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Bracketology

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loughlinguy

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #260 on: March 04, 2014, 10:24:50 AM »
There may well be a three way tie for third place in the conference. If SJU, Xavier and Providence tie, what is the tie breaker for the 3,4,5 seeds? Anyone know?
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Moose

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #261 on: March 04, 2014, 10:37:19 AM »
Quote from: loughlinguy on March 04, 2014, 10:24:50 AM
There may well be a three way tie for third place in the conference. If SJU, Xavier and Providence tie, what is the tie breaker for the 3,4,5 seeds? Anyone know?

Record vs. 1st seed, 2nd seed and so on down has been the only tiebreaker I've seen after head to heads
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Tha Kid

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #262 on: March 04, 2014, 10:38:58 AM »
Quote from: Moose on March 04, 2014, 10:37:19 AM
Quote from: loughlinguy on March 04, 2014, 10:24:50 AM
There may well be a three way tie for third place in the conference. If SJU, Xavier and Providence tie, what is the tie breaker for the 3,4,5 seeds? Anyone know?

Record vs. 1st seed, 2nd seed and so on down has been the only tiebreaker I've seen after head to heads

Wouldn't we lose the head to heads in a 3 way tie with X and PC?
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paultzman

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #263 on: March 04, 2014, 10:50:19 AM »
Quote from: loughlinguy on March 04, 2014, 10:24:50 AM
There may well be a three way tie for third place in the conference. If SJU, Xavier and Providence tie, what is the tie breaker for the 3,4,5 seeds? Anyone know?

http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/bige/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/2013-14/misc_non_event/tiebreaker-procedure.pdf
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happyrappy

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #264 on: March 04, 2014, 10:54:59 AM »
This stuff is giving me a headache....
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boo3

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #265 on: March 04, 2014, 01:10:17 PM »
Get to the BE final, at a minimum.  I think we need to win it, personally.   
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LoganK

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #266 on: March 04, 2014, 02:58:58 PM »
Quote from: boo3 on March 04, 2014, 01:10:17 PM
Get to the BE final, at a minimum.  I think we need to win it, personally.   

Is that assuming a loss to Marquette?
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boo3

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #267 on: March 04, 2014, 03:07:03 PM »
No.. A loss to Marquette and the only way to get in is to win the tourney. Not enough quality wins.
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Gray Chudney

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #268 on: March 04, 2014, 03:07:27 PM »
Quote from: boo3 on March 04, 2014, 01:10:17 PM
Get to the BE final, at a minimum.  I think we need to win it, personally.   
if we beat marquette and make it to the BET finals, we'd have 3 more top 75 rpi wins, including 1 against nova or creighton.  that happens and we are definitely in
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LoganK

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #269 on: March 04, 2014, 03:19:04 PM »
Quote from: boo3 on March 04, 2014, 03:07:03 PM
No.. A loss to Marquette and the only way to get in is to win the tourney. Not enough quality wins.

In a normal season I agree with you.  But look at the resumes of the teams we're competing with.  The ones with multiple good wins have some pretty terrible losses [i.e. Georgetown (something - despite the opinions of all of us - SJU does not have)].  There are several teams with only 1 top 50 win on the bubble.  Go take a look at Pitt's schedule and tell me how many top 40 wins they have (I'll give you a hint, it's none) - and they're projected as a 9 seed right now.

Even with a loss to Marquette, making the finals would mean another top 70 RPI win in the first round and likely a top 15 win in the semis.  Obviously if that semifinal win comes agains anyone not named Villanova or Creighton, we would still have to win the tourney.  If it does, we would still be in.

A win against marquette and we simply just have to make the semis and not lose to depaul/butler in all likelihood.  Is it a guarantee?  No.  But that's how I, as well as the "expert" sees it.
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goredmen

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #270 on: March 04, 2014, 03:47:47 PM »
Quote from: LoganK on March 04, 2014, 03:19:04 PM
Quote from: boo3 on March 04, 2014, 03:07:03 PM
No.. A loss to Marquette and the only way to get in is to win the tourney. Not enough quality wins.

In a normal season I agree with you.  But look at the resumes of the teams we're competing with.  The ones with multiple good wins have some pretty terrible losses [i.e. Georgetown (something - despite the opinions of all of us - SJU does not have)].  There are several teams with only 1 top 50 win on the bubble.  Go take a look at Pitt's schedule and tell me how many top 40 wins they have (I'll give you a hint, it's none) - and they're projected as a 9 seed right now.

Even with a loss to Marquette, making the finals would mean another top 70 RPI win in the first round and likely a top 15 win in the semis.  Obviously if that semifinal win comes agains anyone not named Villanova or Creighton, we would still have to win the tourney.  If it does, we would still be in.

A win against marquette and we simply just have to make the semis and not lose to depaul/butler in all likelihood.  Is it a guarantee?  No.  But that's how I, as well as the "expert" sees it.

We dont have bad losses? Penn State and Depaul arent in the RPI top 100. Those are bad losses. We have 1 win against the top 50 and only 5 against the top 100. Lets compare that to other teams on the bubble

Cal: 3 top 50 wins and 6 top 100 wins. (2 bad losses)
BYU: 3 top 5 wins and 7 top 100 wins (4 bad losses)
Baylor: 6 top 50 wins and 7 top 100 wins (1 bad loss)
Ok State: 5 top 50 wins and 8 top 100 wins (1 bad loss)
Arkansas: 4 top 50 wins and 8 top 100 wins (1 bad loss)
Oregon: 2 top 50 wins and 8 top 100 wins (1 bad loss)
Tennessee: 2 top 50 wins and 7 top 100 wins (3 bad losses)
Minnesota: 3 top 50 wins and 6 top 100 wins (2 bad losses)
Providence: 2 top 50 wins and 7 top 100 wins (1 bad loss)
Nebraska: 3 top 50 wins and 6 top 100 wins (3 bad losses)

Those are the teams ahead of us according to Lunardi. We have to leap over 3 of those teams (assuming no bids are stolen during conference tourneys which is highly unlikely), none of which have as few top 50 or top 100 wins as we do.

Then below us you have florida state who has 1 more top 50 win, same top 100 wins, and 1 less bad loss and Missouri has 1 more top 50 win and 3 more top 100 wins with 1 less bad loss.


You can believe Lunardi all you want about how 2 wins gets us in, but dont trick yourself into believing our resume is on par or better than other bubble teams because it isnt
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Gray Chudney

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #271 on: March 04, 2014, 04:06:59 PM »
Maybe it's just that we haven't been in this position for a while, but it seems that there is a hyper focus on top 50 RPI wins instead of team RPI and SOS.  To me, "Top 50" is a completely arbitrary cut off point.  Is there a big difference between RPI 49 and RPI 52?  One is worth significantly more than the other.
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LoganK

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #272 on: March 04, 2014, 04:32:07 PM »
Quote from: goredmen on March 04, 2014, 03:47:47 PM
We dont have bad losses? Penn State and Depaul arent in the RPI top 100. Those are bad losses. We have 1 win against the top 50 and only 5 against the top 100. Lets compare that to other teams on the bubble

Losing to RPI 108 on a neutral court is hardly a bad loss.  When I say bad loss, I was referring to (hence the example given) of Georgetown losing to Northeastern (226), or Cal (USC: 175), BYU (Loyala Marymount: 189...as well as two more sub 150 losses).  Baylor, OK state, and Arkansas would have to lose out to miss the tourney (OK St. might still make it).  The rest - believe it or not - have very similar profiles to ours.

There is no trickery involved, thank you.  As I said, making the BET finals would result in us having two top 10 wins, and 6 (or 7 if we beat marquette) top 70 wins.   Which is on par, or better, than many other bubble teams.

Chances are a few teams ahead of us will slip up.  If they don't, then obviously that would change things (and be highly unlikely).  But if we make it to the BET finals, there is a very good chance we make the dance.

Back to the Pitt point - how they are considered a 9 seed if it is really determined by "profiles" is beyond me.  If it's based strictly off of the eye test, then maybe.  But on paper their best win is Stanford on a neutral court.  They have our profile without the top quality win and without the two questionable losses.
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JohnnyJungle

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #273 on: March 04, 2014, 04:40:46 PM »
The Big East is getting 3 to 4 teams in.

The loss to Nova hurt for resume and Xavier was absolutely crushing as St. John's will not be the #3 seed going into BET.

Other teams around the country have won their must win games lately putting St. John's further off the bubble.
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rdstr25

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #274 on: March 04, 2014, 05:21:25 PM »
IMO, and based on Linardi continuously flip flopping 3-5 Big East teams getting in the NCAA's, he believes the NCAA committee will choose between SJU and Providence as the 4th team to get in.  This is all based on Gtown not winning its last two and minimal upsets in other Conference Tourneys. 

I want SJU to play Prov in the first round because that is where many believe, should SJU win, will get the upper hand as the deciding W for the Tie breaker.  From there, game two of the Tourney, should they win, would be the game that keeps them shielded from getting knocked out by an upset somewhere else in another conf Tournament.  Should they win game one and lose game two, they will need help but i still believe they will get in. 

Just my opinion, but I am basing it off a lot of what i am seeing from Linardi's continual picks and quotes about the Johnnies.
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LoganK

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #275 on: March 04, 2014, 07:35:42 PM »
Quote from: rdstr25 on March 04, 2014, 05:21:25 PM
IMO, and based on Linardi continuously flip flopping 3-5 Big East teams getting in the NCAA's, he believes the NCAA committee will choose between SJU and Providence as the 4th team to get in.  This is all based on Gtown not winning its last two and minimal upsets in other Conference Tourneys. 

I want SJU to play Prov in the first round because that is where many believe, should SJU win, will get the upper hand as the deciding W for the Tie breaker.  From there, game two of the Tourney, should they win, would be the game that keeps them shielded from getting knocked out by an upset somewhere else in another conf Tournament.  Should they win game one and lose game two, they will need help but i still believe they will get in. 

Just my opinion, but I am basing it off a lot of what i am seeing from Linardi's continual picks and quotes about the Johnnies.

I concur...good breakdown of the situation.
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HowCouldUBeSoHarkless

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #276 on: March 04, 2014, 09:11:58 PM »
Nothing has been breaking our way tonight.
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Marillac

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #277 on: March 04, 2014, 09:28:47 PM »
Quote from: HowCouldUBeSoHarkless on March 04, 2014, 09:11:58 PM
Nothing has been breaking our way tonight.

Terrible night.  Terrible week.  WTF.
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Marillac

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #278 on: March 04, 2014, 09:32:34 PM »
Quote from: Tha Kid on March 04, 2014, 10:38:58 AM
Quote from: Moose on March 04, 2014, 10:37:19 AM
Quote from: loughlinguy on March 04, 2014, 10:24:50 AM
There may well be a three way tie for third place in the conference. If SJU, Xavier and Providence tie, what is the tie breaker for the 3,4,5 seeds? Anyone know?

Record vs. 1st seed, 2nd seed and so on down has been the only tiebreaker I've seen after head to heads

Wouldn't we lose the head to heads in a 3 way tie with X and PC?

Yes, Xavier would win. 
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Ron Artesticles

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Re: Bracketology
« Reply #279 on: March 05, 2014, 12:14:24 AM »
Were not going to the tourney without winning the BET. Bubble teams ahead of us are getting huge wins everynoght. I'm an optimist and unfortunately upon watching the prov highlights it hit me. We MIGHT sniff a bid with a loss in the title, but even then it's not a sure thing.

To have DePaul and PSU back.....
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