Bracketology

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 10:12:44 AM

Quote from: newsman13 on March 03, 2014, 09:41:52 AM

We're 19-11, which means we have to suck it up and win our final four games. 

A team with a dozen losses in a weakened conference (insert reply here Desco) has a snowball's chance in hell of getting into the big dance. 

On the positive side, I think we have a good chance of getting all four.  If we don't, we deserve the NIT...

So a team that ends the season 13-4 in its last 17 conference games (including tourney) including 2 wins against top 10 teams, finishing potentially 4th in conference reg season, losing in the conf. finals, and with 22 wins is not going to make it?  Add a top 30 SOS to boot?

Uh huh....

Maybe not.  Depends on what other bubble teams do.  Unless we win the BE, other teams control our destiny. 

We won't even be in a play-in game if we win our next 3 games - will be a 10-11 seed.

Quote from: DFF6 on March 03, 2014, 10:52:13 AM

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 10:12:44 AM

Quote from: newsman13 on March 03, 2014, 09:41:52 AM

We're 19-11, which means we have to suck it up and win our final four games. 

A team with a dozen losses in a weakened conference (insert reply here Desco) has a snowball's chance in hell of getting into the big dance. 

On the positive side, I think we have a good chance of getting all four.  If we don't, we deserve the NIT...

So a team that ends the season 13-4 in its last 17 conference games (including tourney) including 2 wins against top 10 teams, finishing potentially 4th in conference reg season, losing in the conf. finals, and with 22 wins is not going to make it?  Add a top 30 SOS to boot?

Uh huh....

Maybe not.  Depends on what other bubble teams do.  Unless we win the BE, other teams control our destiny. 

We won't even be in a play-in game if we win our next 3 games - will be a 10-11 seed.

Not so sure about that.

The only way St. John's controls their own destiny at this point is winning the BET. There are a lot of other teams with more impressive wins/seasons than SJU. Also St. John's is currently 6th place out of 10 teams in conference. Just not good enough.

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 11:23:40 AM

Quote from: DFF6 on March 03, 2014, 10:52:13 AM

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 10:12:44 AM

Quote from: newsman13 on March 03, 2014, 09:41:52 AM

We're 19-11, which means we have to suck it up and win our final four games. 

A team with a dozen losses in a weakened conference (insert reply here Desco) has a snowball's chance in hell of getting into the big dance. 

On the positive side, I think we have a good chance of getting all four.  If we don't, we deserve the NIT...

So a team that ends the season 13-4 in its last 17 conference games (including tourney) including 2 wins against top 10 teams, finishing potentially 4th in conference reg season, losing in the conf. finals, and with 22 wins is not going to make it?  Add a top 30 SOS to boot?

Uh huh....

Maybe not.  Depends on what other bubble teams do.  Unless we win the BE, other teams control our destiny. 

We won't even be in a play-in game if we win our next 3 games - will be a 10-11 seed.

Not so sure about that.

The only way St. John's controls their own destiny at this point is winning the BET. There are a lot of other teams with more impressive wins/seasons than SJU. Also St. John's is currently 6th place out of 10 teams in conference. Just not good enough.

And if Marquette beats Prov and SJU beats Marquette they are 4th, no?

But teams ahead of us in conference have to lose because they play us or each other.....and if not have to play Creight and Nova.....we beat MARQ we hare likely to get to fourth place.  Of course, we have to take care of business.  I worry about Gardner.

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 11:23:40 AM

Quote from: DFF6 on March 03, 2014, 10:52:13 AM

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 10:12:44 AM

Quote from: newsman13 on March 03, 2014, 09:41:52 AM

We're 19-11, which means we have to suck it up and win our final four games. 

A team with a dozen losses in a weakened conference (insert reply here Desco) has a snowball's chance in hell of getting into the big dance. 

On the positive side, I think we have a good chance of getting all four.  If we don't, we deserve the NIT...

So a team that ends the season 13-4 in its last 17 conference games (including tourney) including 2 wins against top 10 teams, finishing potentially 4th in conference reg season, losing in the conf. finals, and with 22 wins is not going to make it?  Add a top 30 SOS to boot?

Uh huh....

Maybe not.  Depends on what other bubble teams do.  Unless we win the BE, other teams control our destiny. 

We won't even be in a play-in game if we win our next 3 games - will be a 10-11 seed.

Not so sure about that.

The only way St. John's controls their own destiny at this point is winning the BET. There are a lot of other teams with more impressive wins/seasons than SJU. Also St. John's is currently 6th place out of 10 teams in conference. Just not good enough.

It looks like the Xavier game will be the one we'd like to have back most.  Beast tourney being equal in advancement, they might be a team to squeak ahead of us.  And they're not 65-68 yet either.

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 11:23:40 AM

Quote from: DFF6 on March 03, 2014, 10:52:13 AM

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 10:12:44 AM

Quote from: newsman13 on March 03, 2014, 09:41:52 AM

We're 19-11, which means we have to suck it up and win our final four games. 

A team with a dozen losses in a weakened conference (insert reply here Desco) has a snowball's chance in hell of getting into the big dance. 

On the positive side, I think we have a good chance of getting all four.  If we don't, we deserve the NIT...

So a team that ends the season 13-4 in its last 17 conference games (including tourney) including 2 wins against top 10 teams, finishing potentially 4th in conference reg season, losing in the conf. finals, and with 22 wins is not going to make it?  Add a top 30 SOS to boot?

Uh huh....

Maybe not.  Depends on what other bubble teams do.  Unless we win the BE, other teams control our destiny. 

We won't even be in a play-in game if we win our next 3 games - will be a 10-11 seed.

Not so sure about that.

The only way St. John's controls their own destiny at this point is winning the BET. There are a lot of other teams with more impressive wins/seasons than SJU. Also St. John's is currently 6th place out of 10 teams in conference. Just not good enough.

If we beat Marquette, we are at worst 5th.  If Providence loses to Marquette, then we are 4th, or Creighton, then we are tied for 4th (not sure what tiebreaker is with Prov after head to head?)

So 6th isn't accurate.  Plus we'd be adding likely 2 more top 10-15 teams to our SOS if we lost in BE final, including a win over one.  I stand firm in my belief we are IN and not in a play in game if we win next 3.

Latest Bracketology (March 3) has us in first four out, with Providence.  (Looks like they are first out with us third out).   Team to watch the next 2 weeks:

Last Four Byes
California
BYU
Baylor
Oklahoma State

Last Four In
Arkansas
Oregon
Tennessee
Minnesota

First Four Out
Providence
Nebrasksa
St. John's
Florida State

Next Four Out
Missouri
Dayton
Georgetown
Louisiana Tech

Quote from: Dave on March 03, 2014, 11:40:36 AM

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 11:23:40 AM

Quote from: DFF6 on March 03, 2014, 10:52:13 AM

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 10:12:44 AM

Quote from: newsman13 on March 03, 2014, 09:41:52 AM

We're 19-11, which means we have to suck it up and win our final four games. 

A team with a dozen losses in a weakened conference (insert reply here Desco) has a snowball's chance in hell of getting into the big dance. 

On the positive side, I think we have a good chance of getting all four.  If we don't, we deserve the NIT...

So a team that ends the season 13-4 in its last 17 conference games (including tourney) including 2 wins against top 10 teams, finishing potentially 4th in conference reg season, losing in the conf. finals, and with 22 wins is not going to make it?  Add a top 30 SOS to boot?

Uh huh....

Maybe not.  Depends on what other bubble teams do.  Unless we win the BE, other teams control our destiny. 

We won't even be in a play-in game if we win our next 3 games - will be a 10-11 seed.

Not so sure about that.

The only way St. John's controls their own destiny at this point is winning the BET. There are a lot of other teams with more impressive wins/seasons than SJU. Also St. John's is currently 6th place out of 10 teams in conference. Just not good enough.

If we beat Marquette, we are at worst 5th.  If Providence loses to Marquette, then we are 4th, or Creighton, then we are tied for 4th (not sure what tiebreaker is with Prov after head to head?)

So 6th isn't accurate.  Plus we'd be adding likely 2 more top 10-15 teams to our SOS if we lost in BE final, including a win over one.  I stand firm in my belief we are IN and not in a play in game if we win next 3.

Someone mentioned somewhere tie breakers is record vs. 1st place, and so on down.

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 11:55:17 AM

Quote from: Dave on March 03, 2014, 11:40:36 AM

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 11:23:40 AM

Quote from: DFF6 on March 03, 2014, 10:52:13 AM

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 10:12:44 AM

Quote from: newsman13 on March 03, 2014, 09:41:52 AM

We're 19-11, which means we have to suck it up and win our final four games. 

A team with a dozen losses in a weakened conference (insert reply here Desco) has a snowball's chance in hell of getting into the big dance. 

On the positive side, I think we have a good chance of getting all four.  If we don't, we deserve the NIT...

So a team that ends the season 13-4 in its last 17 conference games (including tourney) including 2 wins against top 10 teams, finishing potentially 4th in conference reg season, losing in the conf. finals, and with 22 wins is not going to make it?  Add a top 30 SOS to boot?

Uh huh....

Maybe not.  Depends on what other bubble teams do.  Unless we win the BE, other teams control our destiny. 

We won't even be in a play-in game if we win our next 3 games - will be a 10-11 seed.

Not so sure about that.

The only way St. John's controls their own destiny at this point is winning the BET. There are a lot of other teams with more impressive wins/seasons than SJU. Also St. John's is currently 6th place out of 10 teams in conference. Just not good enough.

If we beat Marquette, we are at worst 5th.  If Providence loses to Marquette, then we are 4th, or Creighton, then we are tied for 4th (not sure what tiebreaker is with Prov after head to head?)

So 6th isn't accurate.  Plus we'd be adding likely 2 more top 10-15 teams to our SOS if we lost in BE final, including a win over one.  I stand firm in my belief we are IN and not in a play in game if we win next 3.

Someone mentioned somewhere tie breakers is record vs. 1st place, and so on down.

In which case we'd be 5th since they beat Xavier once.

Quote from: Dave on March 03, 2014, 11:40:36 AM

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 11:23:40 AM

Quote from: DFF6 on March 03, 2014, 10:52:13 AM

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 03, 2014, 10:12:44 AM

Quote from: newsman13 on March 03, 2014, 09:41:52 AM

We're 19-11, which means we have to suck it up and win our final four games. 

A team with a dozen losses in a weakened conference (insert reply here Desco) has a snowball's chance in hell of getting into the big dance. 

On the positive side, I think we have a good chance of getting all four.  If we don't, we deserve the NIT...

So a team that ends the season 13-4 in its last 17 conference games (including tourney) including 2 wins against top 10 teams, finishing potentially 4th in conference reg season, losing in the conf. finals, and with 22 wins is not going to make it?  Add a top 30 SOS to boot?

Uh huh....

Maybe not.  Depends on what other bubble teams do.  Unless we win the BE, other teams control our destiny. 

We won't even be in a play-in game if we win our next 3 games - will be a 10-11 seed.

Not so sure about that.

The only way St. John's controls their own destiny at this point is winning the BET. There are a lot of other teams with more impressive wins/seasons than SJU. Also St. John's is currently 6th place out of 10 teams in conference. Just not good enough.

If we beat Marquette, we are at worst 5th.  If Providence loses to Marquette, then we are 4th, or Creighton, then we are tied for 4th (not sure what tiebreaker is with Prov after head to head?)

So 6th isn't accurate.  Plus we'd be adding likely 2 more top 10-15 teams to our SOS if we lost in BE final, including a win over one.  I stand firm in my belief we are IN and not in a play in game if we win next 3.

I hope you're right Kid, but as Dave and others have said, we have the wrong resume for a tight bubble competition for an at-large bid.  For example, if we had Georgetown's top 50 wins with our same record, then I'd share your optimism.

@KieranDarcy: @ESPNLunardi gives St. John's (#SJUBB) a 40 percent chance to earn an at-large bid: http://t.co/N7Ig1wyoTu via @espncbb

Here are the remaining games for Lunardi's bubble teams.

Cal- Wed. vs Utah, Sat. @ Colorado
BYU- Sat. @ San Diego
Baylor- Tues. vs. Iowa St., Sat. @ Kansas St.
Oklahoma St.- Mon. vs. Kansas St., Sat. @ Iowa St.

Arkansas - Wed. vs. Ole Miss, Sat. @ Alabama
Oregon - Tues. vs. Arizona St., Sat. vs. Arizona
Tennessee- Wed. @ Auburn, Sat. vs. Missouri
Minnesota- Sat. vs. Penn St

=============

Providence- Tue. vs. Marquette, Sat. @ Creighton
Nebraska- Wed. @ Indiana, Sun. vs. Wisconsin
Florida St.- Tues. @ Boston College, Sun. vs. Syracuse

Missouri- Wed. vs. Texas A&M, Sat. @ Tennessee
Dayton- Wed. @ St. Louis, Sat. vs. Richmond
Georgetown- Tues. vs. Creighton, Sat. @ Villanova
Louisiana Tech- Thurs. @ Rice

This don't mean squat unless we beat Marquette.  Eye on the Prize son!

Good to see the people that thought all we needed was two more wins to get in have come to their senses

@KieranDarcy: Just checked with @ESPNLunardi -- at this point, he thinks St. John's could lose at Marquette and still get an at-large bid. #SJUBB

@KieranDarcy: Red Storm would need to make Big East championship game, in that case. Beat fellow bubble team in quarters, Creighton/Nova in semis #SJUBB

Good to see the people that thought all we needed was two more wins to get in have come to their senses

@KieranDarcy: Just checked with @ESPNLunardi -- at this point, he thinks St. John's could lose at Marquette and still get an at-large bid. #SJUBB

@KieranDarcy: Red Storm would need to make Big East championship game, in that case. Beat fellow bubble team in quarters, Creighton/Nova in semis #SJUBB

I guess Joe Lunardi needs to come to his senses

So is 3rd place impossible for us because of tie breakers. Saw that X was losing big to Seton Hall and thought it might help. Is 4th the best we can do at his point?

Quote from: goredmen on March 03, 2014, 02:12:58 PM

Good to see the people that thought all we needed was two more wins to get in have come to their senses

Quote from: paultzman on March 03, 2014, 08:02:49 PM

@KieranDarcy: Just checked with @ESPNLunardi -- at this point, he thinks St. John's could lose at Marquette and still get an at-large bid. #SJUBB

@KieranDarcy: Red Storm would need to make Big East championship game, in that case. Beat fellow bubble team in quarters, Creighton/Nova in semis #SJUBB

I guess Joe Lunardi needs to come to his senses

I stand by my belief that only 2 wins doesn't even have us sniffing the tournament on selection Sunday. Lunardi is good at projecting the field 2 hours before the selection show airs. Don't see how going 2-2 would launch us over multiple teams that have just as many chances to pick up big wins as we do

Quote from: LoganK on March 03, 2014, 08:08:58 PM

Quote from: goredmen on March 03, 2014, 02:12:58 PM

Good to see the people that thought all we needed was two more wins to get in have come to their senses

Quote from: paultzman on March 03, 2014, 08:02:49 PM

@KieranDarcy: Just checked with @ESPNLunardi -- at this point, he thinks St. John's could lose at Marquette and still get an at-large bid. #SJUBB

@KieranDarcy: Red Storm would need to make Big East championship game, in that case. Beat fellow bubble team in quarters, Creighton/Nova in semis #SJUBB

I guess Joe Lunardi needs to come to his senses

I stand by my belief that only 2 wins doesn't even have us sniffing the tournament on selection Sunday. Lunardi is good at projecting the field 2 hours before the selection show airs. Don't see how going 2-2 would launch us over multiple teams that have just as many chances to pick up big wins as we do

For the sake of the team, I hope Lunardi has a better track record than you do picking the field.

Quote from: LoganK on March 03, 2014, 08:08:58 PM

Quote from: goredmen on March 03, 2014, 02:12:58 PM

Good to see the people that thought all we needed was two more wins to get in have come to their senses

Quote from: paultzman on March 03, 2014, 08:02:49 PM

@KieranDarcy: Just checked with @ESPNLunardi -- at this point, he thinks St. John's could lose at Marquette and still get an at-large bid. #SJUBB

@KieranDarcy: Red Storm would need to make Big East championship game, in that case. Beat fellow bubble team in quarters, Creighton/Nova in semis #SJUBB

I guess Joe Lunardi needs to come to his senses

I stand by my belief that only 2 wins doesn't even have us sniffing the tournament on selection Sunday. Lunardi is good at projecting the field 2 hours before the selection show airs. Don't see how going 2-2 would launch us over multiple teams that have just as many chances to pick up big wins as we do

In reality no one knows because no one knows who we'll play in the BET, and how other bubble teams will fare down the stretch.