Moose -- how about Jay Wright and the Nova situation. I believe his first year he inherited a mediocre team and they stayed mediocre. Secured a top class with Frazier, Ray, Sumpter, Foye, etc. Had two more mediocre seasons (NIT in each, I believe). Then had a really good year when that crew were juniors, went to the dance as like a #5 or #6 seed, and came into the next year (when those guys were seniors) as a top team.
Our situation is different because Lavs had a great year in the 2010-2011 with the seniors, and then all of the issues we had last year with the ineligible players, his personal health issues, etc. Also not saying we are on track by any stretch to make a leap if everyone comes back. But agree with you that by year #4 their needs to be substantial progress. And the calls for an X's and O's guy are becoming more apparent, because as you appropriately said, we certainly have a talented roster when you look at rankings (although your point about needing to recruit guys who compliment each other is well taken).