Bubble

ON Paper, the Villanova game was not a bad loss, but the reality is that if Amir doesn't foul a player shooting a three, we win that game. 

Quote from: kingofk1ngs on February 21, 2013, 12:14:57 PM

@STJ_Basketball
Post BE Tourney, a team w/ our profile has an 80 pct chance w/ 17 wins, 85 pct w/ 18, 91 pct chance w/ 19

Wait...An 80% chance of the tourney with 17 wins? That doesn't seem right.

Maybe if we only played 25 games.

ON Paper, the Villanova game was not a bad loss, but the reality is that if Amir doesn't foul a player shooting a three, we win that game. 

There are tons of things to pinpoint if you want after that game.  Not solely Amir.  How about any missed FT for starters.

Quote from: kingofk1ngs on February 21, 2013, 12:14:57 PM

@STJ_Basketball
Post BE Tourney, a team w/ our profile has an 80 pct chance w/ 17 wins, 85 pct w/ 18, 91 pct chance w/ 19

Wait...An 80% chance of the tourney with 17 wins? That doesn't seem right.

Guessing he is referring to BE teams as there has been a lot of tweets about scenarios about BE teams in the last few days from STJ.

Quote from: Beamer04 on February 21, 2013, 12:22:54 PM

ON Paper, the Villanova game was not a bad loss, but the reality is that if Amir doesn't foul a player shooting a three, we win that game. 

There are tons of things to pinpoint if you want after that game.  Not solely Amir.  How about any missed FT for starters.

I blame the Aggie's mentally challenged technical for the loss and always will.

Quote from: Moose on February 21, 2013, 12:27:47 PM

Quote from: Beamer04 on February 21, 2013, 12:22:54 PM

ON Paper, the Villanova game was not a bad loss, but the reality is that if Amir doesn't foul a player shooting a three, we win that game. 

There are tons of things to pinpoint if you want after that game.  Not solely Amir.  How about any missed FT for starters.

I blame the Aggie's mentally challenged technical for the loss and always will.

Of course you would

I'm sure I can find 3 reasons we lost the game from someone else's night

There hasn't been an 18 win (or less) At-Large Bid since 2008.  Most years there are one or two 19 win At-Large Bids.   I think this team needs at least 20 wins, and I would say that even that wouldn't be a lock with some of the bad losses and lack of quality road wins.

In 2009-2010 Virginia Tech was 23-8 (10-6), and didn't get in.  What would you say if StJ finished with that record and didn't get in?

There hasn't been an 18 win (or less) At-Large Bid since 2008.  Most years there are one or two 19 win At-Large Bids.   I think this team needs at least 20 wins, and I would say that even that wouldn't be a lock with some of the bad losses and lack of quality road wins.

In 2009-2010 Virginia Tech was 23-8 (10-6), and didn't get in.  What would you say if StJ finished with that record and didn't get in?

Va Tech had like an OOC SOS of like 300 something.  They made their bed by not playing anyone multiple years under Seth.

There hasn't been an 18 win (or less) At-Large Bid since 2008.  Most years there are one or two 19 win At-Large Bids.   I think this team needs at least 20 wins, and I would say that even that wouldn't be a lock with some of the bad losses and lack of quality road wins.

In 2009-2010 Virginia Tech was 23-8 (10-6), and didn't get in.  What would you say if StJ finished with that record and didn't get in?

They lost to awful Miami team in the first round of the ACC tourny. Having played one of the weakest OOC schedules in the country, that loss gave the committee what they needed to leave them out. 

Quote from: dR3w on February 21, 2013, 02:02:21 PM

There hasn't been an 18 win (or less) At-Large Bid since 2008.  Most years there are one or two 19 win At-Large Bids.   I think this team needs at least 20 wins, and I would say that even that wouldn't be a lock with some of the bad losses and lack of quality road wins.

In 2009-2010 Virginia Tech was 23-8 (10-6), and didn't get in.  What would you say if StJ finished with that record and didn't get in?

Va Tech had like an OOC SOS of like 300 something.  They made their bed by not playing anyone multiple years under Seth.

I agree that their SOS was bad, even their RPI, but they were 3rd in the ACC, and the ACC teams that finished 4th -7th made the tourney including a 7-9 Georgia Tech.  Considering their ACC record, and winning more games closer to March, I think they had a strong argument.    They also beat every one of those non-conference foes with the exception of Temple who had a very good year 29-5 (14-2).  To me just because that SOS was weak, that doesn't mean they didn't win when they were supposed to, and subsequently deserved to get into the tourney. 

When you are on the bubble, the committee or "experts" can always throw in some factor as to why that team did or didn't get in.  St John's hasn't really beaten anyone that is very good.  Even ND and Cinci are not the cream of the Big East, even if they were ranked at the time.  I think it is going to take a major run for St John's to get in the tourney. 

Quote from: Moose on February 21, 2013, 02:08:33 PM

Quote from: dR3w on February 21, 2013, 02:02:21 PM

There hasn't been an 18 win (or less) At-Large Bid since 2008.  Most years there are one or two 19 win At-Large Bids.   I think this team needs at least 20 wins, and I would say that even that wouldn't be a lock with some of the bad losses and lack of quality road wins.

In 2009-2010 Virginia Tech was 23-8 (10-6), and didn't get in.  What would you say if StJ finished with that record and didn't get in?

Va Tech had like an OOC SOS of like 300 something.  They made their bed by not playing anyone multiple years under Seth.

I agree that their SOS was bad, even their RPI, but they were 3rd in the ACC, and the ACC teams that finished 4th -7th made the tourney including a 7-9 Georgia Tech.  Considering their ACC record, and winning more games closer to March, I think they had a strong argument.    They also beat every one of those non-conference foes with the exception of Temple who had a very good year 29-5 (14-2).  To me just because that SOS was weak, that doesn't mean they didn't win when they were supposed to, and subsequently deserved to get into the tourney. 

When you are on the bubble, the committee or "experts" can always throw in some factor as to why that team did or didn't get in.  St John's hasn't really beaten anyone that is very good.  Even ND and Cinci are not the cream of the Big East, even if they were ranked at the time.  I think it is going to take a major run for St John's to get in the tourney. 

I think we win some combo of 4 games (including BET) we are solid in.  Different iterations short of that.

As I said in another thread the factor you have to remember are besides RPI and SOS, last 10 games, road and neutral court.  Teams might rake it up at home but suck on the road or neutral and thats where you tourney games will be.  And a hot team off a conf tournament will always get more love.  Its what have you done for me lately, not what you did in December.

Quote from: dR3w on February 21, 2013, 02:02:21 PM

There hasn't been an 18 win (or less) At-Large Bid since 2008.  Most years there are one or two 19 win At-Large Bids.   I think this team needs at least 20 wins, and I would say that even that wouldn't be a lock with some of the bad losses and lack of quality road wins.

In 2009-2010 Virginia Tech was 23-8 (10-6), and didn't get in.  What would you say if StJ finished with that record and didn't get in?

They lost to awful Miami team in the first round of the ACC tourny. Having played one of the weakest OOC schedules in the country, that loss gave the committee what they needed to leave them out. 

Well with that reasoning (One bad loss is indicative of whether you should play in the tourney or not), then the loss to SF and even UNCA should tell the committee all they need to know about St Johns ... right?  It is "the body of work" that matters.

Being a fan of as bubble team is such a unique feeling.  It's not like watching baseball or football down the stretch and you know if you win more games than another team you make the playoffs.  I'm not sure if I like it or not.  I thought the season was over after the Asheville loss so my heartbreak with this team is already out of the way.  With that being said I think winning 2 out of 4 remaining games and 1 Big East tournament game is very attainable.  The Big East tournament game will be against probably Villanova or Cincy though so we really need to try to get the 7 seed to avoid a tough first round game.

Don't look at any numbers or facts.  Gut reaction.  In or Out.

Cuse
Gtown
Marquette
Lville
ND
Pitt
Nova
STJ
Cincy

SJU and Cincy out.

Thing that makes this all interesting is I can realistically see STJ and Villanova play each other from the get go in the BE Tourney and I think that the game will be make or break for BOTH teams to make the tourney(More so for STJ than Nova) since the game is "Technically" a neutral site game and all.

I'd love to get Nova right off the bat. We'd get them at this moment in the 8/9 matchup and if we win that game to go along with beating PIT/PROV or MQ/PROV, I think we get in the play in game. Beat PIT/PROV/MQ/Nova and I think we might get the 4th 11 seed(AKA play in the No.1 overall team's bracket) if everything breaks right.

Getting a shot at Nova is big though in the BE tourney....you don't win that, you don't deserve to be in.

Quote from: jr49 on February 21, 2013, 02:21:41 PM

Quote from: dR3w on February 21, 2013, 02:02:21 PM

There hasn't been an 18 win (or less) At-Large Bid since 2008.  Most years there are one or two 19 win At-Large Bids.   I think this team needs at least 20 wins, and I would say that even that wouldn't be a lock with some of the bad losses and lack of quality road wins.

In 2009-2010 Virginia Tech was 23-8 (10-6), and didn't get in.  What would you say if StJ finished with that record and didn't get in?

They lost to awful Miami team in the first round of the ACC tourny. Having played one of the weakest OOC schedules in the country, that loss gave the committee what they needed to leave them out. 

Well with that reasoning (One bad loss is indicative of whether you should play in the tourney or not), then the loss to SF and even UNCA should tell the committee all they need to know about St Johns ... right?  It is "the body of work" that matters.

Well yeah and that's what was stated.  They had no body of work.  They played no one out of conference, had an RPI of 58 and were 1-3 against ranked opponents.   By comparison G Tech had 4 wins against ranked teams and got to the conference final that year.

Thing that makes this all interesting is I can realistically see STJ and Villanova play each other from the get go in the BE Tourney and I think that the game will be make or break for BOTH teams to make the tourney(More so for STJ than Nova) since the game is "Technically" a neutral site game and all.

I'd love to get Nova right off the bat. We'd get them at this moment in the 8/9 matchup and if we win that game to go along with beating PIT/PROV or MQ/PROV, I think we get in the play in game. Beat PIT/PROV/MQ/Nova and I think we might get the 4th 11 seed(AKA play in the No.1 overall team's bracket) if everything breaks right.

Getting a shot at Nova is big though in the BE tourney....you don't win that, you don't deserve to be in.

If we beat Pitt, Providence and Nova in the Big East Tournament I think we will avoid the play-in game.  Our resume would be too strong.

Quote from: Blindsided on February 21, 2013, 03:04:58 PM

Thing that makes this all interesting is I can realistically see STJ and Villanova play each other from the get go in the BE Tourney and I think that the game will be make or break for BOTH teams to make the tourney(More so for STJ than Nova) since the game is "Technically" a neutral site game and all.

I'd love to get Nova right off the bat. We'd get them at this moment in the 8/9 matchup and if we win that game to go along with beating PIT/PROV or MQ/PROV, I think we get in the play in game. Beat PIT/PROV/MQ/Nova and I think we might get the 4th 11 seed(AKA play in the No.1 overall team's bracket) if everything breaks right.

Getting a shot at Nova is big though in the BE tourney....you don't win that, you don't deserve to be in.

If we beat Pitt, Providence and Nova in the Big East Tournament I think we will avoid the play-in game.  Our resume would be too strong.

In most years, we'd still be out but this has been such a crazy year where no team has shown they can rally off a bunch of wins together so I think everything broke right...so far. We need to take care of business however.

No UConn is huge...as UConn would be the team that'd take our spot ahead of us(Despite us beating them).

Pitt and Cincy are trending downward....Would take a UConn win over Cincy(We beat both) since it'd really hurt the Bearcats and possibly set them up to get caught on the outside looking in.

Don't look at any numbers or facts.  Gut reaction.  In or Out.

Cuse
Gtown
Marquette
Lville
ND
Pitt
Nova
STJ
Cincy

Off the top of my head, I'd say  Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Pittsburgh are locks.
Us and Villanova are on the bubble, but Nova has to have the edge because they've beaten Louisville and Syracuse.  So if all else is equal... thats a huge feather in their hat.

Cincinnati I have no idea about.   I know they're in the mix and were ranked earlier in the season.. but I don't know what they've done recently.