I think people have brought up a lot of good indicators of why we will/won't win on Saturday... Obekpa, good D on Achadiacopamus, D'angelo hitting his shots.. etc.
But I think, at the risk of over-simplifying things, there are two items we should be looking for on Saturday afternoon:
1) Are we making the extra pass? Or are we settling for contested jumpers?
2) Are we winning the foul game?
If I'm Rafferty, those are my keys to the game. If we're not putting them on the line, and we keep working the ball inside like we have been... then I think we have an excellent shot to win. My concern is that we'll be overly aggressive, Nova will get some favorable calls, and we'll be passive on the perimeter swinging the ball around.