Bubble Watch

Heard Lunardi say the other day he has missed 5 teams in 5 years

Lunardi is a beast when it comes to picking the teams that actually make the tournament.  And that's all I'm worried about for this team.

The reason he is ranked so low on Bracket Matrix is because they award points for seeding teams correctly.  Lunardi apparently isn't as good as others when it comes to predicting seeds.

I thought Lunardi has gotten every team correct every year except for last year where he just missed with SMU.

He gets nearly all of the teams (sometimes all), but his seeding is generally off.  I'm not saying he's terrible at it.  Just that there are lots of others that have been better, though over a small sample size.

Total teams correctly selected:

2006-2010 (65 teams) 63, 63, 65, 64, 64
2011-2014 (68 teams) 65, 67, 68, 67

It seems impressive.  Consider that by the time selection sunday comes - removing AQ's and locks from the equation - you're left with about 10 spots and about 15 teams.  By default you're guaranteed to get 5 of those correct.  Assuming you get two or three of the remaining 5 correct, you end up at about 65, 66. 

Overall, Lunardi is slightly above average at what he does.  (out of a possible 408, he is 1.39 pts higher per year than the average bracket in bracketmatrix)

2/26/15  - I might've missed a game today...

Houston @ Temple (19-9)  -  Temple 66 Houston 54    Bad loss avoided.

Minnesota @ Michigan St. (19-8) -   Minnesota 96 Michigan St. 90 OT    When MSU misses out on the tourney, or sneaks in as a 12, remember that you heard it here first

Nebraska @ Ohio St (19-8) -  Ohio St 81 Nebraska 57   Bad loss avoided.  Should win two of their last three to feel good.  Might need more after that.

Rutgers @ Purdue (18-9) -   Purdue 92 Rutgers 85   Bad loss avoided.  Purdue has a very bubbly resume.  Might need to steal one of their next two road games at Ohio State and Michigan State.

Stanford (17-9) @ Oregon St. -    Stanford 75 Oregon St 48   Questionable loss avoided, probably still need to beat Oregon and/or Arizona.

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

2/28/15

Cincinnati (19-9) @ Tulane -

Tulsa (20-7) @ Memphis -

Dayton (21-6) @ VCU -

George Washington @ Davidson (20-6) -

NC State (17-11) @ Boston College -

North Carolina @ Miami (18-10) -

Oklahoma St (17-10) @ Texas Tech -

Texas (17-11) @ Kansas -

Georgetown (18-8) @ St. John's (19-9) -

Villanova @ Xavier (18-11) -

Iowa (18-10) @ Penn State -

Northwestern @ Illinois (17-11) -

Old Dominion (21-6) @ North Texas -

Missouri @ Georgia (18-9) -

Ole Miss (19-9) @ LSU (20-8) -

Auburn @ Texas A&M (19-8) -

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

Big win for Dayton over VCU.

BYU just beat Gonzaga in Spokane. 

BYU just beat Gonzaga in Spokane. 

Gotta help Nova

2/28/15  results

Cincinnati (19-9) @ Tulane -   Cincinnati 63 Tulane 47

Tulsa (20-7) @ Memphis -  Tulsa 74 Memphis 72

Dayton (21-6) @ VCU -   Dayton 59 VCU 55  Dayton is in that "should be in" range with this win.

George Washington @ Davidson (20-6) -  Davidson 77 GW 66

NC State (17-11) @ Boston College -   BC 79 NC State 63  Really, NC State?  You win @Louisville and UNC but lose in BC?  Would've locked em up too...

North Carolina @ Miami (18-10) -   UNC 73 Miami 64 

Oklahoma St (17-10) @ Texas Tech -   Texas Tech 63 Ok St 62  Ok St is trying to pull a Texas...

Texas (17-11) @ Kansas -   Kansas 69 Texas 64   Pop....pop....pop....

Georgetown (18-8) @ St. John's (19-9) -   SJU 81 G'town 70

Villanova @ Xavier (18-11) -   Villanova 78 Xavier 66

Iowa (18-10) @ Penn State -   Iowa 81 Penn St 77

Northwestern @ Illinois (17-11) -   Illinois 86 NW 60

Old Dominion (21-6) @ North Texas -   ODU 70 North Texas 57

Missouri @ Georgia (18-9) -   Georgia 68 Missouri 44

Ole Miss (19-9) @ LSU (20-8) -   LSU 73 Ole Miss 63

Auburn @ Texas A&M (19-8) -   Texas A&M 80 Auburn 55

BYU (22-8) @ Gonzaga -   BYU 73 Gonzaga 72   

Boise State (22-7) @ San Diego St -  Boise State 56 SD St 46 

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

3/1/15

Marquette @ Providence (19-9) - Providence is probably in, but they shouldn't risk a 4th bad loss.  Win this and they become a lock.

Michigan State (19-9) @ Wisconsin -   A loss doesn't hurt.  But they need to win at least one of the last two to feel safe IMO (Purdue, @Indiana)

Pittsburgh (19-10) @ Wake Forest -  Pitt can't afford another bad loss.

Oregon (21-8) @ Stanford (18-9) -   Stanford needs it more, but Oregon also needs it.  Stanford still has another opportunity @Arizona in the finale

Purdue (19-9) @ Ohio State (20-8) -  Purdue with a much better top 50 record, but two bad losses to Ohio State's none.

Washington St @ UCLA (17-12) - UCLA has to win it's next two.  This one, and home for USC.

*Teams projected as in are in bold.  Teams part of the last four in are also underlined.  Teams part of the first four out are italicized.  Any team with a record posted is on the bubble.

Great job as always Logan!

UConn beats Memphis and Temple, they on the bubble?

UConn beats Memphis and Temple, they on the bubble?

Doubt it, but I think they could win the AAC tourney.

Quote from: Marco Baldi on March 01, 2015, 06:36:06 PM

UConn beats Memphis and Temple, they on the bubble?

Doubt it, but I think they could win the AAC tourney.

I honestly expect them to win that tournament on their home court with very few fans from other AAC teams in attendance.

That's a 2 bid conference IMO; more than 3 is criminal.  It's second best team would be 7th in the BE

Wake beat Pitt. Bubble go pop

3/1/15 - results and reaction

Marquette @ Providence (19-9) -   Prov 77 Marq 66   That should do it for Providence.

Michigan State (19-9) @ Wisconsin -   Wisc 68 MSU 61  Losing @Wisc will not harm your bubble standing.

Pittsburgh (19-10) @ Wake Forest -  WF 69 Pitt 66  Bye for now Pitt.  See you if you make a run in the ACC tourney.

Oregon (21-8) @ Stanford (18-9) -   Oregon 73 Stanford 70  Stanford needs to win @Ari in the finale to have a chance

Purdue (19-9) @ Ohio State (20-8) -  OSU 65 Purdue 61  Not a bad loss for Purdue.  More of a missed opportunity to cement a spot.  OSU locks up a bid with a win @Penn St (might be a lock anyway)

Washington St @ UCLA (17-12) - UCLA 72 WSU 67  Keeps the bubble from bursting on UCLA entirely, though I still don't think it looks good.

3/2/15

Only one bubble game today:

Baylor @ Texas (17-12) - Texas needs this game.  Without it they finish the regular season 2-12 against the top 50.

Brawl (using the term loosely) in the Baylor Texas game.  4 players from Texas and 3 from Baylor ejected.  Tied game with a minute to go in OT.

Brawl (using the term loosely) in the Baylor Texas game.  4 players from Texas and 3 from Baylor ejected.  Tied game with a minute to go in OT.

Punches thrown?

Baylor had to be escorted off the floor.