Bubble Watch

Texas down 13 right now late 2nd half @ WVU.  This would be their 3rd loss in a row and they have @Kansas / Baylor / Kansas St left.  We should move ahead of them if they lose to WVU.

A Cuse win over ND tonight will help out.

Slipping away from them. I like Johnson from cuse. Some ladontae henton in his game.

2/24/15 - results and reaction

Texas (17-10) @ WVU -   WVU 71 Texas 64      I think Texas now has to beat Kansas or Baylor, beat KState in the finale, and then get another top 50 win in the Big 12 tourney to have a chance.  We'll see what happens.

LSU (19-8) @ Auburn - LSU 84 Auburn 61      LSU only has one more "bad loss" potential game on the schedule, home to Tennesee (88).  One or two more wins between now and the NCAA tourney and they should be in.

NC State (16-11) @ UNC  -   NC State 58 UNC 46      Wow.  NC State may have just punched their ticket as long as they don't do something stupid and lose their next game @BC.  Home win vs Duke, Road wins at UNC and Louisville.  One bad loss @WF

Boston College @ Pitt (18-10) -   Pitt 71  BC 65   Nothing changes here.  Pitt still needs to keep winning

New Mexico @ Boise State (20-7) -   Boise State 76 New Mexico 65   Same thing, Boise must keep winning.

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

2/25/15

George Mason @ Dayton (20-6) -   Dayton is more of an 11 seed than the 9 Lunardi has them at, IMO.  Either way, a loss to George Mason (222) would put them squarely on the bubble.

Davidson (19-6) @ Rhode Island (19-6) -   This might be a play-out game.  Davidson might be able to recover from a loss, but URI might be done if they lose.

Indiana (19-9) @ Northwestern -   Indiana is in unless they lose out.  Win this game and it locks them up.

UCF @ Cincinnati (18-9) -   Cinci was inching towards a lock before a three game losing streak.  Now they must have two potential land mines starting with UCF.

Tulane @ Tulsa (19-7) -   A loss here all but ends Tulsa's chances.

Florida St @ Miami (17-10) -    Miami just about needs to win out.

San Jose State @ Colorado State ( 23-5) -  Over their final three games, Colorado St faces RPI teams 335, 292, and 148.  Potential losses a bubble team cannot afford.

Illinois (17-10) @ Iowa (17-10) -   Both have pretty good wins with only one bad loss.  Both would like another good win.  Illinois needs this more than Iowa.

Georgia (17-9) @ Ole Miss (19-8) -  Unless they plan on beating Kentucky, Georgia needs this game IMO.  Ole Miss would likely survive a loss.

Washington @ UCLA (16-12) -   UCLA has two top 50 wins (both home games).  One bad loss.  This game vs 89, followed by two more home games vs 140 and 185.  Must win out to survive IMO.

Oregon (20-8) @ Cal -  Oregon has Two top 50 wins (both home games).  One bad loss.  Three games vs top 100 remain.  Would be smart to win them all.

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

Thanks.  I just don't see them having quality wins - especially quality road wins - much like Texas only with easier schedules.  It's great to play tough opponents, but you must win a few of them to prove you can win a game in the tourney.

Thanks.  I just don't see them having quality wins - especially quality road wins - much like Texas only with easier schedules.  It's great to play tough opponents, but you must win a few of them to prove you can win a game in the tourney.

True - having a great SoS with 14 losses doesn't look good - I think Texas might wind up with 14 with this finish.

Nice work Logan.  Appreciate it.

Not that they are on the bubble, but I think Arkansas will give Kentucky a run for their money

Looks like Lunardi is listening...Texas now among the last four in along with Illinois, Oregon, and UCLA.  Dayton down to a 10.

Indiana with a bad loss to Northwestern.

2/25/15 - results and reaction

George Mason @ Dayton (20-6) -   Dayton 76 GMU 63  Dayton avoids the bad loss

Davidson (19-6) @ Rhode Island (19-6) -   Davidson 60 URI 59   It would seem URI is done barring winning out and a run to the finals.

Indiana (19-9) @ Northwestern -   NW 72 Indiana 65  Even with this loss Indiana might still be a lock

UCF @ Cincinnati (18-9) -   Cinci 83 UCF 60  Cinci survived land mine #1.  Next up @Tulane

Tulane @ Tulsa (19-7) -   Tulsa 76 Tulane 55  Tulsa still needs to win 2 of 3 to have a chance, possibly all three

Florida St @ Miami (17-10) -    Miami 81 FSU 77    Xavier Rathan-Mayes, a freshman for FSU scored 30 pts over the final 4:38 to make this a game.  He put up 26 consecutive FSU points without missing a shot.  Almost shot Miami out of the tournament....

San Jose State @ Colorado State ( 23-5) -  Colorado St 72 San Jose St 56

Illinois (17-10) @ Iowa (17-10) -   Iowa 68 Illinois 60   Not looking good for Illinois.  They will need to win out and help to get in it seems.

Georgia (17-9) @ Ole Miss (19-8) -   Georgia 76 Ole Miss 72  Georgie might still need more.  Three mid 30s RPI wins, four bad losses (thanks to SC sliding outside the top 100).  Only other opportunity pre tourney time for a good win?  Kentucky.

Washington @ UCLA (16-12) -   UCLA 88 Washington 66   UCLA stays alive but still needs to do more.  Two land mines to finish the season, will likely need a top 50 win in conference tourney, currently 2-7 vs top 50.

Oregon (20-8) @ Cal -    Oregon 80 Cal 69  Slightly better shape than UCLA due to better record and better games to finish the season.  Still might need another top 50 win.

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

2/26/15  - I might've missed a game today...

Houston @ Temple (19-9)  -  Potential bad loss.

Minnesota @ Michigan St. (19-8) -   MSU has two top 50 home wins.  One bad loss.  Two big opportunities left after this game.  The 7 seed they are holding is based off the name on their jersey and the name of their coach.

Nebraska @ Ohio St (19-8) -   OSU not in as good of shape as I thought.  Only two top 50 wins, though no bad losses.  Would be smart not to add a bad loss to the profile.

Rutgers @ Purdue (18-9) - What a climb by Purdue.  Avoid this bad loss and win one (possibly two) more and it looks like they'll be dancing. 

Stanford (17-9) @ Oregon St. -  Stanford has one top 50 win, @Texas (which isn't looking like such a great win anymore).  Next best win is Wofford.  Three bad losses.  Need to finish at least 3-1 IMO.

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

Logan: great job with the thread and daily updateds. 

I just went through the teams that are below us (Last 8 in and first 8 out) on Lunardi's bracketology and checked out their remaining schedules.  So I figured I'd post it, for those looking a little further ahead.  I see a lot of potential losses on this list, but also some chances for some teams to get some good wins.  Also several of the teams on this list play each other. 

Dayton: @VCU / URI / @LaSalle
Temple: Houston / @ECU / UCONN
Cinci: @Tulane / @Tulsa / Memphis
Oregon: @Stanford / @Oregon St
Purdue: Rutgers / @Ohio St / @Mich St
Texas: @Kansas / Baylor / Kansas St
Davidson: GW / VCU / Duq
UCLA: Wash St / USC
______________________________________
Stanford: Oregon St / Oregon / @ Arizona St
Illinois: NW / Nebraska / @Purdue
Tulsa: @Memphis / Cinci / @SMU
Boise St: @SD St / @San Jose St / Fresno St
PITT: @Wake / Miami / @FSU
Miami: UNC / @PITT / @Va Tech
BYU: @Portland / @Gonzaga
Rhode Island: @LaSalle / @Dayton / St Joes

Logan: great job with the thread and daily updateds. 

I just went through the teams that are below us (Last 8 in and first 8 out) on Lunardi's bracketology and checked out their remaining schedules.  So I figured I'd post it, for those looking a little further ahead.  I see a lot of potential losses on this list, but also some chances for some teams to get some good wins.  Also several of the teams on this list play each other. 

Dayton: @VCU / URI / @LaSalle
Temple: Houston / @ECU / UCONN
Cinci: @Tulane / @Tulsa / Memphis
Oregon: @Stanford / @Oregon St
Purdue: Rutgers / @Ohio St / @Mich St
Texas: @Kansas / Baylor / Kansas St
Davidson: GW / VCU / Duq
UCLA: Wash St / USC
______________________________________
Stanford: Oregon St / Oregon / @ Arizona St
Illinois: NW / Nebraska / @Purdue
Tulsa: @Memphis / Cinci / @SMU
Boise St: @SD St / @San Jose St / Fresno St
PITT: @Wake / Miami / @FSU
Miami: UNC / @PITT / @Va Tech
BYU: @Portland / @Gonzaga
Rhode Island: @LaSalle / @Dayton / St Joes

Great job --- based on Lunardi's "bracket math" we are actually also ahead of Colorado State and LSU - the #1 ranked "bubble team" (he claims the top 36 are "solid" bets since their odds are 80% or better to make tourney.

"The bubble (21 teams for 11 spots)
• IN (11, in S-curve order): 37-St. John's, 38-Colorado State, 39-LSU, 40-Dayton, 41-Temple, 42-Cincinnati, 43-Oregon

Last four in: 44-Purdue, 45-Texas, 46-Davidson, 47-UCLA
First four out: 69-Stanford, 70-Illinois, 71-Tulsa, 72-Boise State
Next four out: 73-Pittsburgh, 74-Miami (Fla.), 75-BYU, 76-Rhode Island"

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12386448/latest-update-joe-lunardi-bracket-math-college-basketball

Rhode Island getting in?

Quote from: upstate32 on February 26, 2015, 10:50:46 AM

Logan: great job with the thread and daily updateds. 

I just went through the teams that are below us (Last 8 in and first 8 out) on Lunardi's bracketology and checked out their remaining schedules.  So I figured I'd post it, for those looking a little further ahead.  I see a lot of potential losses on this list, but also some chances for some teams to get some good wins.  Also several of the teams on this list play each other. 

Dayton: @VCU / URI / @LaSalle
Temple: Houston / @ECU / UCONN
Cinci: @Tulane / @Tulsa / Memphis
Oregon: @Stanford / @Oregon St
Purdue: Rutgers / @Ohio St / @Mich St
Texas: @Kansas / Baylor / Kansas St
Davidson: GW / VCU / Duq
UCLA: Wash St / USC
______________________________________
Stanford: Oregon St / Oregon / @ Arizona St
Illinois: NW / Nebraska / @Purdue
Tulsa: @Memphis / Cinci / @SMU
Boise St: @SD St / @San Jose St / Fresno St
PITT: @Wake / Miami / @FSU
Miami: UNC / @PITT / @Va Tech
BYU: @Portland / @Gonzaga
Rhode Island: @LaSalle / @Dayton / St Joes

Great job --- based on Lunardi's "bracket math" we are actually also ahead of Colorado State and LSU - the #1 ranked "bubble team" (he claims the top 36 are "solid" bets since their odds are 80% or better to make tourney.

"The bubble (21 teams for 11 spots)
• IN (11, in S-curve order): 37-St. John's, 38-Colorado State, 39-LSU, 40-Dayton, 41-Temple, 42-Cincinnati, 43-Oregon

Last four in: 44-Purdue, 45-Texas, 46-Davidson, 47-UCLA
First four out: 69-Stanford, 70-Illinois, 71-Tulsa, 72-Boise State
Next four out: 73-Pittsburgh, 74-Miami (Fla.), 75-BYU, 76-Rhode Island"

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/12386448/latest-update-joe-lunardi-bracket-math-college-basketball

Nice...we're in a good spot.  Ultimately all that matters is we need to keep winning games.  But we do have a margin for error if Lunardi is right (he usually is).

Rhode Island getting in?

Not without winning the A10 tourney, or somehow playing Dayton, VCU and Davidson leading up to a finals loss (after also beating lasalle, dayton, and st. joe's to end the season).  0-4 vs top 50.  251 non-conf SOS.

Logan: great job with the thread and daily updateds. 

I just went through the teams that are below us (Last 8 in and first 8 out) on Lunardi's bracketology and checked out their remaining schedules.  So I figured I'd post it, for those looking a little further ahead.  I see a lot of potential losses on this list, but also some chances for some teams to get some good wins.  Also several of the teams on this list play each other. 

Great addition, love it, and thank you.  I would rather be using a bracketology by someone who is actually good at them (Lunardi is 44th of 76 bracketologists who have been doing it for at least three years - bracketmatrix.com), but Lunardi seems to update his the most often and I'm too lazy to search through the higher rated ones for one that updates more than once a week .
If I get the motivation I'm going to make my own bracket this year; see how it stacks up to his and also the more accurate ones.

I thought Lunardi has gotten every team correct every year except for last year where he just missed with SMU.