Bracketology

Were not going to the tourney without winning the BET. Bubble teams ahead of us are getting huge wins everynoght. I'm an optimist and unfortunately upon watching the prov highlights it hit me. We MIGHT sniff a bid with a loss in the title, but even then it's not a sure thing.

To have DePaul and PSU back.....

PSU is no the killer, losing to DePaul and starting 0-5 is. I would much rather have the DePaul and Providence game back then the Penn game back.  Hopefully the team's mindset is back on track after and emotional week and they can string some wins together. 

The Big East is getting 3 to 4 teams in.

The loss to Nova hurt for resume and Xavier was absolutely crushing as St. John's will not be the #3 seed going into BET.

Other teams around the country have won their must win games lately putting St. John's further off the bubble.

Absolutely correct.  And imo Lavin mailed in a winnable game at Nova by having Sanchez take a personal day instead of having him drive to Providence after the game.  It may be unpopular but is true.  No doubt it is an important thing for Sanchez having had a baby a few days before, but we had a hobbled Obekpa and sent Sanchez off on the most important game of the year.  That IMO was the big killer for us.  Had we won that game, we'd be looking in decent shape.  We were lucky to have had DePaul on the schedule when we sent Rysheed back to Philly.  Now we need miracles unfortunately.

Quote from: Dave on March 04, 2014, 04:40:46 PM

The Big East is getting 3 to 4 teams in.

The loss to Nova hurt for resume and Xavier was absolutely crushing as St. John's will not be the #3 seed going into BET.

Other teams around the country have won their must win games lately putting St. John's further off the bubble.

Absolutely correct.  And imo Lavin mailed in a winnable game at Nova by having Sanchez take a personal day instead of having him drive to Providence after the game.  It may be unpopular but is true.  No doubt it is an important thing for Sanchez having had a baby a few days before, but we had a hobbled Obekpa and sent Sanchez off on the most important game of the year.  That IMO was the big killer for us.  Had we won that game, we'd be looking in decent shape.  We were lucky to have had DePaul on the schedule when we sent Rysheed back to Philly.  Now we need miracles unfortunately.

Good post, MCN.   I agree that it's not sacrilegious to question if Sanchez could've played in that game.   I'm not going to kill the guy for not playing, but he could've.   It's not asking too much.

But as much as the Nova game could've drastically changed our fortunes, I feel the same way about the Depaul/Providence games from early in the season.   Those were winnable games that we gave away.    I don't want to start the debate anew, but coach's moves late in those games (Hooper on the inbound?) really hurt us.   

The killer was the Providence game.  That W would have effectively put us on the inside of the bubble and them on the outside.  But every bubble team can point to one or two close games that they should have won.  Can't focus on that right now

Winning our next three (tough but winnable games) would give us 22 wins and put our RPI in the high 40s.  Do that and we are in. 

On the other hand, we could have lost to Seton hall - twice -   and lost another game or two we won.

Quote from: Dave on March 04, 2014, 04:40:46 PM

The Big East is getting 3 to 4 teams in.

The loss to Nova hurt for resume and Xavier was absolutely crushing as St. John's will not be the #3 seed going into BET.

Other teams around the country have won their must win games lately putting St. John's further off the bubble.

Absolutely correct.  And imo Lavin mailed in a winnable game at Nova by having Sanchez take a personal day instead of having him drive to Providence after the game.  It may be unpopular but is true.  No doubt it is an important thing for Sanchez having had a baby a few days before, but we had a hobbled Obekpa and sent Sanchez off on the most important game of the year.  That IMO was the big killer for us.  Had we won that game, we'd be looking in decent shape.  We were lucky to have had DePaul on the schedule when we sent Rysheed back to Philly.  Now we need miracles unfortunately.

Probably three teams in if either Villanova, Creighton or Xavier win the BET.  The Atlantic 10 may get seven in...the AAC will get five.  That's a lot of spaces.  I'm convinced we're out if we don't win the tournament.  The Marquette game doesn't matter except for our seeding. 

One problem is Lavin thrives on drama.  The team doesn't, but he does.  The built in excuses he creates may make the NIT seem more palatable in the final analysis.

The Marquette game doesn't matter except for our seeding.

Don't tell the team. 

I disagree.

The people who are saying we can't make the tournament without winning the BET, are you taking into consideration that if we win 3 more games, it would greatly improve our quality wins total, which is the sole reason we are on the outside looking in. Let's say we beat Marquette, providence, and Villanova/creighton. That will most definitely get us in. That would be 3 quality wins to close out the season.

The people who are saying we can't make the tournament without winning the BET, are you taking into consideration that if we win 3 more games, it would greatly improve our quality wins total, which is the sole reason we are on the outside looking in. Let's say we beat Marquette, providence, and Villanova/creighton. That will most definitely get us in. That would be 3 quality wins to close out the season.

I had posted the info (at the bottom of this post) last year.  The data was for the old BE, which probably was considered a stronger conference than the 10 team league it is now.   21 wins was a 64% (2/3rd chance) of making the tourney.  But with a high RPI and only one quality win (and 0 quality road wins).  I think we would be in the 1/3rd part of that stat.  The odds are obviously much better with 22 wins, but even that isn't a guarantee. 

On top of all that is the fact that we will be playing at least 32 games this year … which is more than a typical year.  Meaning 22 wins and 10 losses is not as impressive as 22 wins and 8 losses (Call me Captain obvious).


I found a site with BE results since 93-94.  Please excuse any human error:

Results    NCAA Tourney  RPI
17 wins   1 of 9   (11%)    37
18 wins   2 of 12 (16%)    49, 58
19 wins   3 of 15 (20%)    25, 45, 57
20 wins   10 of 19 (53%)  range 25-70 ... curiously StJ had a 70 RPI and made it
                                    of the nine teams who didn't get it (42, 47 , 49, 54 , 56x2, 68 x2, 71)
21 win    9 of 14  (64%) 
22 win    9 of 11  (82%)
23 win    only one team didn't make it with 23, Syracuse in 2001-2002 with an RPI of 25
24 win    only one team didn't make it with 24, Syracuse with an RPI of 50

The site didn't have Strength of Schedule ... but that is a factor in RPI.
The total wins probably include NCAA tournament wins, so there is some error in the data for teams who did make it in, but not for those who did not make it.

So based on this data, StJ with a 20 win season has about a 50/50 chance of making it, based on Stats only.  I do realize that other factors are taken into consideration.

The people who are saying we can't make the tournament without winning the BET, are you taking into consideration that if we win 3 more games, it would greatly improve our quality wins total, which is the sole reason we are on the outside looking in. Let's say we beat Marquette, providence, and Villanova/creighton. That will most definitely get us in. That would be 3 quality wins to close out the season.

Seems to me half the people here are of the belief that we have to win the BET to get in and the other half think all we need is 2 wins to get in. I agree with you and think if we beat Marquette, Prov/Xavier, and Nova/Creighton we are in good shape. Anything less and there will be at least one more game at CA this season

Quote from: redstorm212 on March 05, 2014, 02:54:18 PM

The people who are saying we can't make the tournament without winning the BET, are you taking into consideration that if we win 3 more games, it would greatly improve our quality wins total, which is the sole reason we are on the outside looking in. Let's say we beat Marquette, providence, and Villanova/creighton. That will most definitely get us in. That would be 3 quality wins to close out the season.

Seems to me half the people here are of the belief that we have to win the BET to get in and the other half think all we need is 2 wins to get in. I agree with you and think if we beat Marquette, Prov/Xavier, and Nova/Creighton we are in good shape. Anything less and there will be at least one more game at CA this season

If it was up to few people on this board, the johnnies would not get in with a BET title.

Quote from: goredmen on March 05, 2014, 03:54:00 PM

Quote from: redstorm212 on March 05, 2014, 02:54:18 PM

The people who are saying we can't make the tournament without winning the BET, are you taking into consideration that if we win 3 more games, it would greatly improve our quality wins total, which is the sole reason we are on the outside looking in. Let's say we beat Marquette, providence, and Villanova/creighton. That will most definitely get us in. That would be 3 quality wins to close out the season.

Seems to me half the people here are of the belief that we have to win the BET to get in and the other half think all we need is 2 wins to get in. I agree with you and think if we beat Marquette, Prov/Xavier, and Nova/Creighton we are in good shape. Anything less and there will be at least one more game at CA this season

If it was up to few people on this board, the johnnies would not get in with a BET title.

Well duh this is a water down BE so it really doesn't count! #sarcasm

The bubble is turning out to be really strong this year.

With all these bubble teams picking up big wins this week it looks like 3 wins would make us no better than a bubble team on selection Sunday

Colorado. Dayton, Missouri, Tennessee , Arkansas, Nebraska all bubble teams win. What are the odds of that?

All these teams are winning, bad for us.

we can't afford to lose a game, need to win the next 3.

If we lose on Sat, we have to win BET.

So remember how I said it would be highly unlikely that all the other bubble teams win out making two wins no longer an option to make the dance? 
Crap...

Quote from: goredmen on March 05, 2014, 03:54:00 PM

Quote from: redstorm212 on March 05, 2014, 02:54:18 PM

The people who are saying we can't make the tournament without winning the BET, are you taking into consideration that if we win 3 more games, it would greatly improve our quality wins total, which is the sole reason we are on the outside looking in. Let's say we beat Marquette, providence, and Villanova/creighton. That will most definitely get us in. That would be 3 quality wins to close out the season.

Seems to me half the people here are of the belief that we have to win the BET to get in and the other half think all we need is 2 wins to get in. I agree with you and think if we beat Marquette, Prov/Xavier, and Nova/Creighton we are in good shape. Anything less and there will be at least one more game at CA this season

If it was up to few people on this board, the johnnies would not get in with a BET title.

can we mark this down as the most idiotic post of the year?

Quote from: Tiznow on March 05, 2014, 09:47:43 PM

Quote from: goredmen on March 05, 2014, 03:54:00 PM

Quote from: redstorm212 on March 05, 2014, 02:54:18 PM

The people who are saying we can't make the tournament without winning the BET, are you taking into consideration that if we win 3 more games, it would greatly improve our quality wins total, which is the sole reason we are on the outside looking in. Let's say we beat Marquette, providence, and Villanova/creighton. That will most definitely get us in. That would be 3 quality wins to close out the season.

Seems to me half the people here are of the belief that we have to win the BET to get in and the other half think all we need is 2 wins to get in. I agree with you and think if we beat Marquette, Prov/Xavier, and Nova/Creighton we are in good shape. Anything less and there will be at least one more game at CA this season

If it was up to few people on this board, the johnnies would not get in with a BET title.

can we mark this down as the most idiotic post of the year?

Well I think Needs2go racked up over 100 posts, so it wouldn't even be in the top 100 idiotic posts. And sadly, he is correct in a way. Whether people want to admit it or not, there are posters here who relish in the team's failures.