Is NCAA tourn in reach?

Quote from: we are sju on January 25, 2013, 09:32:03 AM

Again, I have us winning 18 heading into BET which is a pretty aggressive prediction. As far as the BET I don't see us being a team that could go on a run becuase we don't shoot threes and are a terrible free throw shooting team. Those are generally the traits on teams that make runs in tournaments. Our margin of error is just to small.

Before the season I had us at 20 wins. WE can easily get bounced in first round of BET or make it to final 4. You never know.
We need to hit free throws better (at least at a 70%) clip but I disagree about the 3 point shot. They make you or break you. It is a bit of a trick and pony offense. Teams that just execute their offense like we did in 2010 can make the dance. If you rely solely on 3 point shots you are dead if they don't fall one night.

And neither Syracuse nor Louisville shoot FT's at 70%.  Both below.  Syracuse at 64%.  SJU at 62%

We can win without the 3.

However Free Throws could be the death of us.

That is shocking stat about Cuse. Our percentage would be a lot higher if Dee was hitting free throws like he should (about 85%) He takes a lot of our free throw attempts along with Jakarr. I see Dee Sampson and Pointer all improving over the next 11 games.

We can win without the 3.

However Free Throws could be the death of us.

Agree 100%

Two things I think prevent us from completely gelling and pulling off an impressive February and March.  As much as we're starting to play better;

     1) I don't know that we can put away victories.  Even if we had a lead against a good team... I'm not confident at all in this team 'sealing the deal' when up 10 with 5 minutes to play.

and, 2) I don't know if we can score enough to keep up with Syracuse, Louisville, and even Georgetown, or some of our other opponents. 

But if we keep improving, who knows.. stranger things have happened.  And as CR is quick to point out, Lavin coaches for March, not November.. his teams generally play strongest at the end of the season.
But I would worry that a little success and our young team might start putting the cart before the horse.  If they don't concentrate on the little things, we could get out rebounded by 15, for exampe - and that's the game.  Against any opponent.   Same goes with guarding an opposing 3 point shooter.  If we don't have our focus on Sunday, Fuquan and Oliver, or Cosby, they could come out and hit 4 or 5 three-pointers each, and again that's the ballgame, because we won't be able to climb out of that type of hole.
Bottom line, we're still learning to win, and our margin of error is very small.   We'll grab a couple wins down the stretch, but I'd be shocked if there weren't frustrating losses as well.

Yes. Not consistent enough to predict any victory.

1. We start out too slow and dig a whole in which better teams will bury us.

2. We can't put teams away, by coaches decree, since he takes the air out of the ball. The better teams will catch us.

3. This is a summary of the first two. We are way too inconsistant.

4. Can't hit free throws.

5. Can't rebound with the big boys, stifleing our fast break, forcing us into a half court game. Not our strength.

UNDERDOG teams that go on runs in tourney always shoot threes. Cuse with GMAC in BET, Butler and VCU in tourney. Show me a surprise team that made a run in a tourney by not utilizing the three and shooting awful at the line.

That is shocking stat about Cuse. Our percentage would be a lot higher if Dee was hitting free throws like he should (about 85%) He takes a lot of our free throw attempts along with Jakarr. I see Dee Sampson and Pointer all improving over the next 11 games.

With a slightly shortened rotation and Obekpa coming off the bench a bit more, ft shooting will probably improve a bit.  Dom has already improved a lot.  D'Angelo has been oddly inconsistent lately. 

UNDERDOG teams that go on runs in tourney always shoot threes. Cuse with GMAC in BET, Butler and VCU in tourney. Show me a surprise team that made a run in a tourney by not utilizing the three and shooting awful at the line.

Btw, I'm talking about the big east tourney, not the ncaa's.   Right now we aren't an underdog, we're in the mix.  If we win the next 2 we can definitely make an even better case.  All I care about is besting seton hall right now.  We play the big east tournament on our home court and this season, for the first time, are starting to play real good defense and are as deep as we have been.  We will have a shot to make a decent Big East Tournament run I think, should we be able to secure a first round bye at least.  Gotta just keep winning, especially the next 2. 

Quote from: sju89tr on January 25, 2013, 09:52:21 AM

That is shocking stat about Cuse. Our percentage would be a lot higher if Dee was hitting free throws like he should (about 85%) He takes a lot of our free throw attempts along with Jakarr. I see Dee Sampson and Pointer all improving over the next 11 games.

With a slightly shortened rotation and Obekpa coming off the bench a bit more, ft shooting will probably improve a bit.  Dom has already improved a lot.  D'Angelo has been oddly inconsistent lately. 

Agree. Critical for Harrison to nail FTS down the stretch. Confident he will.

On coach to make sure ball is in Harrison's or Branch's hands at the end of games. And he should probably wear a rubber band or something to remind him to get Obepka out of the game with any kind of decent lead down the strech. I am not sure that fake injury thing will fly going forward.

BTW we are dead last in FT% in BE at 62% and one of our guards the Circle is shooting 58% from the line.

UNDERDOG teams that go on runs in tourney always shoot threes. Cuse with GMAC in BET, Butler and VCU in tourney. Show me a surprise team that made a run in a tourney by not utilizing the three and shooting awful at the line.

Princeton.  Not much of a run, but they go against what you suggest.  And to top it off, they werent super athletic like us either.  The EASIEST way to go on a run as a surprise team is to be 3 happy.  It's also the easiest way for a top team to get knocked off if they are cold.

Milk the shot clock good passing team that hit their free throws. Theer is now and shot clock and does anything else about those Princeton teams remind you of this SJU team?

 I feel wrong even thinking about the NCAA tourney with this team.  10 days ago 3/4 of the board was suicidal.

 If we've learned anything with this team it is that they are inconsistent.  Let's beat Seton Hall and take it from there.  If we win the next 2 then we can begin the discussion. The hard part of the BE schedule hasn't really begun yet, has it?

Even though we are doing a better job, Rebounding still wories me as does our pittiful FT shooting.  I feel better about our team with Branch, energence of Pointer and Lavin's shorter bench. FT shooting and rebounding are the reasons I am not totally sold about our turnaround. The ugly offense and lack of shooters are secondary concerns
Still predicting 18 wins though

Even though we are doing a better job, Rebounding still wories me as does our pittiful FT shooting.  I feel better about our team with Branch, energence of Pointer and Lavin's shorter bench. FT shooting and rebounding are the reasons I am not totally sold about our turnaround. The ugly offense and lack of shooters are secondary concerns
Still predicting 18 wins though

Shorter bench?  Yeah, we've dropped Marco way down, but we've added Jones back into the mix.

3 game winning streak
Jones minutes 3, 3, 8
Balamou minutes 3, 2, 7
Bourgault minutes 3, dnp, 4
Those guys are on fringe of rotation to say the least!

Furthermore
Obepka 20, 24, 10
Garrett 7, 18, 23

3 game winning streak
Jones minutes 3, 3, 8
Balamou minutes 3, 2, 7
Bourgault minutes 3, dnp, 4
Those guys are on fringe of rotation to say the least!

Furthermore
Obepka 20, 24, 10
Garrett 7, 18, 23

Shows that Coach has adjusted his lineup based on the opponent---and it has worked.

I have 0 probelem with the shorter bench, especially considering the slower pace we play at.

Quote from: we are sju on January 25, 2013, 01:15:49 PM

3 game winning streak
Jones minutes 3, 3, 8
Balamou minutes 3, 2, 7
Bourgault minutes 3, dnp, 4
Those guys are on fringe of rotation to say the least!

Furthermore
Obepka 20, 24, 10
Garrett 7, 18, 23

Shows that Coach has adjusted his lineup based on the opponent---and it has worked.

I think Obekpa's and Garrett's minutes are where Lavin will earn his coaching credits going forward in order to have the best lineup on the floor in the coming games.  I think Lavin has already relegated Jones, Balamou & Bourgault to being deep bench players this season unless foul trouble or injury strikes. 

To claim the prize, you gotta see the prize.