Bracketology thread

The AD gets bashed on here plenty . Most of us don't know what he does or doesn't do. Have to think that it's his fault for not demanding that we play a division 1 team. Why play a game if a loss would hurt and a win wouldn't count?

The NIT screwed up by not getting enough teams in their tournament.
Nothing to do with Monasch.

Our RPI on ESPN is 41 but on the NCAA website we are 51. Obviously the NCAA will be the one used to judge us but why such a large difference?

It appears ESPN is counting our preseason NIT games as neutral court games but NCAA is counting them as home games.

Need to beat Georgetown and Villanova

Need to beat Georgetown and Villanova

That's not true, but would definitely help.  Need to win 4 of the last 7, then win a game in the BET.  One scenario that would work, for example, is beating Xavier twice, @MU, v. SH.  In my view, 10-8 is bordering on unrealistic.

Separately, Xavier is the worst matchup for us IMO.  I'd take a split with X and Gtown and taking care of business against SH and MU.

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 13, 2015, 06:36:52 PM

Need to beat Georgetown and Villanova

That's not true, but would definitely help.  Need to win 4 of the last 7, then win a game in the BET.  One scenario that would work, for example, is beating Xavier twice, @MU, v. SH.  In my view, 10-8 is bordering on unrealistic.

Separately, Xavier is the worst matchup for us IMO.  I'd take a split with X and Gtown and taking care of business against SH and MU.

I look at at like this, we are on the bubble now. How does beating Xavier, Seton Hall and Marquette help us?

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 13, 2015, 06:40:50 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 13, 2015, 06:36:52 PM

Need to beat Georgetown and Villanova

That's not true, but would definitely help.  Need to win 4 of the last 7, then win a game in the BET.  One scenario that would work, for example, is beating Xavier twice, @MU, v. SH.  In my view, 10-8 is bordering on unrealistic.

Separately, Xavier is the worst matchup for us IMO.  I'd take a split with X and Gtown and taking care of business against SH and MU.

I look at at like this, we are on the bubble now. How does beating Xavier, Seton Hall and Marquette help us?

The way I look at it, most places have us in the tourney now, win the games you should and that shouldn't change barring some insane Cinderella stories come conference tourney time. It's not ideal, but in most cases the probability will work.

Win some we aren't supposed to like @GT or @Nova and its icing on the cake.

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 13, 2015, 06:44:47 PM

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 13, 2015, 06:40:50 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 13, 2015, 06:36:52 PM

Need to beat Georgetown and Villanova

That's not true, but would definitely help.  Need to win 4 of the last 7, then win a game in the BET.  One scenario that would work, for example, is beating Xavier twice, @MU, v. SH.  In my view, 10-8 is bordering on unrealistic.

Separately, Xavier is the worst matchup for us IMO.  I'd take a split with X and Gtown and taking care of business against SH and MU.

I look at at like this, we are on the bubble now. How does beating Xavier, Seton Hall and Marquette help us?

The way I look at it, most places have us in the tourney now, win the games you should and that shouldn't change barring some insane Cinderella stories come conference tourney time. It's not ideal, but in most cases the probability will work.

Win some we aren't supposed to like @GT or @Nova and its icing on the cake.

I don't think we will win the gems we are supposed to.

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 13, 2015, 06:40:50 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 13, 2015, 06:36:52 PM

Need to beat Georgetown and Villanova

That's not true, but would definitely help.  Need to win 4 of the last 7, then win a game in the BET.  One scenario that would work, for example, is beating Xavier twice, @MU, v. SH.  In my view, 10-8 is bordering on unrealistic.

Separately, Xavier is the worst matchup for us IMO.  I'd take a split with X and Gtown and taking care of business against SH and MU.

I look at at like this, we are on the bubble now. How does beating Xavier, Seton Hall and Marquette help us?

I hear you.  But finishing with 21 wins in that scenario (per RPI Wizard on rpiforecast.com) would give us a top 40 RPI and a top 20 SOS.  Objectively, that's bid worthy in most years.

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 13, 2015, 06:40:50 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 13, 2015, 06:36:52 PM

Need to beat Georgetown and Villanova

That's not true, but would definitely help.  Need to win 4 of the last 7, then win a game in the BET.  One scenario that would work, for example, is beating Xavier twice, @MU, v. SH.  In my view, 10-8 is bordering on unrealistic.

Separately, Xavier is the worst matchup for us IMO.  I'd take a split with X and Gtown and taking care of business against SH and MU.

I look at at like this, we are on the bubble now. How does beating Xavier, Seton Hall and Marquette help us?

win games while other teams are playing their way out. That's the way Feb.works. #for now remains22.

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 13, 2015, 06:44:47 PM

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 13, 2015, 06:40:50 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 13, 2015, 06:36:52 PM

Need to beat Georgetown and Villanova

That's not true, but would definitely help.  Need to win 4 of the last 7, then win a game in the BET.  One scenario that would work, for example, is beating Xavier twice, @MU, v. SH.  In my view, 10-8 is bordering on unrealistic.

Separately, Xavier is the worst matchup for us IMO.  I'd take a split with X and Gtown and taking care of business against SH and MU.

I look at at like this, we are on the bubble now. How does beating Xavier, Seton Hall and Marquette help us?

I hear you.  But finishing with 21 wins in that scenario (per RPI Wizard on rpiforecast.com) would give us a top 40 RPI and a top 20 SOS.  Objectively, that's bid worthy in most years.

21 might do it

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 13, 2015, 07:24:48 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 13, 2015, 06:44:47 PM

Quote from: Gray Chudney on February 13, 2015, 06:40:50 PM

Quote from: Marco Baldi on February 13, 2015, 06:36:52 PM

Need to beat Georgetown and Villanova

That's not true, but would definitely help.  Need to win 4 of the last 7, then win a game in the BET.  One scenario that would work, for example, is beating Xavier twice, @MU, v. SH.  In my view, 10-8 is bordering on unrealistic.

Separately, Xavier is the worst matchup for us IMO.  I'd take a split with X and Gtown and taking care of business against SH and MU.

I look at at like this, we are on the bubble now. How does beating Xavier, Seton Hall and Marquette help us?

I hear you.  But finishing with 21 wins in that scenario (per RPI Wizard on rpiforecast.com) would give us a top 40 RPI and a top 20 SOS.  Objectively, that's bid worthy in most years.

21 might do it

I agree. I looked over all fence/bubble teams, and we have better high quality wins than all but 2... that said, we should have at least one more (Nova, GTown, Xavier) on the way to 20...

I usually disagree with baldi but I think he's right.  At some point we have to have a "signature" win or else selection Sunday is going to be scary even at 10-8 w one be tourney win.  Do I think we ultimately make it in in that scenario? Yes.  Will I be confident? No.

A win against nova would be a huge highlight on our resume.  A win against gtown would give us wins (3 total) against two upper echelon BE teams (gtown and PC).

PC keeps rolling and perhaps we already have our signature wins but I'd feel much better with the committee recognizing big wins against multiple teams rather than just wondering if we are an average team that happens to be providences kryptonite.

If rysheed had only played in that butler game at CA...

I usually disagree with baldi but I think he's right.  At some point we have to have a "signature" win or else selection Sunday is going to be scary even at 10-8 w one be tourney win.  Do I think we ultimately make it in in that scenario? Yes.  Will I be confident? No.

A win against nova would be a huge highlight on our resume.  A win against gtown would give us wins (3 total) against two upper echelon BE teams (gtown and PC).

PC keeps rolling and perhaps we already have our signature wins but I'd feel much better with the committee recognizing big wins against multiple teams rather than just wondering if we are an average team that happens to be providences kryptonite.

If rysheed had only played in that butler game at CA...

seems like there is always alot of "what ifs" when referrering to Jordan

The magic number is 22 wins.  Anyway you slice it, 22 wins means we beat some quality resume builders to get there. 

I do agree, we lack a signature win so the Nova game will be huge.  But if you look at the teams around where Lunardi has St.Johns, almost all of them lack what we are calling a "signature win". 

If we can beat Xavier again and Georgetown once that will give us 5 top 50 wins.  Then we need to beat Seton Hall and Marquette on the road, plus one win in the Big East Tournament to get to 22.

USA Today bracketology updated as of this morning.

10 seed playing vs Indiana

http://q.usatoday.com/2015/02/15/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-march-madness-bubble/

Iowa gettin ready to drop one to northwestern

I usually disagree with baldi but I think he's right.  At some point we have to have a "signature" win or else selection Sunday is going to be scary even at 10-8 w one be tourney win.  Do I think we ultimately make it in in that scenario? Yes.  Will I be confident? No.

A win against nova would be a huge highlight on our resume.  A win against gtown would give us wins (3 total) against two upper echelon BE teams (gtown and PC).

PC keeps rolling and perhaps we already have our signature wins but I'd feel much better with the committee recognizing big wins against multiple teams rather than just wondering if we are an average team that happens to be providences kryptonite.

If rysheed had only played in that butler game at CA...

Or more than 7 minutes against Creighton.  What poor timing for a serious knee injury.

Will the Big East get more respect this year then last year?The other bubbles teams that play in the other conferences might have the edge because their conference is tougher. Beating ranked Nova would on the road would be huge and Avoid us have a goose egg against ranked teams.

....It looks like this team found their "come to Jesus" moment and understand that  they need one more big run to make the tournament.

Jerry Palm of CBSSports really likes us.  Has St Johns as a 7 seed vs LSU.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

And that was before the Xavier game.