In terms of the Lav era examples- difference between Dom and Trimble is that Dom came in with higher expectations and he was a solid 4 star. Its understandable why more teams would be after him. Trimble was recruited by good spots as you said, but I do not think his ceiling was the same.
The point though and then I'll leave it here was that eg Pointer was I think the number 25 recruit in his class and he was awful for three years and after those three years few would have predicted his fourth. David Cain was an unheralded recruit who was for three years garbage - the worst fan base in the world used to BOO loudly when he was at the scorer's table - and he had perhaps what in retrospect was perhaps the most remarkable senior year in the history of SJ basketball. The point being that you can't always tell. It's easy to identify genius when you see it, like when Mullin was a freshman, or Malik, or Harrison, or
Phil Greene Ponds. It's harder - and probably impossible - to identify kids like DJ Kennedy or Cedric Jackson or Quincy Roberts or Tyshwan Edmondson, who transform themselves into what higher rated kids with less motivation fail to transform themselves into. Most kids have to grow up before you can evaluate what sort of adults they are. By way of analogy, as a kid I was identified as a super genius and I turned out to be a loathsome piece of shit. No one predicted that, except my father.