Bracketology

For a while now the number you hear on the board is 22. Winning three in a row before taking a hit in the finals gets us to 22 and brings the down the stretch # to 13-4. If that don't get us in, then we been out since 0 and 5.

Isn't this fun?

Quote from: bball purist on March 06, 2014, 10:58:54 PM

Quote from: boo3 on March 06, 2014, 01:57:33 PM

Need to win the BE tournament.   I don't see how just potentially beating Xavier , 1 out of 3 chances, and Nova alone, gets it done. 

We dug a huge hole early in the season that I can't see us getting out of without running the table..  I get all the "what ifs", but , lets be honest here....

Being honest boo, I sincerely believe the 65-68 team deal is a disaster.  This year, and future years, there will be multiple teams making the tourney with below .500 conference records.  That used to be the red alert towards most teams that got in under the 64 team tourney.  Now, there's no shame.  It mirrors some of the colleges lowering their standards to keep the tuition bankroll coming in.  I don't like it.  In conclusion, there's still a shot winning next 3 because of all the other middling teams messing up their destiny...

It sure is better than that 96 team tournament that the NCAA and the coaches wanted to go to a couple years ago

wow, what an implosion that would have been.  A watered down tourney product is not the way to go.  As of today's Palm update, there's a 6th place 9-8 SEC team (Mizzou), a 6th place 8-9 Big12 team (Baylor), a 7th place 9-8 Pac12 team (Stanford), a 7th place 8-9 Big 12 team (OkSt).  Yes, Palm digs in to all the top 50 records, blah blah blah, but the slew of middling teams tells me there's some teams we still can leap frog with the 2 game tourney wins.  And why is GTown even on the 1st four out as bad as they've played this season?

Lunardi now has us in first four out (fourth)

Lunardi now has us in first four out (fourth)

That's why  a 1-1 record will not do. Must win at least 2 in BET.

I think it lines up well for us if we are to get a bid.  We have to beat PC.  I think we are competing with each other for the same slot.  Must win for us more than for them.  Then we would play Nova and have a chance for a quality win.  That should guarantee us a bid.

I've said it before.  I think we match up well with Nova.  They have proven that they are a very good team but they don't really scare me on the interior (although Ochefu has become a pretty good player).  If we can control their wings and backcourt, we can beat them.  If they are lighting it up from 3, then we are in trouble.

I would love to see Creighton in the Finals.  Hope we can get that far.

Pomeroy's analysis rates the Big East teams as follows:

Nova    6
Creighton 9
SJU 38
X 43
G-town 48
Providence 53
Marquette 58

To bad Pomeroy doesn't run the tournament, and fortunately Lunardi does not either.

Quote from: Tha Kid on March 09, 2014, 01:54:14 AM

Lunardi now has us in first four out (fourth)

That's why  a 1-1 record will not do. Must win at least 2 in BET.

Always agreed w that.  I just didnt think we needed to win BET title.

Rothstein really thinks St Johns still needs to win the BE Tourney to make it to the NCAA Tourney. I have no idea what he's watching....you beat Prvodience and a potential no.1 seed in Nova, how isn't that enough?

Rothstein really thinks St Johns still needs to win the BE Tourney to make it to the NCAA Tourney. I have no idea what he's watching....you beat Prvodience and a potential no.1 seed in Nova, how isn't that enough?

Thats why espn doesnt pay him the big bucks as a bracketologist!  I think gtown went up just from losing to nova...a win over nova and i think we are on the bubble of bye vs dayton...not in or out...

Quote from: Blindsided on March 09, 2014, 07:15:17 AM

Rothstein really thinks St Johns still needs to win the BE Tourney to make it to the NCAA Tourney. I have no idea what he's watching....you beat Prvodience and a potential no.1 seed in Nova, how isn't that enough?

Thats why espn doesnt pay him the big bucks as a bracketologist!  I think gtown went up just from losing to nova...a win over nova and i think we are on the bubble of bye vs dayton...not in or out...

I think two wins gets us off the final four in if teams like Arkansas and Tenn don't fair well in their tourneys. Then you have the clustermess of the Pac 12 tourney where teams will start to get shredded out there like maybe Stanford.

If we reach the BE Tourney final, we'd be playing for better seeding, especially if vs Creighton or Xavier. We'd probably be a 12 seed but in the Midwest or South regions if we don't win the BE Tourney. A win throughout the tourney and I don't see how we'd be denied of an 11 seed.

Rothstein really thinks St Johns still needs to win the BE Tourney to make it to the NCAA Tourney. I have no idea what he's watching....you beat Prvodience and a potential no.1 seed in Nova, how isn't that enough?

Compare to other teams outside of Big East. So many other programs have more top 50 wins with more overall wins.

Quote from: Blindsided on March 09, 2014, 07:15:17 AM

Rothstein really thinks St Johns still needs to win the BE Tourney to make it to the NCAA Tourney. I have no idea what he's watching....you beat Prvodience and a potential no.1 seed in Nova, how isn't that enough?

Compare to other teams outside of Big East. So many other programs have more top 50 wins with more overall wins.

What have those teams done down the stretch?  This is one key factor that favors the Johnnies.  Although, recently Nova was putrid down the stretch and still earned a bid. 

The one factor that mostly comes into play in these inherently flawed processes is representation on the selection committee.  I read somewhere that the Big East has none and that the North Eastern region of the US is not well represented.  If that's true then we could get screwed if we don't win the BET.

 

Here is the selection committee.  We're screwed.  Hope CBS has some pull and wants the NYC market.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketball_tournament_selection_process#Current_men.27s_committee_members

Quote from: Dave on March 09, 2014, 01:01:26 PM

Quote from: Blindsided on March 09, 2014, 07:15:17 AM

Rothstein really thinks St Johns still needs to win the BE Tourney to make it to the NCAA Tourney. I have no idea what he's watching....you beat Prvodience and a potential no.1 seed in Nova, how isn't that enough?

Compare to other teams outside of Big East. So many other programs have more top 50 wins with more overall wins.

What have those teams done down the stretch?  This is one key factor that favors the Johnnies.  Although, recently Nova was putrid down the stretch and still earned a bid. 

The one factor that mostly comes into play in these inherently flawed processes is representation on the selection committee.  I read somewhere that the Big East has none and that the North Eastern region of the US is not well represented.  If that's true then we could get screwed if we don't win the BET.

 

Recent play is no longer a criteria for selection committee.

Quote from: Tiznow on March 09, 2014, 01:17:41 PM

Quote from: Dave on March 09, 2014, 01:01:26 PM

Quote from: Blindsided on March 09, 2014, 07:15:17 AM

Rothstein really thinks St Johns still needs to win the BE Tourney to make it to the NCAA Tourney. I have no idea what he's watching....you beat Prvodience and a potential no.1 seed in Nova, how isn't that enough?

Compare to other teams outside of Big East. So many other programs have more top 50 wins with more overall wins.

What have those teams done down the stretch?  This is one key factor that favors the Johnnies.  Although, recently Nova was putrid down the stretch and still earned a bid. 

The one factor that mostly comes into play in these inherently flawed processes is representation on the selection committee.  I read somewhere that the Big East has none and that the North Eastern region of the US is not well represented.  If that's true then we could get screwed if we don't win the BET.

 

Recent play is no longer a criteria for selection committee.

Thanks for the info.  I suppose that results in a stronger NIT field. 

Quote from: Blindsided on March 09, 2014, 07:15:17 AM

Rothstein really thinks St Johns still needs to win the BE Tourney to make it to the NCAA Tourney. I have no idea what he's watching....you beat Prvodience and a potential no.1 seed in Nova, how isn't that enough?

Compare to other teams outside of Big East. So many other programs have more top 50 wins with more overall wins.

So many have really bad losses as well.  Keep in mind Villanova has only 5 top 50 wins this year.  And they are considered a solid chance to be a no. 1 seed.

For most of this year Creighton and Nova were the ONLY opportunities at top 50 wins for ANY BE team.

Having said that it is a problem for SJU.  But I believe getting a win against PC on Thursday goes a long way and then beating a NOVA could really put them over the top.

Quote from: Dave on March 09, 2014, 01:01:26 PM

Quote from: Blindsided on March 09, 2014, 07:15:17 AM

Rothstein really thinks St Johns still needs to win the BE Tourney to make it to the NCAA Tourney. I have no idea what he's watching....you beat Prvodience and a potential no.1 seed in Nova, how isn't that enough?

Compare to other teams outside of Big East. So many other programs have more top 50 wins with more overall wins.

So many have really bad losses as well.  Keep in mind Villanova has only 5 top 50 wins this year.  And they are considered a solid chance to be a no. 1 seed.

For most of this year Creighton and Nova were the ONLY opportunities at top 50 wins for ANY BE team.

Having said that it is a problem for SJU.  But I believe getting a win against PC on Thursday goes a long way and then beating a NOVA could really put them over the top.

There is a chance that only 3 Big East teams get in.

If St. John's beat DePaul and/or Xavier earlier in the season the only talk would be what seed St. John's would be.

Quote from: fordham96 on March 09, 2014, 02:04:31 PM

Quote from: Dave on March 09, 2014, 01:01:26 PM

Quote from: Blindsided on March 09, 2014, 07:15:17 AM

Rothstein really thinks St Johns still needs to win the BE Tourney to make it to the NCAA Tourney. I have no idea what he's watching....you beat Prvodience and a potential no.1 seed in Nova, how isn't that enough?

Compare to other teams outside of Big East. So many other programs have more top 50 wins with more overall wins.

So many have really bad losses as well.  Keep in mind Villanova has only 5 top 50 wins this year.  And they are considered a solid chance to be a no. 1 seed.

For most of this year Creighton and Nova were the ONLY opportunities at top 50 wins for ANY BE team.

Having said that it is a problem for SJU.  But I believe getting a win against PC on Thursday goes a long way and then beating a NOVA could really put them over the top.

There is a chance that only 3 Big East teams get in.

If St. John's beat DePaul and/or Xavier earlier in the season the only talk would be what seed St. John's would be.

Agreed.  But I am saying the top 50 wins is a bit misleading as important as it is.  Villanova has exactly 5 top 50 wins and is 0-2 against Creighton the only other top 50 team in the league and yet a school with exactly 5 top 50 wins is seriously considered to be a candidate for a no. 1 seed.  In other words one of the top 4 teams in the country.

I mean Arkansas got DRILLED on the road at a bad Alabama team yesterday.  To me those types of losses are bad.

Assuming we beat Providence and Nova on our way to the finals, we'll have an additional top 50 win and a close to top 50 win.  Might as well win the whole darn thing, but if we beat Providence and Nova, we are in!