsgift. Sanchez could possibly take the starting spot earlier than expected.

And the fact that branch isn't eligible till December might make it hard to start him.

I would be very surprised if Gift was a starter.   Not because I dislike him, far from it... he seems like a great student-athlete, and a good representative of the school.
But Gift was playing half a game or less down the stretch last year... and that was when we had a roster of 6.   
Seems to me the staff sees him as a role player.   Granted he did play 28mins the last two games, but that was after Moe hurt himself against Pitt.   

I just think the staff sees him as a defensive liability (and probably rightfully so).  He'll get rotation minutes, but I'd be surprised if he started. 

But it's not all about Gift.  A big part of it is that we have guys with skill now who's hard work is going to demand minutes. 

I would be very surprised if Gift was a starter.   Not because I dislike him, far from it... he seems like a great student-athlete, and a good representative of the school.
But Gift was playing half a game or less down the stretch last year... and that was when we had a roster of 6.   
Seems to me the staff sees him as a role player.   Granted he did play 28mins the last two games, but that was after Moe hurt himself against Pitt.   

I just think the staff sees him as a defensive liability (and probably rightfully so).  He'll get rotation minutes, but I'd be surprised if he started. 

But it's not all about Gift.  A big part of it is that we have guys with skill now who's hard work is going to demand minutes.

Gift might start just because he is a senior and has experience in the post.  Do I think he'll be starting all season?  No.  Don't write him off though.  He's a strong forward with really nice athleiticism and some ability.  We are just so deep and talented that he's likely to get squeezed down the roster a bit. 

Remember the out of conference games when Double G was playing like the Big E? 

He was looking all-world before the BE games.

I would be very surprised if Gift was a starter.   Not because I dislike him, far from it... he seems like a great student-athlete, and a good representative of the school.
But Gift was playing half a game or less down the stretch last year... and that was when we had a roster of 6.   
Seems to me the staff sees him as a role player.   Granted he did play 28mins the last two games, but that was after Moe hurt himself against Pitt.   

I just think the staff sees him as a defensive liability (and probably rightfully so).  He'll get rotation minutes, but I'd be surprised if he started. 

But it's not all about Gift.  A big part of it is that we have guys with skill now who's hard work is going to demand minutes.

Coach Lavin started Sean Farnham over Dan Gadzuric once upon a time.   "Start" doesn't matter all that much.  "Finish" does....

Quote from: desco80 on September 21, 2012, 04:57:05 PM

I would be very surprised if Gift was a starter.   Not because I dislike him, far from it... he seems like a great student-athlete, and a good representative of the school.
But Gift was playing half a game or less down the stretch last year... and that was when we had a roster of 6.   
Seems to me the staff sees him as a role player.   Granted he did play 28mins the last two games, but that was after Moe hurt himself against Pitt.   

I just think the staff sees him as a defensive liability (and probably rightfully so).  He'll get rotation minutes, but I'd be surprised if he started. 

But it's not all about Gift.  A big part of it is that we have guys with skill now who's hard work is going to demand minutes.

Gift might start just because he is a senior and has experience in the post.  Do I think he'll be starting all season?  No.  Don't write him off though.  He's a strong forward with really nice athleiticism and some ability.  We are just so deep and talented that he's likely to get squeezed down the roster a bit.

I agree.   To start the year I could see him being a starter in name; and getting big minutes if the staff feels Chris or Jakaar are having trouble learning the zone.  Or something like that.
It'll be interesting because we open up with some tough opponents right out of the gate.   And for that reason he might get a start here or there.

But long term, I just think the staff sees a lot of holes.   Because really, there were opportunities to play him BIG minutes last year.   And they decided to play undersized freshmen instead, for the most part. 
That says a lot about their mindset.

Quote from: MCNPA on September 21, 2012, 07:53:01 PM

Quote from: desco80 on September 21, 2012, 04:57:05 PM

I would be very surprised if Gift was a starter.   Not because I dislike him, far from it... he seems like a great student-athlete, and a good representative of the school.
But Gift was playing half a game or less down the stretch last year... and that was when we had a roster of 6.   
Seems to me the staff sees him as a role player.   Granted he did play 28mins the last two games, but that was after Moe hurt himself against Pitt.   

I just think the staff sees him as a defensive liability (and probably rightfully so).  He'll get rotation minutes, but I'd be surprised if he started. 

But it's not all about Gift.  A big part of it is that we have guys with skill now who's hard work is going to demand minutes.

Gift might start just because he is a senior and has experience in the post.  Do I think he'll be starting all season?  No.  Don't write him off though.  He's a strong forward with really nice athleiticism and some ability.  We are just so deep and talented that he's likely to get squeezed down the roster a bit.

I agree.   To start the year I could see him being a starter in name; and getting big minutes if the staff feels Chris or Jakaar are having trouble learning the zone.  Or something like that.
It'll be interesting because we open up with some tough opponents right out of the gate.   And for that reason he might get a start here or there.

But long term, I just think the staff sees a lot of holes.   Because really, there were opportunities to play him BIG minutes last year.   And they decided to play undersized freshmen instead, for the most part. 
That says a lot about their mindset.

Uh, Gift played 30 minutes a game.

I'm going to nearly double my prediction of 13 from last year.  I feel very confident this teams wins 23 and at least one NCAA tournament game. 

20 PPG from Harrison
Amir Garrett will be the most improved player on the roster with Greene right there with him--I expect both to be fantastic
Obekpa will give us very little as a frosh outside of a few games where he looks like the best defensive player we've ever had
I'm not at all on the Christian Jones love train, and I see him as a slightly better Sean Evans (still VERY glad to have him and some beef down low)
I think this season hinges on how good two players are:  Jamal Branch and Marco Bourgault 
I think Sanchez will lead this team in rebounds (guessing around 7-8 points 8 boards and 2.2 blocks), and I think he can enjoy more success at the D-1 than he did at the JUCO level

I think 2013-2014 is when this team really clicks, but if Branch is legit (I have my doubts), Marco is as good as I believe and our new bigs pick things up quickly, this can be a VERY dangerous team this season. 

It should be an exciting season, and the first for little Marillac who is due right around Midnight Madness.

Solid analysis but I'll say this.  It seems youre down on Obekpa but I think you're wrong about him.  He'll be a stud before all is said an done.  He's got a great motor and a much better athlete than I originally thought. He takes pride in defense and not many big guys really do that.  I've heard the kid is a very, very hard worker.  I think he'll be a fixture by mid season in the post for us and really have some big games, with emphasis on defense. 

It should be an exciting season, and the first for little Marillac who is due right around Midnight Madness.

Congrats to you and Mrs. Marillac!  Good job!  The world needs more Johnny fans.

Quote from: desco80 on September 21, 2012, 08:43:50 PM

But long term, I just think the staff sees a lot of holes.   Because really, there were opportunities to play him BIG minutes last year.   And they decided to play undersized freshmen instead, for the most part. 
That says a lot about their mindset.

Uh, Gift  played 30 minutes a game.

Er, in November and December God's Gift to Division III played these kinds of minutes: 38, 38,38,40,38, 36 36. When Garrett was eligible (eg in February) he played this kind: 18, 26, 24, 24,24, 18, 12.

It's just like something that happened at UCLA 50 years ago when one UCLA player played more than another UCLA player until the second UCLA player played more than the first UCLA player because Steve decided the first UCLA player needed to play less minutes vis a vis the second UCLA player and so implemented a plan whereby the second UCLA player played more than the first UCLA player but despite playing less and playing more both went on to long careers in the NBA pwhere they played less than some players and more than others. Those players names incidentally? UCLA player number one and UCLA player number two.

Quote from: crgreen on September 22, 2012, 12:10:04 AM

Quote from: desco80 on September 21, 2012, 08:43:50 PM

But long term, I just think the staff sees a lot of holes.   Because really, there were opportunities to play him BIG minutes last year.   And they decided to play undersized freshmen instead, for the most part. 
That says a lot about their mindset.

Uh, Gift  played 30 minutes a game.

Er, in November and December God's Gift to Division III played these kinds of minutes: 38, 38,38,40,38, 36 36. When Garrett was eligible (eg in February) he played this kind: 18, 26, 24, 24,24, 18, 12.

It's just like something that happened at UCLA 50 years ago when one UCLA player played more than another UCLA player until the second UCLA player played more than the first UCLA player because Steve decided the first UCLA player needed to play less minutes vis a vis the second UCLA player and so implemented a plan whereby the second UCLA player played more than the first UCLA player but despite playing less and playing more both went on to long careers in the NBA pwhere they played less than some players and more than others. Those players names incidentally? UCLA player number one and UCLA player number two.

Cute, and I assume you're missleading to go for the joke, because while irritating, you're not ignorant.  Trouble is, some newbies might believe the joke.  But those that watched the games last year know that Gift finshed out the season with 28 minutes at Pitt (and 17pts), 29 against Rutgers (12 pts), and 30 against Pitt (12 rebs)....

Amir became eligible December 21st, NOT February.    In games where Amir was eligible,  Gift played 27.8 minute a game.   That means Amir's impact on Gifts minutes was.....2 whole minutes a game.   But then, you actually KNEW that, didn't you?

BTW, just so you feel complete with a UCLA reference, even at the reduced 27.8 minutes per game (not the 29.9 he actually accrued for the season, that was still the most minutes per game ANY Steve Lavin center has ever played - be it Jelani McCoy, Travis Reed, Dan Gadzuric, Jerome Moiso, Mike Fey, Ryan Hollins...8 year NBA center McCoy had that distinction at 26.4 in Steve's first season as head coach (his Elite 8 team in 1997) until Gift's season last year.

 My two favorite posters (for very different reasons), crgreen and Foad/fun.  I hope this battle never ends. 

Cute, and I assume you're missleading to go for the joke, because while irritating, you're not ignorant.  Trouble is, some newbies might believe the joke.  But those that watched the games last year know that Gift finshed out the season with 28 minutes at Pitt (and 17pts), 29 against Rutgers (12 pts), and 30 against Pitt (12 rebs)....

SJ had all of six players last year. Someone had to get minutes. I suppose we could have gone the Hoosiers route and played four: My team is on the floor.

Despite which at years end Garrett got

27 (fouled out), 29, 39, 38, 37, 37, 32, 31 (fouled out) = 33 MPG

Gazunheit got

18, 26, 24, 24, 24, 18, 12, 28, 29, 30 = 23 MPG

And he only got those last three bumps because of injuries and foul trouble. Meaning either GG played center or Jamal White.

Amir became eligible December 21st, NOT February. 

Besides being exquisitely irritating I'm a very careful writer. That's why I said "was eligible" not "became eligible." When Garrett became eligible he played 15, 15, 16, 22, 18. The more he got up to speed the more he played. Which made sense, because he's more skilled than the rest of them, other than DH and MH.

  In games where Amir was eligible,  Gift played 27.8 minute a game.   That means Amir's impact on Gifts minutes was.....2 whole minutes a game.   But then, you actually KNEW that, didn't you?

Yes and I read how to lie with statistics as well. GG amassed minutes and stats against the DIII teams we played in December. After that he was pretty much the best 6th man on a six man team.

BTW, just so you feel complete with a UCLA reference, even at the reduced 27.8 minutes per game (not the 29.9 he actually accrued for the season, that was still the most minutes per game ANY Steve Lavin center has ever played - be it Jelani McCoy, Travis Reed, Dan Gadzuric, Jerome Moiso, Mike Fey, Ryan Hollins...8 year NBA center McCoy had that distinction at 26.4 in Steve's first season as head coach (his Elite 8 team in 1997) until Gift's season last year.

Are you attempting to make a meaningful comparison between the minutes played by the loaded rosters TGAPL amassed while riding on Wooden's coattails and last year's version of the Wonder Five? I hope not.

Are you attempting to make a meaningful comparison between the minutes played by the loaded rosters TGAPL amassed while riding on Wooden's coattails and last year's version of the Wonder Five? I hope not.

Again, for any newbies that don't get your Fox News approach:   "Riging Woodens Coattails" -  Wooden retired in 1975.   Lavin became a head coach in 1997.   Twenty-two year long coattail.    I guess in your parlance, Steve's riding Looie's coattails, no?  THAT's only been 20 years.