Bubble Watch

I'm going to try and make daily posts on this thread, highlighting all the potential "bubble games" on a given day.  For those of you obsessed with this time of year like I am, should hopefully provide an easy way to keep track of such things.

2/20/15

Very light schedule.  These games are reaches to be defined as "bubble games."

Green Bay (21-6) hosts Cleveland St. (16-11)

GB likely has no shot at an at-large, but they have an almost respectable profile, but with a 46 RPI and a 65 BPI (and more importantly, no important games tonight) I figured I'd include them.

Iona (21-6) visits Marist (5-21)

Just throwing you a bone Baldi, this will likely be the only time Iona appears on this thread RPI of 46, but a BPI in the 80s with no top 100 RPI wins.

2/20/15

Very light schedule.  These games are reaches to be defined as "bubble games."

Green Bay (21-6) hosts Cleveland St. (16-11)

GB likely has no shot at an at-large, but they have an almost respectable profile, but with a 46 RPI and a 65 BPI (and more importantly, no important games tonight) I figured I'd include them.

Iona (21-6) visits Marist (5-21)

Just throwing you a bone Baldi, this will likely be the only time Iona appears on this thread RPI of 46, but a BPI in the 80s with no top 100 RPI wins.

Great thread!

Should Iona win out,, RPI will be in the low 30s.

I'm going to try and make daily posts on this thread, highlighting all the potential "bubble games" on a given day.  For those of you obsessed with this time of year like I am, should hopefully provide an easy way to keep track of such things.

Great idea...thanks

Green Bay loses in OT to Cleveland St. 66-61.  If it wasn't official before, it is now.  Automatic bid or bust.
Iona squeaked one out against Marist 72-68.  While the RPI number doesn't/won't look bad, Iona is 0-3 against the top 100 RPI.  Automatic bid or bust (sorry Baldi, although, I think you already knew this)

2/21/15 - Next Saturday shouldn't be as long, as some of this will sort itself out

AAC: 
Cincinatti (17-9) visits Houston.  A win does nothing, but a loss could be detrimental.

A 10:
UMass (16-10) @ VCU.  VCU has a bid locked up, UMass has work to do, this is a big opportunity for them.
Dayton (20-5) @ Duquesne.  Much like Cinci, a loss would be terrible, but a win does nothing.
Rhode Island (18-6) @ George Mason.  Common theme today, loss = bad, win = nothing.
GW (17-9) @ Richmond.  GW may already need a conference tournament title to make it
Davidson (18-6) hosts Fordham: This is getting repetitive.  Davidson can't lose this game if they want to dance.

ACC:
Pitt (17-10) @ Syracuse.  Pitt has an interesting profile.  Tough schedule, but not a lot to show for it plus 2 bad losses.  Will need to win out the reg season.
Miami (17-9) @ Louisville.  Big chance for Miami to get another high quality road win.  Will likely need to win either this game or the home game vs. UNC.
Virginia Tech @ NC State (15-11).  With several high quality wins and one bad loss (@WF), the profile looks good.  The only problem is the record.  NC State needs this game.

Big 12:
Iowa State @ Texas (17-9).  Texas has one top 50 win.  This is one of four remaining chances to add to that tally.  Their worst loss is a home loss to #53 Stanford, but at some point they must show they can win some of these tough games.  This will be an interesting team to watch down the stretch.

Big East:
Seton Hall (15-11) @ SJU (17-9).  Believe it or not, SHU is still alive, but might need to win out.  A win here doesn't help SJU as much as a loss would hurt.
Butler (19-7) @ Xavier (17-10).  Butler is likely in.  Xavier is in a similar position to SJU, and likely must win 3 more games (b/w regular season and BET)
Depaul @ Georgetown (17-8).   A loss wouldn't eliminate Gtown, but a win likely locks up a bid as this is their last chance for a bad loss...something they don't have (worst loss is home to Xavier)

Big Ten: (thanks for having no bubble games today)

Pac 12:
Cal @ Stanford (16-9).  While 6-1 vs 51-100, Stanford is 1-5 against the top 50.  Their only chance to add to that is the finale against Arizona, which might be a must win depending on how the conference tourney plays out.
UCLA (16-11) @ Arizona.  UCLA has one top 50 win, a home victory over #9 Utah.  They are 6-10 vs. the top 100, and this is their last chance to make a statement.  Might be a must win.

SEC:
Texas A&M (18-7) @ South Carolina.  While they would survive a loss at SC, they would do well by themselves not to risk it.
Florida @ LSU (18-8).  LSU, despite a few bad losses, is 4-3 vs top 50 and 9-5 vs top 100.  Two, possibly three more wins (and not losing to Auburn) would likely mean they are in, despite an iffy RPI of 50.
Tennessee @ Ole Miss (18-8).  Ole Miss is another interesting one.  Two top 50 wins, three bad losses.  Luckilly they have no real land mines from here out, but winning 3 of their last 5 would be recommended.
Georgia @ Alabama.  Alabama would likely have to win out, Georgia has a decent but not spectacular resume.

Other:
Gonzaga at St. Mary's (19-6).  St. Mary's has three games remaining.  This one, and two stinkers.  Win all three, and they have an outside shot for an at-large.  RPI is iffy at 54, but more important is the one top 100 win vs BYU to go with two bad losses.  Likely must win conference tourney.
Louisana Tech @ ODU (19-6).  ODU is another interesting one.  Three really bad losses, a neutral court win against LSU, and a big home win over VCU. I don't think it'll be enough, and the AQ might be their only chance.

*If I missed something, feel free to let me know via PM and I will edit the post.

I didn't understand why some were rooting for Xavier to beat Cincy the other night. Cincy seems to be in, while we are on that some bubble as Xavier. 
In the smaller conferences, we need the favorites to win their conference tourneys

I didn't understand why some were rooting for Xavier to beat Cincy the other night. Cincy seems to be in, while we are on that some bubble as Xavier. 
In the smaller conferences, we need the favorites to win their conference tourneys

For me, the answer is two-fold.  One, I have a hard time rooting against the BE.  Especially the way the conference has been disrespected since realignment.  In addition, every non-conference win bolsters the resumes of every conference team.  With Xavier winning that game, it affected the 2 times they played every other BE team, improving all of our profiles.

Looking around conferences, I think VCU winning the A10 would be crucial for our bubble. Maybe just them and Dayton get in.   Should teams like UMass or Rhode Island run the table, a spot we are fighting for gets taken

2/21/15 - Next Saturday shouldn't be as long, as some of this will sort itself out

AAC: 
Cincinatti (17-9) visits Houston.  A win does nothing, but a loss could be detrimental.

A 10:
UMass (16-10) @ VCU.  VCU has a bid locked up, UMass has work to do, this is a big opportunity for them.
Dayton (20-5) @ Duquesne.  Much like Cinci, a loss would be terrible, but a win does nothing.
Rhode Island (18-6) @ George Mason.  Common theme today, loss = bad, win = nothing.
GW (17-9) @ Richmond.  GW may already need a conference tournament title to make it
Davidson (18-6) hosts Fordham: This is getting repetitive.  Davidson can't lose this game if they want to dance.

ACC:
Pitt (17-10) @ Syracuse.  Pitt has an interesting profile.  Tough schedule, but not a lot to show for it plus 2 bad losses.  Will need to win out the reg season.
Miami (17-9) @ Louisville.  Big chance for Miami to get another high quality road win.  Will likely need to win either this game or the home game vs. UNC.
Virginia Tech @ NC State (15-11).  With several high quality wins and one bad loss (@WF), the profile looks good.  The only problem is the record.  NC State needs this game.

Big 12:
Iowa State @ Texas (17-9).  Texas has one top 50 win.  This is one of four remaining chances to add to that tally.  Their worst loss is a home loss to #53 Stanford, but at some point they must show they can win some of these tough games.  This will be an interesting team to watch down the stretch.

Big East:
Seton Hall (15-11) @ SJU (17-9).  Believe it or not, SHU is still alive, but might need to win out.  A win here doesn't help SJU as much as a loss would hurt.
Butler (19-7) @ Xavier (17-10).  Butler is likely in.  Xavier is in a similar position to SJU, and likely must win 3 more games (b/w regular season and BET)
Depaul @ Georgetown (17-8).   A loss wouldn't eliminate Gtown, but a win likely locks up a bid as this is their last chance for a bad loss...something they don't have (worst loss is home to Xavier)

Big Ten: (thanks for having no bubble games today)

Pac 12:
Cal @ Stanford (16-9).  While 6-1 vs 51-100, Stanford is 1-5 against the top 50.  Their only chance to add to that is the finale against Arizona, which might be a must win depending on how the conference tourney plays out.
UCLA (16-11) @ Arizona.  UCLA has one top 50 win, a home victory over #9 Utah.  They are 6-10 vs. the top 100, and this is their last chance to make a statement.  Might be a must win.

SEC:
Texas A&M (18-7) @ South Carolina.  While they would survive a loss at SC, they would do well by themselves not to risk it.
Florida @ LSU (18-8).  LSU, despite a few bad losses, is 4-3 vs top 50 and 9-5 vs top 100.  Two, possibly three more wins (and not losing to Auburn) would likely mean they are in, despite an iffy RPI of 50.
Tennessee @ Ole Miss (18-8).  Ole Miss is another interesting one.  Two top 50 wins, three bad losses.  Luckilly they have no real land mines from here out, but winning 3 of their last 5 would be recommended.
Georgia @ Alabama.  Alabama would likely have to win out, Georgia has a decent but not spectacular resume.

Other:
Gonzaga at St. Mary's (19-6).  St. Mary's has three games remaining.  This one, and two stinkers.  Win all three, and they have an outside shot for an at-large.  RPI is iffy at 54, but more important is the one top 100 win vs BYU to go with two bad losses.  Likely must win conference tourney.
Louisana Tech @ ODU (19-6).  ODU is another interesting one.  Three really bad losses, a neutral court win against LSU, and a big home win over VCU. I don't think it'll be enough, and the AQ might be their only chance.

*If I missed something, feel free to let me know via PM and I will edit the post.

Well done Logan. An extra element - I bolded all teams currently in Lunardi's tourney bracket, underlined last four in, italicized first four out. 

Well done Logan. An extra element - I bolded all teams currently in Lunardi's tourney bracket, underlined last four in, italicized first four out. 

Awesome, i'll be sure to add that element (or something to that effect) from here out.  Thanks.

Scores from 2/21  (will be updated)

AAC: 
Cincinatti (17-9) @ Houston -  Cinci 63 Hou 53

A 10:
UMass (16-10) @ VCU -    VCU 78 UMass72
Dayton (20-5) @ Duquesne -   Duquesne 83 Dayton 73
Rhode Island (18-6) @ George Mason -   URI 71 GM 56
GW (17-9) @ Richmond -   Richmond 56 GW 48
Davidson (18-6) hosts Fordham -   Davidson 76 Fordham 57

ACC:
Pitt (17-10) @ Syracuse -   Pitt 65 Syracuse 61
Miami (17-9) @ Louisville -   Louisville 55 Miami 53
Virginia Tech @ NC State (15-11) -   NC State 69 VT 53

Big 12:
Iowa State @ Texas (17-9) -   Iowa State 85 Texas 77
West Virginia @ Ok St (17-10) -   WVU 73 Ok St 63

Big East:
Seton Hall (15-11) @ SJU (17-9) -   SJU 85 SHU 72
Butler (19-7) @ Xavier (17-10) -   Xavier 73 Butler 56
Depaul @ Georgetown (17-8) -    G'town 68 Depaul 63

Pac 12:
Cal @ Stanford (16-9) -   Stanford 72 Cal 61
UCLA (16-11) @ Arizona -    Ari 57 UCLA 47

SEC:
Texas A&M (18-7) @ South Carolina -   A&M 62 SC 52
Florida @ LSU (18-8) -   LSU 70 Florida 60
Tennessee @ Ole Miss (18-8) -   Ole Miss 59 Tenn 57
Georgia (16-9) @ Alabama (16-10) -   Georgia 66 Alabama 65 OT

Other:
Gonzaga at St. Mary's (19-6) -    Gonzaga 70 St Mary's 70
LOUISIANA TECH @ ODU (19-6) -   ODU 72 La Tech 53

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

Those other Gaels taking it to Gonzaga!

2/22/15

Ohio State (19-7) @ Michigan - OSU will probably be a lock after these next two games.  @Michigan (#91) and home for Nebraska (109).

Utah @ Oregon (19-8) - Oregon is 0-3 vs top 25, 2-2 vs 25-50, 5-2 vs 51-100.  One bad loss.  Only other chance for a good win is @Stanford (50).  This would be the signature win their profile lacks.

Iowa (16-10) @ Nebraska - Iowa has a strong profile despite the record.  Road win at UNC, swept Ohio state, plus a home win vs. Maryland.  Two more wins should get them in, although they might need three to avoid having 14 losses (rare for a 14 loss team to make the tourney).

Indiana (18-9) @ Rutgers - One more win should get Indiana in.  Win either here or the next game @NW.  A loss in one of those would be their first bad loss of the season with 6 top 50 wins.

Temple (19-8) @ Tulsa (18-6) - Temple has a win over the #1 RPI team vs. Kansas.  They have 5 more top 100 wins.  Their most recent loss @SMU was their first loss with their full lineup intact.  Will be interesting to see how the committee treats them.  I haven't understood Tulsa's proximity to the field.  I think they still have to finish 4-1 and win a game or two.  They still have Cinci and @SMU on the schedule.  I don't think they get it done.

Michigan St. (18-8) @ Illinois (17-9) - Winner would likely just need to avoid bad losses from here on out.  I think both need another top 50 win before the year is over, but they both have multiple chances to do so.

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

Lunadi has us at the top of the bubble

2/22/15

Ohio State (19-7) @ Michigan -   Michigan 64 OSU 57

Utah @ Oregon (19-8) -   Oregon 69 Utah 58

Iowa (16-10) @ Nebraska -   Iowa 74 Nebraska 46

Indiana (18-9) @ Rutgers -   Indiana 84 Rutgers 54

Temple (19-8) @ Tulsa (18-6) -   Tulsa 55 Temple 39

Michigan St. (18-8) @ Illinois (17-9) -   Michigan St. 60 Illinois 53

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

2/22/15

Ohio State (19-7) @ Michigan -   Michigan 64 OSU 57

Utah @ Oregon (19-8) -   Oregon 69 Utah 58

Iowa (16-10) @ Nebraska -   Iowa 74 Nebraska 46

Indiana (18-9) @ Rutgers -   Indiana 84 Rutgers 54

Temple (19-8) @ Tulsa (18-6) -   Tulsa 55 Temple 39

Michigan St. (18-8) @ Illinois (17-9) -   Michigan St. 60 Illinois 53

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

Oregon snaking its way in to bubble talk.  I wonder if Tulsa can get there.

Quote from: LoganK on February 22, 2015, 07:48:16 PM

2/22/15

Ohio State (19-7) @ Michigan -   Michigan 64 OSU 57

Utah @ Oregon (19-8) -   Oregon 69 Utah 58

Iowa (16-10) @ Nebraska -   Iowa 74 Nebraska 46

Indiana (18-9) @ Rutgers -   Indiana 84 Rutgers 54

Temple (19-8) @ Tulsa (18-6) -   Tulsa 55 Temple 39

Michigan St. (18-8) @ Illinois (17-9) -   Michigan St. 60 Illinois 53

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

Oregon snaking its way in to bubble talk.  I wonder if Tulsa can get there.

Tulsa's resume is garbage. Lost to Oral Roberts and a D2 team.

Only bubble game on 2/23 was us.  If you didn't know....we won.  Both teams in pretty good shape to dance.

2/24/15

Texas (17-10) @ WVU - Texas is 1-9 vs the top 50.  4-10 vs the top 100.  Their worst loss is to Stanford (51).  They've lost 6 of 9.  I think that all puts them firmly on the bubble.  It's great to play tough teams, but you need to win some of the games.

LSU (19-8) @ Auburn - LSU is one of the last four byes according to Lunardi.  When you're one of the last four byes you don't want to lose @Auburn (130). Would be their 4th bad loss, and another reason to keep them out despite being 4-4 vs the top 50, 9-5 top 100.

NC State (16-11) @ UNC  - A loss @UNC isn't a resume killer for NC State, but this is a big chance to move themselves off the bubble.  Would still need to avoid a loss in their next game @BC either way.

Boston College @ Pitt (18-10) - Pitt likely has to win out the regular season to have a chance.  They face one top 100 opponent the rest of the way (Miami #66)

New Mexico @ Boise State (20-7) - I don't see Boise State making it without winning out.  That includes @San Diego State and three teams worse than 150 in the RPI.

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

A Cuse win over ND tonight will help out.