Strength of Schedule

There has been much to do about the SOS of St. John's. I really don't get all the attention and emphasis that is being put on it. I don't think it's been crazy gruesome but I really don't think it's advantageous to do that. However the schedule is not nearly as weak as some media and fans have made it out to be.

I got into a little tweet and forth with Zach B today which prompted me to do some research. Below is the current SOS of every team in the Big East to date. We currently sit at 7th however the disparity between St. John's to Butler is extremely small. Additionally these rankings are a bit skewed because there are a ton of "cupcakes" within the Top 100 of SOS because they play really tough teams.

Creighton 14
Seton Hall 24
Villanova 28
Xavier 32
Butler 85
Marquette 97
St. John’s 120
Georgetown 127
Providence 131
DePaul 174

.... here we go

.... here we go

Yes?

Yes?

Nothing, just stating that this is probably going to be another 50 reply thread with the same points that have been posted a thousand times in other threads and nobody budges. But I'll bite.

I don't think it's been crazy gruesome

First, this is quite the understatement.

Have you even bothered to look at the actual schedules of the other BE teams and match them up with ours? DePaul and Georgetown have weak schedules but that's not an issue for them because they don't have NCAA Tournament aspirations. I would have no problem with this schedule and that strategy if we were in their position.

Just looking at the other schedules, Providence probably has the weakest but it's still undoubtedly superior to ours. Yes, we play the toughest game you can possibly play with @Duke, but the fact our 2nd toughest game was a neutral court game against the 13th best team in the ACC is a joke. On the flip side, after Providence's toughest game (neutral vs Michigan) they still have @Texas, @BC, neutral Wichita and neutral South Carolina. That is FAR better than our 2-5 games of neutral G Tech, @Rutgers, neutral VCU and neutral Cal. Their games 6-8 are URI, UMass and Holy Cross. Ours are Princeton, Bowling Green and Wagner. Again, theirs are better by a decent margin.

So of the 7 other BE teams that think they can make the NCAA tournament, Providence has the weakest schedule, yet their 2nd toughest game is tougher than 2nd, their 3rd is better than our 3rd, their 4th is better than our 4th and so on pretty much all the way to game 13.

It's one thing to argue whether or not scheduling a tough schedule is wise strategically speaking, but to say that our schedule isn't weak is just complete madness. Step out of the SJU bubble, look at some other team's schedules and compare them to ours. It's pathetic

When the committee evaluates our non conference schedule which wins will they be impressed with?

VCU possibly. That’s it.

Nothing, just stating that this is probably going to be another 50 reply thread with the same points that have been posted a thousand times in other threads and nobody budges. But I'll bite.

First, this is quite the understatement.

Have you even bothered to look at the actual schedules of the other BE teams and match them up with ours? DePaul and Georgetown have weak schedules but that's not an issue for them because they don't have NCAA Tournament aspirations. I would have no problem with this schedule and that strategy if we were in their position.

Just looking at the other schedules, Providence probably has the weakest but it's still undoubtedly superior to ours. Yes, we play the toughest game you can possibly play with @Duke, but the fact our 2nd toughest game was a neutral court game against the 13th best team in the ACC is a joke. On the flip side, after Providence's toughest game (neutral vs Michigan) they still have @Texas, @BC, neutral Wichita and neutral South Carolina. That is FAR better than our 2-5 games of neutral G Tech, @Rutgers, neutral VCU and neutral Cal. Their games 6-8 are URI, UMass and Holy Cross. Ours are Princeton, Bowling Green and Wagner. Again, theirs are better by a decent margin.

So of the 7 other BE teams that think they can make the NCAA tournament, Providence has the weakest schedule, yet their 2nd toughest game is tougher than 2nd, their 3rd is better than our 3rd, their 4th is better than our 4th and so on pretty much all the way to game 13.

It's one thing to argue whether or not scheduling a tough schedule is wise strategically speaking, but to say that our schedule isn't weak is just complete madness. Step out of the SJU bubble, look at some other team's schedules and compare them to ours. It's pathetic

So as of right now to present date our schedule is in top third of the country and we play in arguably a top 5 conference. What do you want?

Honestly I’m asking because I’m unsure of the issue.

When the committee evaluates our non conference schedule which wins will they be impressed with?

VCU possibly. That’s it.

No. Road win against Big 10 Rutgers.

Neutral court wins over Cal, VCU, GT

No. Road win against Big 10 Rutgers.

Neutral court wins over Cal, VCU, GT

A road win over the by far worst team in big 10, and neutral court wins over one of the worst power 6 teams in the country, a middle of the pack A10 team in another down year for the A10 and the 13th best team in the ACC. Those will impress absolutely nobody

So as of right now to present date our schedule is in top third of the country and we play in arguably a top 5 conference. What do you want?

Honestly I’m asking because I’m unsure of the issue.

Key words: to present date. We play 5 games over the next 3.5 weeks, none of them against a top 150 team and 3 of them are around 300 or worse.

What should be wanted is playing multiple games where if you win it is a pretty big resume booster. We only have one of those games and we'll be a 15-20 point underdog in that game.

I'm not asking to play Kansas and Gonzaga and Kentucky and Duke. Just a couple more games against other teams that are expected to make the tournament. Wins over teams in 25-50 range definitely help. Creighton's win over Clemson is solid and they still have @Nebraska and @Oklahoma. Butler has a win over Florida, Marquette has wins over Louisville and Kansas State. There needs to be a few of those level of games on the schedule, and yeah you'll lose some but those wins will help more than the losses hurt. Whereas losing to Georgia Tech, VCU, Rutgers or Cal would hurt way more than beating them would help, especially if you don't pick up good wins elsewhere

When the committee evaluates our non conference schedule which wins will they be impressed with?

VCU possibly. That’s it.

You make the mistake of looking at our OOC by individual opponents and not in aggregate. Cal and Ga Tech are likely bound for the bottom third of their conferences, but they are still high majors with the ability to beat anyone on any given night.  They will both score upsets before the year is over.  We beat the crap out of Big Ten Rutgers on the road and they beat a very solid Miami team on the road.  We beat VCU on a neutral court and I thought VCU was better than us. They should be in the mix for a bid or at least a spot near on the bubble.  We also have Duke remaining.

After that we have two chances to beat Nova, Marquette, and Creighton for quality wins plus whoever else rises to the top of the Big East. 

What if our resume is read like this in March:

St. John's....they went 13-0 out of conference trouncing Rutgers on the Road in the Big East-Big Ten showdown, they beat Duke at Cameron, and also beat Cal, VCU, and Ga Tech away from home.  In confernce they were 10-8 with wins over Nova, Creigthon, and Marquette. 

No sane person would question that resume.

So as of right now to present date our schedule is in top third of the country and we play in arguably a top 5 conference. What do you want?

Honestly I’m asking because I’m unsure of the issue.

You mentioned it yourself, but to this point the SOS is still skewed.  At the end of our season, our non-conf schedule will likely not be in the top 200, and that's including the Duke game.  What kills it isn't that our other top games are against Rutgers, GT, and VCU, but that the bottom teams are REALLY bad teams (Loyola, UMES, MSM, St Francis, Sacred Heart are all sub 290 on KP with Wagner right behind at 240).

There's also the issue of what site you use for the SOS.  I've seen anywhere from 80-310.  CBS and RealTimeRPI have it in the 120-150 range, BPI and KP are around 300.  Again, this will level off as the season goes on, but I expect the BPI and KP numbers will more closely reflect the final tallies.

With that said, while it is a weak schedule, it is not necessarily a bad schedule.  Winning the next 5 (we will be heavy favorites in all) will put us at 12-0 and will more importantly mean we will end the season with 0 bad losses.  A respectable showing in the BE - even in a "down" year - will get us a spot in the dance.

No. Road win against Big 10 Rutgers.

Neutral court wins over Cal, VCU, GT

Should Rutgers go on to have a good season it would be their first good season in what 25 years?

We are taking credit for beating terrible teams that were good ages ago. We do not deserve credit for this.

No. Road win against Big 10 Rutgers.

Neutral court wins over Cal, VCU, GT

All bottom of the barrel teams except VCU that do nothing to elevate our resume. This will be proven out over the next 3 months. Conference affiliation does not make a quality win.

You mentioned it yourself, but to this point the SOS is still skewed.  At the end of our season, our non-conf schedule will likely not be in the top 200, and that's including the Duke game.  What kills it isn't that our other top games are against Rutgers, GT, and VCU, but that the bottom teams are REALLY bad teams (Loyola, UMES, MSM, St Francis, Sacred Heart are all sub 290 on KP with Wagner right behind at 240).

There's also the issue of what site you use for the SOS.  I've seen anywhere from 80-310.  CBS and RealTimeRPI have it in the 120-150 range, BPI and KP are around 300.  Again, this will level off as the season goes on, but I expect the BPI and KP numbers will more closely reflect the final tallies.

With that said, while it is a weak schedule, it is not necessarily a bad schedule.  Winning the next 5 (we will be heavy favorites in all) will put us at 12-0 and will more importantly mean we will end the season with 0 bad losses.  A respectable showing in the BE - even in a "down" year - will get us a spot in the dance.

You're acting like we're a CAA team and need a super strong OOC schedule in order to qualify for the dance because our conference schedule won't move the needle.

We're in the Big East and that schedule will peg us to be top 40 by default. The job is get wins and avoid bad losses which so far we have.

When Cal was put on the schedule you would have thought that would have been a tougher game. You can't predict them having a down year, coaching changes, etc. Regardless the schedule imo is not as bad as some have made it out to be.

You're acting like we're a CAA team and need a super strong OOC schedule in order to qualify for the dance because our conference schedule won't move the needle.

We're in the Big East and that schedule will peg us to be top 40 by default. The job is get wins and avoid bad losses which so far we have.

When Cal was put on the schedule you would have thought that would have been a tougher game. You can't predict them having a down year, coaching changes, etc. Regardless the schedule imo is not as bad as some have made it out to be.

I'm surprised how wrong you are here Dave. First off, if the goal for BE teams is to just pick up easy Ws, why does every single other good BE team have a much better schedule than us this year? Why is Marquette, Butler, Creighton, Xavier, Seton Hall etc all going out of their way to play far better games than us? Why wouldn't they just load up on cupcakes also, get their 12-13 OOC wins and move on to the BE schedule? They don't do that because it's not the right strategy.

As for Cal, there is no reason to think that would have been a tougher game that it turned it to be when the schedule was made. Remember, college basketball isn't like college football in terms of when scheduling is done. We agreed to that Barclays tournament last year after it was clear Cal would be in a multi-year rebuild

Nothing, just stating that this is probably going to be another 50 reply thread with the same points that have been posted a thousand times in other threads and nobody budges. But I'll bite.

First, this is quite the understatement.

Have you even bothered to look at the actual schedules of the other BE teams and match them up with ours? DePaul and Georgetown have weak schedules but that's not an issue for them because they don't have NCAA Tournament aspirations. I would have no problem with this schedule and that strategy if we were in their position.

Just looking at the other schedules, Providence probably has the weakest but it's still undoubtedly superior to ours. Yes, we play the toughest game you can possibly play with @Duke, but the fact our 2nd toughest game was a neutral court game against the 13th best team in the ACC is a joke. On the flip side, after Providence's toughest game (neutral vs Michigan) they still have @Texas, @BC, neutral Wichita and neutral South Carolina. That is FAR better than our 2-5 games of neutral G Tech, @Rutgers, neutral VCU and neutral Cal. Their games 6-8 are URI, UMass and Holy Cross. Ours are Princeton, Bowling Green and Wagner. Again, theirs are better by a decent margin.

So of the 7 other BE teams that think they can make the NCAA tournament, Providence has the weakest schedule, yet their 2nd toughest game is tougher than 2nd, their 3rd is better than our 3rd, their 4th is better than our 4th and so on pretty much all the way to game 13.

It's one thing to argue whether or not scheduling a tough schedule is wise strategically speaking, but to say that our schedule isn't weak is just complete madness. Step out of the SJU bubble, look at some other team's schedules and compare them to ours. It's pathetic

I'm getting tired of people whining about the schedule.  Unless you have a crystal ball you cant predict two years ahead of time how good or bad a scheduled team is going to be, particularly in tournaments where you may not know who you will be playing until it is fully booked.  Unless you book a top ten program it is always somewhat of a coinflip.  GT in the Ewing years always booked cupcakes early and they did just fine.  If you are booking some games against good conference members and some against cupcakes you are doing your job right.  Need cupcakes to see how the bench performs and instill additional confidence particularly at SJUs level .....see Duke playing Stetson for example. 

I'm getting tired of people whining about the schedule.  Unless you have a crystal ball you cant predict two years ahead of time how good or bad a scheduled team is going to be, particularly in tournaments where you may not know who you will be playing until it is fully booked.  Unless you book a top ten program it is always somewhat of a coinflip.  GT in the Ewing years always booked cupcakes early and they did just fine.  If you are booking some games against good conference members and some against cupcakes you are doing your job right.  Need cupcakes to see how the bench performs and instill additional confidence particularly at SJUs level .....see Duke playing Stetson for example. 

Another person who has completely no idea what my point is. This is why these threads are useless. I've said multiple times I have no problem with a few cupcakes, but we have way too many of them on the schedule.

The schedule is typically done in the spring. In the spring you generally have a good idea of how good teams will be. Sure, teams will surprise in both directions, but you have a general idea. This spring, it was clear Cal would be awful. So, if Cal was scheduled over a year ago with the idea they'd be good and it turns out it looks like they'll be awful, then you have to go out and find a game against a good team to make up for it. Instead, Cal is now the 4th best team on our schedule when they stink.

Another person who has completely no idea what my point is. This is why these threads are useless.

A couple hundred more posts by you and I’m sure people will start coming around

Another person who has completely no idea what my point is. This is why these threads are useless. I've said multiple times I have no problem with a few cupcakes, but we have way too many of them on the schedule.

The schedule is typically done in the spring. In the spring you generally have a good idea of how good teams will be. Sure, teams will surprise in both directions, but you have a general idea. This spring, it was clear Cal would be awful. So, if Cal was scheduled over a year ago with the idea they'd be good and it turns out it looks like they'll be awful, then you have to go out and find a game against a good team to make up for it. Instead, Cal is now the 4th best team on our schedule when they stink.

A good deal of scheduling is done 2 years ahead of time, but even during the prior spring everything is uncertain.(look at us last year)  And I know exactly what your point is, to
pick a topic and be negative.  OOC is somewhat like spring training, lets see what we have.  Also, an opponent must want to play us and right now, with Ponds who beat Duke by himself, we are a dangerous underdog.

A couple hundred more posts by you and I’m sure people will start coming around

It wasn't me that started this thread after it's already been beaten to death in every direction