The problem is there aren't many mid-majors competing for spots this year, at least compared to recent years (from my memory, which is shite). Excluding the power 5 + AAC and A10, you have teams like BYU, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State (kinda, like I said, they're probably in), Old Dominion (barely). I may have left one or two out but that's pretty much it. As for locks, there's Northern Iowa, Wichita St., Gonzaga....that's about it. That's 4 conferences (if ODU is actually an at-large team, 3 if not). What this means is that there won't be that many "bid thieves" this year, leaving more spots for power conference teams. It will come down to what the majority of the committee prefers; be it big wins, no bad losses, good computer numbers, etc. Should be interesting to see how it plays out.
If Texas makes the tournament, it will be based off of their perceived potential. I, like you, don't see their resume as being worthy.